rankings cross listed at sk7326's personal site
First off - HOORAY!!! No more byes, 16 games the rest of the way ...
When this week's rankings - ahead of one of the great Thanksgiving lineups in recent memory - are unfurled, you will note that SIXTEEN teams are within two games of each other from the #3 to the #18 position. The league is showing a ton of parity this year - yeah I know, you read that statement every year, but it is largely not true - and so how this thing will shake out is now harder to envision than ever. In any case - here is this week's stab. As always, the rankings are a combination of schedule adjusted winning pct, adjusted scoring margin, head to head record, record vs good teams and record vs common opponents.
1 (1) Green Bay Communists (10-0) 31 pairwins
2 (2) San Francisco 49ers (9-1) 30
3 (3) Baltimore Edgar Allan Poems (7-3) 29
4 (4) New Orleans Saints (7-3) 28
5 (5) Greater Boston and Providence Patriots (7-3) 27
6 (8) Detroit Lions (7-3) 25
7 (7) Chicago Bears (7-3) 24
8 (6) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) 23
9 (9) Houston Texans (7-3) 22
10 (13) Dallas Cowboys (6-4) 21
11 (11) Cincinnati Other Paul Browns (6-4) 20
12 (14) Atlanta Falcons (6-4) 20
13 (16) Los Angeles Raiders of Oakland (6-4) 17
14 (18) Denver Incompletion Jesus (5-5) 17
15 (12) Northern New Jersey Jets (5-5) 15
16 (10) Northern New Jersey Giants (6-4) 14
17 (15) Buffalo Bills (5-5) 14
18 (17) Tennessee Non-Oilers (5-5) 14
19 (22) Seattle Seahawks (4-6) 12
20 (24) Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) 12
21 (19) Land Mass Surrounding Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) 11
22 (20) Los Angeles Chargers of San Diego (4-6) 10
23 (21) Kansas City Texans (4-6) 7
24 (23) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) 7
25 (27) Miami Dolphins (3-7) 6
26 (25) Washington Racial Slurs (3-7) 6
27 (30) Cleveland Paul Browns (4-6) 3
28 (28) Arizona Cactus Wrens (3-7) 3
29 (26) Minnesota Vikings (2-8) 3
30 (27) Saint Louis Rams (2-8) 2
31 (31) Carolina Panthers (2-8) 1
32 (32) Peyton Manning's Co-Workers (0-10) 0
8 Toughest Schedules (Opp W/L, Opp SoS x OppOpp SoS)
Tampa Bay Bucs (56-34, .562)
Chicago Bears (50-40, .539)
Detroit Lions (49-41, .536)
Denver Broncos (51-39, .528)
New York Jets (48-42, .522)
Minnesota Vikings (49-41, .522)
Seattle Seahawks (50-40, .521)
Atlanta Falcons (46-44, .519)
8 Easiest Schedules To Date
Jacksonville Jaguars (43-47, .483)
Miami Dolphins (43-47, .482)
Tennessee Titans (42-48, .482)
New York Giants (40-50, .472)
Arizona Cardinals (39-51, .469)
Kansas City Chiefs (37-53, .464)
Cleveland Browns (39-51, .464)
Washington Redskins (39-51, .462)
Really for this week's update a few noteworthy items. As noted earlier a full SIXTEEN teams are jockeying for positions and are all pretty close together recordwise. So when Matt Schaub went down a week ago and Jay Cutler went down this week, given how hot and heavy the competition is - can the Texans and Bears hang on respectively?
The Texans have a two game lead in their division with 6 games to go: at Jacksonville, Atlanta, at Cincy, Carolina, at Indy, Tennessee ... this is not the stiffest schedule in the world, with no top 8 teams among them. We have seen Indy roll over and quit all season long, so one surmises the golf clubs will be nearby when Week 16 rolls around. Former TMZ hero Matt Leinart is not optimal, but at least he is working against a schedule he can beat. If the Texans lose out this will be a tremendous disappointment.
The Bears have played a big half game with Caleb Hayne. Nobody would confuse him with Joe Montana, but he has experience in the system and teammates trust. Their final six games ... at Oakland, KC, at Denver, Seattle, at Green Bay, at Minnesota. This is a stiffer test. Aside from Green Bay there are no great teams, and Kansas City might not even register as good at this point, but there is at least high effort level here. Even Minnesota on the road will be at least an estimable opponent. With stiff competition from Atlanta and the Cowboys/Giants, the Bears are teetering a bit here. They have been outstanding lately to rise up to #7 against a very strong schedule, but the schedule does not drop THAT much - and not having Cutler hurts. Not as much as if they did not have Forte, but still.
So what of turkey day?
Green Bay at Detroit:
Pretty clearly, this is the best shot yet at taking down the Packers. Detroit, their first meaningful Thanksgiving game in years, coming off of a 49 point explosion (a Calvin Johnson free one). Green Bay is Green Bay of course.
Miami at Dallas:
Two weeks ago this looked like a total dog. However, Miami's scoring margin is that of a 17th place team, not a 3-7 one. They have also been beating the tar out of opponents lately. Cowboys need to be on alert, and they have a division that they are in really good shape for.
San Francisco at Baltimore:
The #2 and #3 going at it. Baltimore has had three mystifying losses. They play to their competition for sure. But here is a stiff opponents.
Anyway, what a week of football. For more serious threads, God knows we have choices.