Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning.
Sign up here.
9:41 AM PT: IL-16: Not that I thought he was likely to retire quietly, but just in case he was on anyone's watch list, veteran GOP Rep. Don Manzullo just kicked off his re-election campaign in the re-drawn 16th CD. It looks like this will set up a Republican primary battle with fellow Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who said back in September that he'd run "in the district that represents Grundy County." (That would be the 16th.) But Kinzinger's been hard to pin down: Right after the new map came out, he said he'd run in the 16th, then backed off, then started using this weird Grundy County-specific language, so it's a bit hard to say exactly what his intentions are. The Illinois filing deadline is very soon, though—Dec. 5—so we'll find out shortly.
9:44 AM PT: TX Redistricting: Stop the presses! The new interim Texas congressional map has been released!
9:56 AM PT: You can find the new Texas plan using this direct link. I'm also including a copy of the map below, but with Texas being such an enormous state, the only way to see all the detail is to use the Legislative Council's zoomable tool.
10:09 AM PT: Jeff has some early thoughts:
The major changes in this map are in the Rio Grande Valley, the Metroplex, and around San Antonio/Austin. In the valley, the 27th is restored to a compact Corpus Christi-McAllen based district, which is not great news for duck-pajama aficionados turned Congressmen (aka GOP freshman Blake Farenthold). On the flipside, the sprawling 23rd now takes in less of south-side San Antonio and less Democratic areas of El Paso County—this is probably good news! (for Republican Quico Canseco). The heavily Hispanic areas excised from the 23rd are placed in the new 35th, which should be a solid Dem-leaning Hispanic majority seat. A wonderful corollary of this development is that Lloyd Doggett gets his 25th district back.
The major change in the Metroplex is the creation of a Fort Worth/Arlington based 33rd, which should be Dem-leaning as well. The racial demographics are unclear at first glance, but should at least be somewhat Hispanic-influenced. All in all, this is a fairly decent plan, giving us a solid shot at the new 33rd and 35th, as well as allowing us to retake the 27th and keep the 25th.
10:26 AM PT: NY-13: Another name is being thrown about as a possible Democratic challenger to freshman GOPer Mike Grimm: telecom exec Stephen Yodice. For all we know, he could be rich ("president and chief executive of Syoptics Networks"), but as Colin Campbell notes, not a lot out there on this guy in terms of having a public profile. (No, LinkedIn doesn't count.)
10:58 AM PT: TX Redistricting: Thanks to Darth Jeff's handy links, I've compiled election results for all Texas statewide races in 2008 and 2010 at the first link. I'm also including the Obama numbers in table form below
CD |
Obama |
McCain |
|
CD |
Obama |
McCain |
|
CD |
Obama |
McCain |
1 |
31 |
69 |
|
13 |
22 |
77 |
|
25 |
68 |
30 |
2 |
34 |
65 |
|
14 |
42 |
57 |
|
26 |
35 |
64 |
3 |
37 |
61 |
|
15 |
62 |
37 |
|
27 |
58 |
41 |
4 |
29 |
70 |
|
16 |
67 |
32 |
|
28 |
59 |
41 |
5 |
37 |
63 |
|
17 |
33 |
66 |
|
29 |
62 |
37 |
6 |
45 |
54 |
|
18 |
77 |
22 |
|
30 |
82 |
18 |
7 |
43 |
57 |
|
19 |
28 |
71 |
|
31 |
40 |
59 |
8 |
26 |
74 |
|
20 |
59 |
40 |
|
32 |
43 |
56 |
9 |
77 |
22 |
|
21 |
33 |
66 |
|
33 |
63 |
37 |
10 |
47 |
52 |
|
22 |
41 |
59 |
|
34 |
33 |
66 |
11 |
23 |
76 |
|
23 |
51 |
48 |
|
35 |
54 |
44 |
12 |
34 |
65 |
|
24 |
38 |
61 |
|
36 |
31 |
68 |
11:30 AM PT: OH-01/02: Major bummer: Democratic state Rep. Connie Pillich, who had been gearing up for a congressional run, says she will instead seek re-election to the legislature. Pillich never made clear whether she planned to challenge Steve Chabot in the 1st or Jean Schmidt in the 2nd, but I always figured the former made much more sense, since Pillich lives in the 1st and it's also a friendlier district. But it's not to be.
11:34 AM PT: OR-Pres: SurveyUSA has some new numbers for seldom-polled Oregon, where they find Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 48-40 and Gingrich trailing the president 51-37.
11:41 AM PT: Some early fallout from the new Texas map:
• Democratic state Rep. Marc Veasy, one of the plaintiffs in the redistricting suit, says he'll run in the new 33rd. The seat is described as an "African-American opportunity district"; Veasey is black.
• Meanwhile, Josh Kraushaar reports he's hearing that GOP freshman Blake Farenthold will seek re-election in the redrawn 34th rather than the revised 27th (his current district). However, the 34th is very GOP-friendly and will almost certainly attract other contenders.
• And finally, the brewing battle between Rep. Lloyd Doggett and state Rep. Joaquin Castro in the TX-35 Democratic primary looks like it will soon be a thing of the past. Under the new map, Doggett has every reason to return to the 25th CD (his current district), while the new 35th (which is 56% Hispanic) looks like a good fit for Castro.
11:49 AM PT: MS Redistricting: Speaking of court-drawn maps, Mississippi is about to get one, too—at least, according to a three-judge panel which says it intends to step in shortly. I'm sort of surprised at this development, seeing as Republicans just won the state House earlier this month, giving them control of the complete redistricting trifecta, so you'd think coming up with a new plan would be smooth sailing. But time is running short, since the candidate filing deadline is Jan. 13. That doesn't leave the court very much time, but it's more than the legislature has, since they aren't back in session until Jan. 3.
11:57 AM PT: KS Redistricting: In case you were dying to see what Kansas's new maps looked like, you'll have to wait a little longer. Or rather, a lot longer: A Republican legislator says he doesn't expect a vote until May 10, 2012.
12:03 PM PT: RI Redistricting: But have no fear! We'll be getting at least one more new map soon. (What, Texas wasn't enough for you?) The redistricting panel in mighty Rhode Island will release its congressional proposal on Monday. (Legislative plans came out earlier this week.) But with just two districts, a very small deviation, and a solidly blue populace, this one won't be generating much buzz.
12:10 PM PT: CT Redistricting: And while we're on this string of redistricting schedule items, Connecticut's panel is supposed to finish up its work on Nov. 30. However, Gov. Dan Malloy is worried that they might not (the original deadline was in September), saying it would be a "gigantic failure" if they can't get things done by the end of the month. What's not clear to me, though, is precisely why Malloy has started grumbling about this.
12:17 PM PT: TX Redistricting: One more spreadsheet: A comparison of the Obama-McCain numbers for the new, court-drawn interim map, the map the legislature passed earlier this year, and the current (32-district) map.
12:29 PM PT:
12:29 PM PT: OH HB194: It looks like the group trying to put Ohio's restrictive new election law on the ballot for possible repeal will indeed succeed. Fair Elections Ohio originally came about 10,000 signature short, but they just filed an additional 166,000, all but guaranteeing that the referendum will go forward. Joe Vardon of the Columbus Dispatch summarizes some of the objectionable provisions of the legislation, known as HB194:
A reduction in early voting from 35 days before an election to 21 days by mail and 17 in person. The bill also would prohibit in-person voting on Saturday afternoons, Sundays and the three days before the election.
A prohibition on counties such as Franklin from sending unsolicited absentee-ballot applications to all voters.
Requirements regarding whether a poll worker has to tell a voter that he or she is in the wrong precinct.
New standards for when a vote should be tossed out, such as when a person puts the wrong birth date on an absentee-ballot envelope.
12:33 PM PT: Ads: Reid Wilson has an interesting look at the levels of political ad-buying saturation in several key media markets, particularly those in swing states which also feature competitive Senate contests. He also has some cool maps from Nielsen.
12:41 PM PT: WI Recall: Republicans have filed suit asking the state Supreme Court to rule that any recalls next year be held under the new maps passed by the GOP-held legislature this summer. Meanwhile, Democrats are asking a three-judge federal panel to rule the exact opposite—i.e., that recalls should be conducted using the old maps. A plain reading of the legislation instituting the new maps says that Democrats are right, and Republicans, clearly worried, even tried to pass a quick fix. But they were derailed by one of their own members, state Sen. Dale Schultz, who said: "I believe the people who voted for me are the ones who should be properly sitting in judgment if a recall comes."
12:47 PM PT: TX Redistricting: Charles Kuffner is out with his analysis of the new map, and he says (as I think everyone agrees) it looks like a 23R-13D split, up from the current 23-9. He also takes things a step further and slots each district into the usual Safe/Likely/Lean categories (but doesn't identify any true Tossups).
12:52 PM PT: TX-33: Also via Kuff is this report from PoliTex on the instantly-hot race for the new 33rd. In addition to state Rep. Marc Veasey (mentioned above), Fort Worth Councilwoman Kathleen Hicks says she's going to run, and one of Hicks' fellow councilmembers, Sal Espino, says he's thinking about it. A third councilman, Joel Burns, announced he wouldn't run and endorsed Veasey. PoliTex suggests that other names may yet surface. Woohoo! Redistmas!
1:04 PM PT: WI-Gov: More loser-talk from Scott Walker in his second recall-themed ad. It once again features a woman speaking somewhat awkwardly in front of a jet-blue background (but not Walker himself this time), saying "It’s not about being popular, you know, it’s not about getting the votes." She also thinks the recall "feels a little like sour groups." (Also, she says she's "only speaking from the eye"—is that a phrase?) Also check out the weird shrugging gesture at the very end:
1:12 PM PT: NC-07: I've gotta believe that Ilario Pantano's new 60-second ad hammering Republican primary opponent David Rouzer for allegedly supporting "amnesty" for illegal immigrants is little more than a video press release. I say that because Pantano, who was the 2010 nominee for this seat, only raised $65K in the third quarter, so where's he gonna get the money to run a real ad campaign, especially this early? Jessica Taylor (previously of The Hotline, now at the Rothenberg Political Report) mentions one related detail that we missed last month: Pantano put out an internal poll (PDF) showing him with a 43-20 lead over Rouzer. (Oddly, Rouzer's name is misspelled, and Pantano also sat on the survey for more than a month before releasing it, meaning its almost three months old now.)
1:39 PM PT: TX Redistricting: One more Texas link: Steve Singiser just posted our full redistricting analysis, including some thoughts about districts which may not be super-competitive now but could be in the future. And with that, I think I'm going to sign off. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!