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Republicans currently control 32/160 seats, or 20% in the Massachusetts State House of Representatives. In a state where Republicans usually get ~35-40% statewide, that's a severe underperformance.
I'm absolutely fascinated by this, and because of my interest, I set out to draw a map that would allow Republicans to have a chance in the Bay State.
I'm heading up to Massachusetts tonight, and I'm glad to have finished my trifecta of Massachusetts maps.

So... is it possible to get to 81?

All ratings presume an open seat scenario.

Enjoy.

The Spirit of America: Massachusetts
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Southeastern Massachusetts:
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Metro Boston:
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Wihstah (Worcester), Springfield, and the rest of Central and Western Massachusetts:
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Oh, and some day, I'll be Governor. Heh.

First Berkshire.
Rating: Safe D.
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Second Berkshire
Rating: Safe D.
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Third Berkshire
Rating: Safe D.
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Berkshire, Hampshire, and Franklin
Rating: Safe D.
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Franklin and Hampshire
Rating: Safe D.
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Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden
Rating: Safe D.
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First Hampshire
Rating: Safe D.
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Second Hampshire
Rating: Safe D.
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First Hampshire and Hampden:
Rating: Leans D
(R opportunity #1)
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Second Hampshire and Hampden:
Rating: Toss Up
(R opportunity #2)
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First Hampden
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #3)
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Second Hampden
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #4)
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Third Hampden
Rating: Safe D.
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Fourth Hampden
Rating: Safe D.
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Fifth Hampden
Rating: Safe D.
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Sixth Hampden
Rating: Safe D
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Seventh Hampden
Rating: Toss Up
(R Opportunity #5)
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Eighth Hampden
Rating: Safe D.
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Ninth Hampden
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #6)
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Hampden and Worcester:
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #7)
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Hampshire and Worcester
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #8)
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First Worcester
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #9)
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Second Worcester
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #10)
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Third Worcester
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #11)
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Fourth Worcester
Rating: Safe D
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Fifth Worcester
Rating: Safe D
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Sixth Worcester
Rating: Safe D
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Seventh Worcester
Rating: Safe D
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Eighth Worcester
Rating: Likely D
(R Opportunity #12)
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Ninth Worcester
Rating: Leans D
(R Opportunity #13)
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Tenth Worcester
Rating: Likely R
(R Opportunity #14)
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Eleventh Worcester
Rating: Likely R
(R Opportunity #15)
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Twelfth Worcester
Rating: Likely R
(R Opportunity #16)
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Thirteenth Worcester
Ignore the discontinuity. Pretend I fixed it... I noticed it as I was writing this up.
Rating: Likely R
(R Opportunity #17)
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Fourteenth Worcester
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #18)
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Fifteenth Worcester
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #19)
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Sixteenth Worcester
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #20)
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First Worcester and Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #21)
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Second Worcester and Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R Opportunity #22)

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Third Worcester and Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Fourth Worcester and Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R #23)
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First Middlesex
Rating: Leans D
(R #24)
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Second Middlesex
Rating: Toss Up
(R #25)
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Third Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R #26)
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Fourth Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R #27)
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Fifth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Sixth Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R #28)
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First Essex
Rating: Leans R
(R #29)
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Second Essex
Rating: Safe D
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Third Essex
Rating: Safe D
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Fourth Essex
Rating: Leans R
(R #30)
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Fifth Essex
Rating: Leans R
(R #31)
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Sixth Essex
Rating: Toss Up
(R #32)
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Seventh Essex
Rating: Leans R
(R #33)
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Eighth Essex
Rating: Leans R
(R #34)
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Ninth Essex
Rating: Safe D
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Tenth Essex
Rating: Likely D
(R #35)
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Eleventh Essex
Rating: Safe D
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Twelfth Essex
Rating: Leans R
(R #36)
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Thirteenth Essex
Rating: Safe D
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Fourteenth Essex
Rating: Leans R
(R #37)
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Fifteenth Essex
Rating: Leans R
(R #38)
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Sixteenth Essex
Rating: Likely D
(R #39)
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Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk
Rating: Leans D
(R #40)
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Essex and Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Seventh Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R #41)
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Eighth Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R #42)
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Middlesex and Essex
Rating: Likely R
(R #43)
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Ninth Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R #44)

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Tenth Middlesex
Rating: Likely R
(R #45)
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Eleventh Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R #46)
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Twelfth Middlesex
Rating: Leans R
(R #47)
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Thirteenth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Fourteenth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Fifteenth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Sixteenth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Seventeenth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Eighteenth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Nineteenth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Twentieth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Twenty-first Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Twenty-second Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Twenty-third Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Twenty-fourth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Twenty-fifth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Twenty-sixth Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Twenty-seventh Middlesex
Rating: Safe D
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Twenty-eighth Middlesex
Rating: Leans D
(R #48)
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Twenty-ninth Middlesex
Rating: Likely R
(R #49)
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First Middlesex and Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Second Middlesex and Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Third Middlesex and Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Fourth Middlesex and Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Fifth Middlesex and Suffolk
Rating: Leans D
(R #50)
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First Suffolk
Rating: Toss Up
(R #51)

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Second Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Third Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Fourth Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Fifth Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Sixth Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Seventh Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Eighth Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Ninth Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Tenth Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Eleventh Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Twelfth Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Thirteenth Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Fourteenth Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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First Middlesex and Norfolk
Rating: Safe D
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Second Middlesex and Norfolk
Rating: Safe D
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Third Middlesex and Norfolk
Rating: Leans D
(R #52)

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Fourth Middlesex and Norfolk
This district disappointed me the most... I tried hard to make it competitive, but it just wouldn't budge.
Rating: Safe D
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First Norfolk and Suffolk
Rating: Safe D
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Second Norfolk and Suffolk
Rating: Leans R
(R #53)
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First Norfolk
Rating: Safe D
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Worcester, Middlesex, and Norfolk
Rating: Leans R
(R #54)
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First Norfolk
Rating: Safe D
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Second Norfolk
Rating: Safe D
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Third Norfolk
Rating: Leans R
(R #55)
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Fourth Norfolk
Rating: Toss Up
(R #56)
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Fifth Norfolk
Rating: Toss Up
(R #57)
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Sixth Norfolk
Rating: Leans D
(R #58)
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Seventh Norfolk
Rating: Likely D
(R #59)
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Eighth Norfolk
Rating: Leans R
(R #60)
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First Norfolk and Plymouth
Rating: Leans R
(R #61)
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Second Norfolk and Plymouth
Rating: Toss Up
(R #62)
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Third Norfolk and Plymouth
Rating: Toss Up
(R #63)
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Fourth Norfolk and Plymouth
Rating: Safe D
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Norfolk and Bristol
Rating: Likely R
(R #64)
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Norfolk, Bristol, and Plymouth
Rating: Leans R
(R #65)
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First Plymouth
Rating: Safe D
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Second Plymouth
Rating: Likely R
(R #66)
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Third Plymouth
Rating: Likely R
(R #67)
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Fourth Plymouth
Rating: Likely R
(R #68)
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Fifth Plymouth
Rating: Likely R
(R #69)
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Sixth Plymouth
Rating: Likely R
(R #70)
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Seventh Plymouth
Rating: Likely R
(R #71)
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Eighth Plymouth
Rating: Likely R
(R #72)
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Ninth Plymouth
Rating: Leans R
(R #73)
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First Bristol
Rating: Likely R
(R #74)
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Second Bristol
Rating: Leans R
(R #75)
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Third Bristol
Rating: Toss Up
(R #76)
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Fourth Bristol
Rating: Toss Up
(R #77)
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Fifth Bristol
Rating: Toss Up
(R #78)
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Sixth Bristol
Rating: Safe D
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Seventh Bristol
Rating: Safe D
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Eighth Bristol
Rating: Safe D
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Ninth Bristol
Rating: Safe D
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Tenth Bristol
Rating: Safe D
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Eleventh Bristol
Rating: Safe D
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First Bristol and Plymouth
Rating: Leans R
(R #79)
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Second Bristol and Plymouth
Rating: Toss Up
(R #80)
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Barnstable and Dukes
Rating: Leans R
(R #81)
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Plymouth and Barnstable
Rating: Leans R
(R #82)
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First Barnstable
Rating: Leans R
(R #83)
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Second Barnstable
It's sure odd to think of the Kennedy Compound in Hyannis potentially being represented by a Republican.
Rating: Toss Up
(R #84)
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Third Barnstable
Rating: Leans D
(R #85)
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Cape and the Islands
Ugly, but a great COI
Rating: Safe D
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Additions that I missed before...

Franklin and Worcester
Rating: Leans R
(R #86)
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There you have it; It is possible Republicans could have 86 potential Republican State House seats in Massachusetts.

My math is one seat off, as I only have 73 safe D seats and not 74, and it's really bothering me, so if you find my error, I'll be REALLY, REALLY happy.

Ratings:
73 Safe D
4 Likely D
9 Leans D
15 Toss Up
43 Leans R
16 Likely R
Safe R... This rating does not yet exist in Massachusetts.

Poll

How many seats would be the Republican ceiling here?

10%2 votes
20%4 votes
10%2 votes
15%3 votes
20%4 votes
25%5 votes

| 20 votes | Vote | Results

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