In the comments of my previous diary, David suggested that I do Nickajack next. My first thought? "What the hell is this Nickajack?" My second thought, however, was that it was a very interesting idea. I'm going to forgo giving you a lengthy overview of the history involved, and instead direct you to the wonderful Civil War Omnibus's breakdown.
In this diary I will present four things: firstly, I will give a redistricting breakdown of this new state Nickajack; secondly, I will present Tennessee in its new form absent its extremely Republican eastern third; thirdly, I will give you Alabama without its northern section; and finally, I will give you Alabama minus both the portion which counter-seceded into Nickajack and the portion which would be covered in my previous diary: West Florida.
I'll also give a partisan breakdown at the end of this diary combined with the previous diary. I.E. The states of Tennessee, Nickajack, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, West Florida, and East Florida.
A note on the map just below: Dade County, Georgia is mistakenly included. My maps, given Dade County's extreme Confederate nature and the fact that - well - it simply has nothing to do with Nickajack, do not include it. Interestingly, despite its Confederate-ness, it only had road connections to the Alabama and Tennessee portions which make up Nickajack (I.E. it was isolated from Georgia) until 1939. I have to give the mapmaker credit, though, where that credit is due because Nickajack certainly looks more sleek with than without the Georgia county.
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Nickajack
5 Republican - 0 Democratic - 0 Swing
Nickajack would probably have always been a solidly Republican state as the portions of Tennessee included (which have always been Republican) have double the population of the portions of Alabama included (which used to be Democratic, but are now Republican). The state has just over 3.5 million people, which is enough to give it 5 districts, all of which would be held by Republicans.
District 1 (Blue): A district based in Decatur. It would have been Democratic up until probably 1994, but surely would have taken a hard turn to the Republican that year. Overwhelmingly white (remember, the point of Nickajack was that these areas were not slave-holding).
District 2 (Green): A district based in Huntsville with some Chattanooga suburbs. You can repeat everything that I said about district 2.
District 3 (Purple): This district is based in Chattanooga, but also takes in some Knoxville suburbs and exurbs. Just like the other two districts, it is solidly Republican.
District 4 (Red): This district is based in Knoxville. Nothing much else needs to be said about it that hasn't already been covered.
District 5 (Yellow): This district is based in the Tri-Cities: Kingsport, Johnson City, and Bristol. Before now, I'd never heard of this urban agglomeration. Apparently, it packs some serious punch in Tennessee and is the size of more "known" cities like Beaumont or Salem, Oregon.
Tennessee
2 Republicans - 3 Democratic - 1 Swing
Total: 7 Republican - 3 Democratic - 1 Swing
Tennessee, now - minus the eastern third - with 4 million residents and 6 district, takes a HUGE turn to the Democrats. Obama would only have narrowly lost this state 52.7 to 47.3. The margin is narrow enough that I'd venture to assume Obama would have poured money into the state making a win more likely a la North Carolina. Just as with the excising of Florida's panhandle into a separate state caused Al Gore to win that state, Tennessee would have been won narrowly by Al Gore. The margin in 2000 was 52-48 for Bush, if we assume a similar swing when taking out East Tennessee Gore would have won 52-48. Obviously we could go tally the county results for a more accurate picture, but such a method would ignore the contrarian history. Anyway, Gore was narrowly our President.
District 1 (Blue): Given that Democrats would still probably be in charge in this state (albeit narrowly), this district removes a large portion of African American voters for the party's advantage. It is still African-American majority, however, at just over 50%. Obama won this district 65-35 and Democrats score a 60-40 average here. As it stands, this Memphis district is safely Democratic. In fact, I think that Steve Cohen would probably be safer from a primary challenge in this district than he would in a district with a higher percentage of African American voters.
District 2 (Green): Where did those extra African Americans go? Into the second district, where they aid in making this district a tossup. This district was narrowly lost by Obama (53-47 for McCain), but the Democratic performance is a hell of alot better at 50-50. A Blue Dog would be narrowly favored here, but for now I'm going to rank this seat as the first swing district of this diary. Oh, and the demographics? 60% are white and 35% are African American.
District 3 (Purple): Splitting Nashville, though risky, results in two likely Democratic districts. This one takes in the extremely African American portions of Nashville (resulting in the district having a 15% African American minority) and heads west to cover Clarksville and other historically heavily Democratic rural areas. I'm tallying this district, where whites make up a 75% majority, as a Democratic seat as the Democratic performance is 55-45 here. Obama, on the other hand, split the district evenly with McCain.
District 4 (Red): The other Nashville district takes in the more multiethnic areas and ventures to the Southeast to grab Murfreesboro. This district, interestingly, has a different partisan dynamic than the third. Obama won here 52-48, but Democrats do worse: only winning 53-47. Despite the close margins, I'm calling this district as Democratic. The urban trends augur well for us, and as Nashville grows we'll be able to lock in that performance.
District 5 (Yellow): The first Republican district actually takes in some historically Democratic areas, but with no large cities to connect them to to temper their move away from the Democrats it made more sense to just connect them to super-Republican counties and create a vote-sink. Safe Republican.
District 6 (Teal): Rinse and repeat what was written for the fifth. Safe Republican.
Alabama
3 Republican - 2 Democratic - 0 Swing
Total: 10 Republican - 5 Democratic - 1 Swing
Alabama, now without the northern slave-minimal areas, also has around 3.5 million people. This entitles it to five districts. I was able to craft two African American majority districts here. It was really difficult, mind you, which surprised me, because in Alabama, in its full glory, it is generally easy to draw two VRA districts.
District 1 (Blue): This safely Republican district is based in the Birmingham suburbs. Overwhelmingly white (80%), it also has a sliver down to Montgomery to take in some whiter areas that couldn't be absorbed by the third.
District 2 (Green): This is the first of the African American majority district (51%). It takes in the inner city areas of Birmingham, the ventures out to Tuscaloosa, Demopolis, and Selma to make up the population requirement.
District 3 (Purple): Another safely Republican district which is based in Gadsden. As I said in the previous diary, I am usually hesitant to use water-contiguity, but in order to satisfy the VRA it was necessary. It actually doesn't look bad here, as if the yellow district simply overlaps the purple one.
District 4 (Red): The final safely Republican district is based in the white suburbs of Mobile. Just like all southern Republican districts, it is overwhelmingly white (80%).
District 5 (Yellow): The other African American VRA district (51%) takes in the minority areas of Mobile, Montgomery, parts of Selma, and Columbus (obviously in Georgia, but its the core of the metropolitan area, so sue me).
Alabama
3 Republican - 1 Democratic - 0 Swing
Total: 10 Republican - 4 Democratic - 1 Swing
As promised, I present a combination of this diary and my last diary. After losing Mobile, Alabama is now only entitled to four districts. This actually works out in the favor of the Republican Party, as opposed to everything else in this contrarian history working out in favor of the Democrats (well... perhaps except, as well, for the Senate, where they would have control more often). This is because in this scenario it is both impossible to draw a second majority minority district, as with the Alabama above, or to draw a heavily African American swing district, as with the previous diary. Here's a quick rundown:
District 1 (Blue): Safe Republican white district based in the Birmingham suburbs.
District 2 (Green): African-American majority district based in Birmingham.
District 3 (Purple): Safe Republican district based in Gadsden with a sizable African American minority (25%).
District 4 (Red): Southern Alabama district based in Montgomery. Only 35% is African American, which is just under where I'd like it to be in order to classify it as a swing district.
26 Republican - 19 Democratic - 8 Swing
This summary takes into consideration Louisiana, Mississippi, West Florida, and East Florida from my previous diary, Tennessee and Nickajack from this diary, and the version of Alabama (from this diary) which is the smallest and has only 4 districts.
Let's allot the swing districts to the parties (half to each), ending with a final breakdown of 30-23. This is compared to the current breakdown in these states of 41-11 (the numbers don't add up because of reapportionment). This relative gain of seats alone would put us within striking distance of retaking the House. Granted, 2010 would have wiped us out in both Florida (probably leaving us with no more than the 6 seats we have there now) and Tennessee (likely giving us only Memphis's first district), but we'd come back strongly in any neutral year.