I decided to sketch out what I thought would constitute a Republican map, but under the FDF amendments. The map does attempt to keep counties whole, not cross county lines unnecessarily, and tries keep all Republicans in R+4/R+5 districts where possible.
Here is the overview, and we wil go to the Miami area last, where there is contention over Alcee Hastings' district.
1) Jeff Miller - Blue - 67% McCain. Safe R.
2) Steve Southerland - Green - 53 % McCain - Likely R.
Here is Jacksonville, where the fact that it is a city-county makes it easier to map for Republicans.
3) Corrine Brown - Yellow - 52 % Obama - 30.8 % B. Lean R with Brown, Tossup with another Dem. Cracks Jacksonville. Kept all of the AA population together here.
4) Ander Crenshaw - Purple - 59 % McCain. Safe R. Goes from Jacksonville to Gainesville.
Central Florida Overhead
6) Cliff Stearns - Teal - 56.5 % McCain - Safe R. Keeps Oceola based district.
5) Rich Nugent - Red- McCain 54.4% - Safe R.
7) John Mica - Silver - 58.7% McCain - Safe R. Mica would have to move from Orlando suburbs to here, most of his district is here anyway and him, Webster and Adams live too close to each other to map cleanly.
24) Sandy Adams- Purple - McCain 50.4% - Lean R. About same as the current district, but a lot cleaner. Compacts out of Orlando.
I originally had this alot messier, and at 67 % Obama. I ended up cleaning it up, keeping it the same MM %age but it makes Webster more vulnerable by 5 points. Nothing you can do unless you are going to make a messy vote sink - which maybe you could argue is in VRA interest to maximize %, dunno.
26) NEW DISTRICT - Val Demings? Alan Grayson?- Silver - 64.2% Obama - 39.6 % White, 25.3 % B, 30.5 % H. You can fit a MM district here within one county, so I kept it within it. Safe D.
8) Daniel Webster - Blue - 55.4% Obama - Lean D. Supposedly Demings is running against Webster no matter what, but we'll see.
12) Dennis Ross - Green - 52.7 % McCain - Likely R
15) Bill Posey- Orange- 55.7% McCain. Safe R.
10) Bill Young - Pink - 56.2% Obama - Tossup, Lean D Open.
9) Gus Bilalkris - Turquoise - 53.7% McCain - Likely R.
11) Kathy Castor - Purple - 61.8%. Safe D.
13) Vern Buchanon - Salmon - 53% McCain - Likely R.
14) Open (Connie Mack) - Red - McCain 53.6% - Likely R.
27) NEW DISTRICT (Allen West?) - Weird Blueish Greenish Color - McCain 58.1 % - Safe R.
16) Tom Rooney - Lime Green - McCain 52% . Loses weird double coastal aspect of district, Rooney lives in the Eastern edge of district anyway. Likely R.
Okay now to Miami:
Here is what I first tried to do when I tried to keep Hastings' district as majority black, and it was black majority but not by VAP. Either way I determined it was not VRA or FDF valid so I went another way. Also, it made it harder to give West a district that was both FDF compliant and somewhere near winnable. The problem would be that the Hastings district going through the middle of the area like that makes it hard to connect the Republican pockets near Fort Lauderdale/Boca Raton in the SE and the areas in the N/NW of Palm Beach County.
(brown was West, white Deutch and Pale Green Hastings)
So here is the overview for what I figured Republicans in FL could do:
25) David Rivera - Light Brown - Obama 50.7 % - H 69 % - Tossup with Rivera, Lean R without him. Southern based Cuban district.
18) IRL - Dark Brown - Obama 52 % - H 69 % - Likely R with IRL, Tossup if open. Downtown Cuban district.
21) Mario DB - Yellow - McCain 52 % - H 80 % - Likely R. Tried to equalize the hispanic percentage more, but would have altered the areas of the districts a lot. They look a little contorted though as well, but that is to make sure they all aren't packed, which would stop you from making a third district.
17) Frederica Wilson - Slate Blue - Obama 85.8 % - B 53 % H 29.1 % . Safe D.
20) DWS - Red - Obama 62 % . Safe D.
23) Hastings - Aqua - B 41.6 % W 35%. Obama 75.8 %. Safe D. Majority Minority.
22) West - Brown - Obama 59 %. Safe D. 49.5% W. Majority Minority.
19) Deutch - Pink - Obama 61%. Safe D.
West could run in the Brown district, or go across and run in the open SW Florida district. In fact, that is what State Rep. Mack IV did when he ran for congress, moving from the area he rep'd in Miami area to run for an open house seat in the SW. So there is precedence for this.
Overall, Rs and Ds would split the two new seats. Cuban districts stay about the same. Hastings seat splits into two influence seats. West's seat is torn up. Corrine Brown and Daniel Webster become extremely vulnerable. Bill Young's seat goes a few pts more D. But I don't think the D's really gain that much, other than clean lines. I suppose there are a lot of seats that could fall in a wave though. I would say because of FDF-induced map we end up with +1, maybe +2 (depending on Webster and Brown).