rankings crossposted as sk7326's personal site:
So a funny thing happened on the way to the rankings last week. My job struck, and so events both complicated and boring struck and so you were left without an NFL pecking order to criticize. That said, now that we have made the turn - the teams are starting to take some shape. What is interesting is that while anybody can figure out who the Top 2 teams are - the remainder of the Top 10 is very muddled. To wit, look at the contenders.
Patriots - Lost to the Giants, routed the Jets
Jets - routed the Bills, lost to the Patriots
Ravens - beat the Steelers, lost to the Seabags
Steelers - lost to the Ravens, beat the Bengals
Bengals - beat the Titans, lost to the Steelers
Giants - beat the Patriots, lost to the 49ers
In a way, you are throwing a blanket over the entire field ... As always the rankings are a pairwise analysis (each team vs each other team) on the basis of RPI, adjusted scoring margin, record vs good teams, record vs common opponents and head to head.
The 11/1 rankings in parentheses
1 (1). Green Bay Packers (9-0) 31 pairwins
2 (2). San Francisco 49ers (8-1) 30
3 (5). Baltimore Edgar Allan Poems (6-3) 29
4 (8). New Orleans Saints (7-3) 28
5 (6). Greater Boston and Providence Patriots (6-3) 26
6 (9). Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) 25
7 (12). Chicago Bears (6-3) 24
8 (4). Detroit Lions (6-3) 23
9 (10). Houston Texans (7-3) 23
10 (19). Northern New Jersey Giants (6-3) 20
11 (7). Cincinnati Other Paul Browns (6-3) 20
12 (15). Northern New Jersey Jets (5-4) 19
13 (20). Dallas Cowboys (5-4) 18
14 (11). Atlanta Falcons (5-4) 17
15 (3). Buffalo Bills (5-4) 17
16 (14). Los Angeles Raiders of Oakland (5-4) 16
17 (18). Tennessee Non Oilers (5-4) 15
18 (24). Denver Incompletion Jesuses (4-5) 14 (h/t Charlie Pierce)
19 (17). Land Mass Surrounding Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) 13
20 (16). Los Angeles Chargers of San Diego (4-5) 11
21 (13). Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) 11
22 (23). Seattle Seahawks (3-6) 10
23 (25). Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) 9
24 (21). Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) 9
25 (22). Washington Racial Slurs (3-6) 7
26 (26). Minnesota Vikings (2-7) 4
27 (32). Miami Dolphins (2-7) 4
28 (30). Arizona Cactus Wrens (3-6) 3
29 (29). Saint Louis Rams (2-7) 3
30 (27). Cleveland Paul Browns (3-6) 2
31 (28). Carolina Panthers (2-7) 1
32 (31). Peyton Manning's Co-Workers (0-10) 0
The schedule rankings (opponents W/L, and opponents SoS/opponents opponents SoS)
The 8 toughest
Detroit Lions (41-31, .547)
Chicago Bears (41-32, .542)
Tampa Bay Bucs (43-33, .539)
New England Patriots (41-32, .535)
Seattle Seahawks (43-30, .533)
Denver Broncos (41-31, .526)
New York Jets (38-34, .526)
Dallas Cowboys (37-35, .522)
The 8 easiest
Houston Texans (39-44, .483)
Miami Dolphins (35-38, .478)
Tennessee Titans (34-41, .475)
New York Giants (32-40, .474)
Cleveland Browns (32-42, .468)
Washington Redskins (30-42, .454)
Kansas City Chiefs (27-46, .448)
Arizona Cardinals (28-45, .445)
The most common complaint about the rankings was how it was under-ranking the Giants as they went 5-2 against a pretty pathetic slate of opponents. But as the schedule has turned, so have they risen. Even with a good loss to the 49ers, the Giants have moved up to about where they probably should be. The way the league has been the last two weeks, it is hard to argue any of the 6-3 or 7-3 teams over the other. There are all good cases - or all bad cases (whatever works here).
If you start to peel the playoff onion - and with Thursday games ramping up and the league now over halfway done, it does not seem too early to start looking down the road. One of the quirks of the 32 team, 8 division league is that the four division teams SHOULD have identical schedules at the end of the season (only changing by a couple of games and taking out the redundant games). So some schedule analysis can reveal some things.
AFC East: Patriots, Jets, Bills ... respectively. The Patriots with a sweep of the Jets, a game clear of the Bills, and a lot of cushion schedulewise feel like they are in the drivers seat.
AFC South: Texans. Next.
AFC North: Steelers, Ravens, Bengals ... none of these schedules are too daunting with the division drawing the NFC West this year. That said, with the Bengals having three more games against the other two, there feels like a chance that their dream will end soon. But the defense is there.
AFC West: One 5-4 team. Somebody has to win the division. Denver has played more of its toughest opponents than the other teams - but it is really hard to picture Incompletion Jesus being able to win running the single wing. That said, Oakland is a team one can pick with no conviction whatsoever. It is hard to envision a wild card emerging from this pile.
Realistically: the Patriots with their remaining schedule and the top North team have inside track on byes probably. However the Texans with the lack of resistance in the division could get a bye with an inflated record. Some AFC West team will make it, and so the question is, between the Bengals, the AFC North runner up, and the Jets and Bills, which two teams will go on?
NFC East: The Giants have played a very easy slate, and now are starting to work through their difficult opponents. The Cowboys played their difficult opponents early. So while a game behind the Cowboys are probably in a better position the rest of the way.
NFC South: The Saints at 7-3 lead the pack. The Falcons at 5-4 are the only realistic case now to supplant them, but the head to head is daunting.
NFC North: I think the Packers might get in. The Lions and Bears are where it gets interesting. The Lions were very strong early, but the Bears have played great football as of late. As unstable as Jay Cutler is, the Bears can win with him, especially when they run the ball.
NFC West: Let's move on
So the Packers and 49ers are rather overwhelming favorites for the byes. So if the Saints and somebody in the NFC East will win the other division slots. The Wild Card at this point feels like two of the Falcons, the NFC East loser, the Bears and the Lions.
As always, if you want a more serious thread, there are plenty to choose from on this site. :)