This round of fantasy redistricting explores what might happen if Staten Island, the forgotten Fifth Borough of New York City, decided to leave New York and join New Jersey. I've drawn my maps to favor Democrats without being unduly realistic. Feedback is certainly welcome.
This diary is all for fun, so do have fun reading it.
Staten Island is actually closer to mainland New Jersey than it is to the other four boroughs of New York City, which is why this map looks, well, entirely reasonable. As a result of the Staten Island transfer, New Jersey holds steady at 13 districts instead of losing one. This map is Democrat-friendly without being an insane-o-mander; with this diary, I'm really looking at ways Democrats can reasonably benefit from redistricting after the Staten Island transfer, maps that a tripartisan commission or a legislative compromise might reasonably produce if Democrats pushed hard. I think I've got thumbnails that include parts of every district. Let's take a closer look.
NJ-01 (blue): Rep. Rob Andrews (D) - 62.5% Obama, 37.5% McCain
Functionally, Andrews's district changes little, though it now stretches down as far as the Delaware state line. While it's possible to further unpack Andrews's district in order to weaken Republican Rep. Frank LoBiondo more, I've opted for a different approach here. Andrews should be untouchable in this district, which heavily favors Democrats. Safe Democratic.
NJ-02 (green): Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) - 45.7% Obama, 54.3% McCain
What I've actually done is say "to hell with it" and given LoBiondo, who appears to have hit an item box containing the political equivalent of a Star from the Mario Kart games, a Jersey Shore district that no Republican should lose. I originally drew four competitive districts in South Jersey, but I realized that could easily backfire in a Republican wave year, and LoBiondo wasn't likely to lose even a district that then-Sen. Barack Obama won by double digits in 2008. This is because LoBiondo is basically what would have happened if the Empire had completed the second Death Star. Screw that. Safe Republican.
NJ-03 (purple): Rep. Jon Runyan (R) - 56.7% Obama, 43.3% McCain
Allowing LoBiondo free rein has given me the ability to feed Runyan into the electoral woodchipper. Runyan shouldn't be able to hold on here, with a district that takes in almost half of Camden County and really very little ardently Republican territory at all. His win last year was a fluke in its own right; he hasn't demonstrated much in the way of political talent, he frankly doesn't seem very bright, and an organized Democratic effort should knock him off easily in even a mildly Republican cycle. Likely Democratic.
NJ-04 (red): Reps. Christopher Smith (R) and Frank Pallone (D) - 57.4% Obama, 42.6% McCain
This is both my favorite district on the map and probably the most overt indication of partisan intent in drawing it. By combining Trenton with Long Branch and other fairly liberal parts of coastal Monmouth County while excluding as much of the Republican interior and conservative Trenton suburbs as possible, I've drawn a strongly Democratic district in which frequently-targeted Pallone should be able to edge Smith. The presidential numbers here should slightly undercount Obama's vote totals, as a clump of precincts in Trenton are missing election data in DRA. Likely Democratic with Smith, Safe Democratic without Smith.
NJ-05 (yellow): Rep. Rush Holt (D) - 54.8% Obama, 45.2% McCain
Rush Holt! The only rocket scientist in Congress takes a hit here, with the Obama/McCain margin contracting by six points, but he should be able to deal with it; he underperformed Obama's numbers in a Republican wave last year against a touted opponent by less than that. This district doesn't really contain any major population centers, mostly just taking up light red, swingish, and blue areas in inland Central Jersey. Likely Democratic with Holt, Lean Democratic without Holt.
NJ-06 (sienna): OPEN - 60.9% Obama, 39.1% McCain
Yes, I did it: I was able to create a new Middlesex County-based seat for Jun Choi or another prominent local Democrat. This district also takes up the northernmost part of New Jersey's seacoast. While this district lacks an incumbent, a Middlesex County Democrat should win here pretty easily. Actually, this district is 50.1% white, and with a bit of precinct-splitting, it could probably be made narrowly minority-majority, though I didn't intend it to be that way. Safe Democratic.
NJ-07 (magenta): Reps. Leonard Lance (R), Scott Garrett (R), and Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) - 43.6% Obama, 56.4% McCain
And here's how I was able to create that open Middlesex County district. After all, there's no reason to have three Republicans when you can have one! Lance and Frelinghuysen currently have districts that look competitive but aren't; Garrett's district has lost population. So what better thing to do deathmatch the three of them in a dark-red district? I think Frelinghuysen would probably emerge victorious, being a senior member of Congress and having a mostly intact base here. Safe Republican.
NJ-08 (teal): OPEN - 53.3% Obama, 46.7% McCain
I don't think any incumbent lives here, making this another new district. It takes up the middle area of North Jersey and effectively serves to sponge up white Democrats. Frelinghuysen or another of the Republicans crammed into NJ-07 might want to make a run here, but as drawn, this district probably narrowly favors a Democrat. Tossup/Tilt Democratic.
NJ-09 (orange): Rep. Steve Rothman (D) - 47.4% Obama, 52.6% McCain
Rothman is not my favorite Democrat, although maybe it's not fair to blame him for having not known that his chief of staff for years and years was a pedophile, or for blowing a wad of cash on a slam-dunk reelection bid in 2008 for no apparent reason, or for being a corrupt bastard who has had no qualms about using his political influence to help out lobbyists and campaign contributors close to his office. Anyway, I'm not that sad that he ends up in a tight spot under these lines. He might actually jump districts to run in NJ-08 or another friendlier district, because I don't see his incumbency as offering much refuge from the Republican bent of this new suburban district he gets. Garrett might actually decide to run here, as this district contains a considerable number of his current constituents. Likely Republican.
NJ-10 (maroon): Reps. William Pascrell (D) and Albio Sires (D) - 72.9% Obama, 27.7% McCain [52.9% Latino majority]
It's Pascrell's bad luck, obviously, that he lives in this district drawn obviously for Sires or another Democrat. His home city of Paterson is now heavily Latino, and the district takes in all of it as part of its earmuffs between North Bergen and north Newark to help keep its Latino percentage above 50% and avoid any charges of retrogression. Sires has been the subject of some retirement speculation, but the primary here will obviously favor him if he runs for reelection, and if Latino Democrats can coalesce around another candidate if and when Sires hangs it up, that candidate will be the nominee. Pascrell may just run elsewhere. Safe Democratic.
NJ-11 (cyan): OPEN - 64.8% Obama, 35.2% McCain [44.8% white plurality]
Pascrell and Rothman might end up in a tussle over this open seat, which includes the sizable Jewish community in Teaneck, as well as racially diverse villages that hold the white percentage under 50%. This open district strongly favors a Democrat, even more so than the new open seat in Middlesex County. Doubtless the Democratic Party would prefer to avoid a contested primary regardless; my guess is that party leaders would prod Rothman into NJ-08 and encourage Pascrell to run here. Safe Democratic.
NJ-12 (salmon): Rep. Donald Payne (D) - 82.2% Obama, 17.8% McCain [51.7% black majority]
This district is more compact than NJ-10, its Latino cousin, in urban North Jersey, including south Newark and south Jersey City and venturing as far south as substantially black Rahway. Payne, like Sires, has seen some recent discussion of potential retirement. The Democratic nominee here is almost certain to be the choice of the black community, though, whether or not it's Payne. Safe Democratic.
NJ-13 (navy): Rep. Michael Grimm (R) - 51.2% Obama, 48.8% McCain
In terms of geographic composition, this district is based on Staten Island, and the parts of mainland New Jersey included here are closely linked to the island. It's a bit hard for me to predict what would happen in this district. 48% of the two-party vote in Richmond County (coterminous with Staten Island) went to Obama, while he won 60.7% of the vote in the part of the district that is mainland New Jersey. Because the population of Staten Island outweighs the population in New Jersey, and because either there's some missing election data in Bayonne or voter turnout was extremely low there, the total numbers are a lot closer to the Staten Island split. Tossup.
All this yields a map that looks like a 9-3-2, provided Holt runs for reelection, with at least one of the tossups being quite difficult to peg. In color, that map looks like this:
And now we move on to the bereaved.
New York still loses two districts, ending up with 27. Really, removing Staten Island just tidies it up a little, in my opinion. I guess we can call it the Four Boroughs, though the urban realm of New York City is increasingly creeping north to Yonkers, Bronxville, and New Rochelle in Westchester County and east to Valley Stream, Manhasset, and Elmont in Nassau County. We'll get to that in a minute, though. I normally like to have my images free of district lines, but DRA crashes when I try to toggle district lines off while I have New York open.
NY-01 (blue): Rep. Timothy Bishop (D) - 52.2% Obama, 46.8% McCain
It's really not possible to make Bishop completely safe, but this PVI EVEN district is about the best he can get. Bishop held off Randy Altshuler by a few hundred votes in last year's Republican wave; in another wave, there's no guaranteeing he'd survive. But he seems to be canny and well suited to the district, and after all, Obama won here. Lean Democratic with Bishop, Tossup without Bishop.
NY-02 (green): Rep. Steve Israel (D) - 56.3% Obama, 42.9% McCain
Israel is pretty much guaranteed to get a better district than Bishop, but again, it's hard to make him completely safe. This district stays off Long Island's south shore altogether, taking in some heavily Democratic parts of the island and swingy areas like Smithtown. The DCCC chief should be able to be reelected here, though Republicans might mount a stern effort to unseat him if conditions look favorable, as taking out a member of the Democratic Party leadership would be a feather in the GOP's cap. Likely Democratic.
NY-03 (purple): Reps. Peter T. King (R) and Bob Turner (R) - 44.9% Obama, 54.3% McCain
I applied some LoBiondo logic here. King is apparently going to get reelected no matter what, even though he's a scummy, bigoted terrorist sympathizer. And I decided to eliminate Turner, sticking his home in Breezy Point into this district based on Long Island's south shore. Unless Turner can somehow harness the dying Tea Party to upset King in the primary, King should be the nominee here, and he should go on to win easily in this Republican vote sink that shoots tendrils up heavily Republican Garden City and Levittown. Safe Republican.
NY-04 (red): Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) - 60% Obama, 39.3% McCain
By giving some Republican parts of Long Island to NY-03 and making up population in diverse Queens, McCarthy winds up with a fine district indeed for a Democrat. It's quite possibly the ugliest district on the map, but there's not a lot of room to make a district too beautiful on this skinny island. I've also made sure to exclude Rep. Gary Ackerman's home in Roslyn Heights. Safe Democratic.
NY-05 (yellow): Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) - 79.1% Obama, 20.5% McCain [50.7% black majority]
Meeks actually ends up providing a home for many of Turner's old constituents, with a district centered around Jamaica Bay. In order to be black-majority, it expands into the urbanizing parts of southwestern Nassau County, but it's still distinctly a New York City district, with the majority of its population in Queens and another portion in Brooklyn. Meeks is another corrupt Democrat and I hope he'll be replaced, but the Democratic nominee here is quite likely to be black considering the demographics of the district. Safe Democratic.
NY-06 (sienna): Rep. Gary Ackerman (D) - 69% Obama, 30.4% McCain [39.4% white plurality]
This district mirrors NY-05, wrapping around Eastchester Bay just as Meeks's wraps around Jamaica Bay. It ventures some, from northwestern Nassau County through north Queens and the eastern shore of the Bronx into southeastern Westchester County, including all of New Rochelle. (Ackerman lives in kind of an inconvenient location to have a New York City district.) Ultimately, the district comes out to have a weak white plurality but no particularly large minority group that could mount a very potent primary challenge to the unimpressive Ackerman. Safe Democratic.
NY-07 (magenta): Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) - 70.2% Obama, 29% McCain [31% Asian plurality]
The head of the Queens Democratic Party is pretty much assured to get a district entirely within the borough that is tailored well to him, though I did stick him with the troublesome Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Kew Gardens to punish him for his failure in the NY-09 special election earlier this year. Crowley's successor very well may be Asian American, considering the demographics of the district. Whoever the Democrats nominate should win, even if Crowley doesn't seem to know how to run a campaign. Safe Democratic.
NY-08 (teal): OPEN - 70.9% Obama, 28.1% McCain [49.3% white plurality]
With Grimm's Staten Island-based district gone but the state still only losing two congressional districts, the way is clear for this long-demanded district in south Brooklyn to be created. I think technically Democratic Rep. Nydia M. Velazquez lives here in Red Hook, but under federal law, she can run elsewhere; she doesn't live in her district as currently drawn anyway. I haven't bothered to list her as the incumbent. Any Democrat should do quite well here, with the hipsters in Park Slope and the Latinos in Sunset Park outnumbering the white ethnics in New Utrecht and Little Odessa. Safe Democratic.
NY-09 (orange): Rep. Ed Towns (D) - 84.9% Obama, 14.7% McCain [50% black majority]
I'm sure this district, which is just barely black-majority by total population (and actually blacker in terms of VAP), would be even more Democratic if I weren't such a bastard. I wanted to maximize the Democratic bent of NY-08, so I punished the white Republicans in Borough Park, Ocean Parkway, and Gravesend by sticking them into a mostly black district. Or, as I prefer to see it, I rescued the outnumbered Democrats there. Safe Democratic.
NY-10 (cyan): Rep. Yvette Clarke (D) - 83.8% Obama, 15.8% McCain [50% black majority]
Oh, I'm good, aren't I? Clarke's district is also black-majority by total population, and it punishes even more Republicans in south Brooklyn. How delightful! Not much else to add, other than that I like Clarke and I think she'd be quite comfortable here. Safe Democratic.
NY-11 (chartreuse): Rep. Nydia M. Velazquez (D) - 79% Obama, 20.3% McCain [52.5% Latino majority]
I've even kept Velazquez's district comfortably Latino-majority, even if she doesn't live here, per se. It uses the earmuffs strategy, taking in Latino neighborhoods like Flushing Meadows in the north and Highland Park in the south. Velazquez almost definitely run here, and even if she doesn't, another Latino Democrat would certainly be happy to take advantage of this solidly blue district. Safe Democratic.
NY-12 (slate blue): Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney (D) - 79.2% Obama, 19.8% McCain
Maloney gets one of just two white-majority districts based in New York City. Her "silk stocking" district changes little, still crossing the East River between Queens and Manhattan. It's become quite the friendly environment for Democrats in the past couple decades, and it should reelect Maloney without difficulty. Safe Democratic.
NY-13 (dark salmon): Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) - 86.8% Obama, 12.3% McCain
I'm pretty sure Nadler's district here is the most Democratic white-majority district in the country, and probably by a good distance. It pulls out of Brooklyn altogether, staying entirely on the isle of Manhattan. At its northern end, it takes in the neighborhood of Manhattanville, but I believe it stays outside of Harlem proper. That's probably a political necessity in New York City. Safe Democratic.
NY-14 (olive): Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) - 93.3% Obama, 6.3% McCain [59.6% Latino majority]
Meanwhile, this is the most Democratic district in the country, period. Due to shifting demographic trends in Harlem, it's impossible to give Rangel, who is black, a black-majority or even just black-plurality district, meaning this is the second of the state's three Latino-majority districts. Rangel makes the corruption of Rothman and Meeks look like child's play, but he's popular in Harlem and he will probably get reelected. I did make his district an unattractive color, though. Safe Democratic.
NY-15 (cornflower blue): Rep. Jose Serrano (D) - 93.3% Obama, 6.4% McCain [61.9% Latino majority]
And here's the second-most Democratic district in the country, as well as possibly the smallest by area. Serrano gets to represent a very obvious community of interest here in the south Bronx. He's been in Congress for a while, and he's probably got this seat for life. Safe Democratic.
NY-16 (lime): Rep. Eliot Engel (D) - 63.1% Obama, 36.2% McCain [49.5% white plurality]
This district is literally borderline between being based in New York City and the Hudson Valley heading into upstate. Maybe it's best to consider it a New York City district on the basis of it being minority-majority. Oh, and Engel lives in the Bronx. I think his north Bronx home is within the district, but it's New York, so who cares? I don't think any of the precincts here are rural; the furthest north it goes is Congers. Safe Democratic.
NY-17 (blue-violet): Reps. Nita M. Lowey (D) and Nan Hayworth (R) - 57.8% Obama, 41.3% McCain
I honestly did try to leave Mount Kisco Township, where Hayworth lives, out of this district, but there was just no way to do it that I can see. The entire district stays east of the Hudson River and zooms up from Larchmont and Mamaroneck to southern Columbia County. If Lowey (or a younger Democrat) and Hayworth faced off, Hayworth wouldn't be likely to win. In fact, Hayworth might just run elsewhere. Likely Democratic.
NY-18 (dark gray): Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) - 55.3% Obama, 43.3% McCain
The sickly Hinchey might very well retire rather than seek reelection. I'm assuming he runs for reelection, because he's said he plans to. The unintentional destruction of Hayworth's district means his Highway 17 district gets a lot more vulnerable, even though it still includes the Democratic bastions of Ithaca and Binghamton. If Hinchey doesn't run for reelection, Democrats might have to put some work into holding it. Hayworth could move here and make a run at it, against Hinchey or otherwise. Likely Democratic with Hinchey, Lean Democratic without Hinchey.
NY-19 (spring green): OPEN - 54.2% Obama, 44.3% McCain
I think Hayworth is more likely to seek election here. There's no incumbent, no big sources of Democratic votes outside Poughkeepsie, and a closer presidential margin than NY-18. A Democrat would probably be favored in an even year, but not by too much. Tossup/Tilt Democratic with Hayworth, Lean Democratic without Hayworth.
NY-20 (maroon): Rep. Chris Gibson (R) - 48.1% Obama, 50.1% McCain
Simulating a possible compromise between Assembly Democrats and Senate Republicans, I've split up the Adirondacks in order to eliminate a Democratic incumbent. Gibson is sort of a beneficiary of that, I guess? Some of that territory currently belonging to Democratic Rep. Bill Owens is rather blue, and Gibson's reelection isn't assured here. In fact, Owens might run here, which would be messy. Tossup with Owens, Lean Republican without Owens.
NY-21 (goldenrod): Reps. Paul Tonko (D) and Bill Owens (D) - 58.7% Obama, 39.5% McCain
I ran this district along Interstate 87 right up to the Canadian border, taking in Owens's home in Plattsburgh along the way. Tonko's base in the Capital Region is largely intact, and the Blue Dog Owens might not even bother to seek reelection here. He wouldn't have much of a shot. This is one of just three upstate districts that is altogether out of range for Republicans. Safe Democratic.
NY-22 (dodger blue): Rep. Richard Hanna (R) - 49.5% Obama, 48.8% McCain
Hanna does get his own district, but as with Gibson's, it's not entirely safe for him. That being said, he's in decent position with this Lake Ontario district. He is in moderate danger of losing a primary, as his home in Barneveld is just inside the district, just east of Rome, and much of the district is new territory. Lean Republican.
NY-23 (indigo): Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) - 55% Obama, 43.1% McCain
All of Onondaga County is in this district, which is anchored by Syracuse. It looks like a pretty tough lift for Buerkle, but as she's the incumbent and the district also includes some significant red areas, I'm not comfortable classifying it as a blue district straight off the bat. Lean Democratic with Buerkle, Likely Democratic without Buerkle.
NY-24 (light green): Rep. Tom Reed (R) - 45.2% Obama, 53.3% McCain
Reed's district is basically the Southern Tier plus the GLW region (Genesee, Livingstone, and Wyoming counties; Orleans County is typically included to make it GLOW, but Orleans County is elsewhere). This is a pretty Republican area, ancestrally and currently, making this the second and final solidly Republican district in the state. Safe Republican.
NY-25 (tan): Rep. Brian Higgins (D) - 58.1% Obama, 40.4% McCain
Higgins gets the entirety of Buffalo, a considerable portion of Erie County otherwise, and all of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. The district comes out to be a lock for the Democrat, even as Buffalo's heyday recedes further into the past. Safe Democratic.
NY-26 (navy): Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) - 51.6% Obama, 46.7% McCain
It's possible to make Hochul a bit safer by splitting Orleans County or unpacking Buffalo, but I wanted to avoid unnecessary county and city splits. The hardworking Hochul gave Democrats their first big post-2011 win this year, and I think she could keep getting reelected in this swing district, although she would probably never be able to take it for granted. As an added bonus, this district includes her hometown of Hamburg, even though she's promised to move if Hamburg isn't in the district after redistricting. Lean Democratic with Hochul, Tossup/Tilt Republican without Hochul.
NY-27 (orchid): Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) - 59% Obama, 39.6% McCain
Slaughter, who is one of my favorite members of Congress, gets the district she wants here. It loses the earmuffs configuration, staying entirely within Monroe County. Rochester dominates the district, and as a result, it's quite blue. Safe Democratic.
So, I've done a bit of math, and this map looks to be a 19-2-6. Here's how it looks:
The 436th seat under this configuration is Minnesota's eighth. But I already addressed how I envision a seven-district Minnesota map here, so enjoy.
All in all, this seems like a pretty good deal! Now, if we can only talk Staten Island into asking New Jersey to annex it…
Thoughts, either on the map or on the concept?