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Jan Brewer
Gov. Jan Brewer (R)
(Gage Skidmore/CC BY-SA 3.0)
Striking while the iron is hot, our friends at Public Policy Polling have a raft of new poll numbers related to Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, the whole redistricting mess she's created, and a hypothetical recall. First up, the good news (for us—bad news for her):
Brewer's approval rating has sunk to 42% with 49% of voters disapproving of her. The last time PPP found her with numbers that bad was in April of 2010, shortly before the signing of Senate Bill 1070, when she was at 35/46. There are two things helping to drive Brewer's poor ratings: Democrats (77%) are more unified in their disapproval of her than Republicans (69%) are in their approval and independents split against her by a 34/51 margin as well.

What could be causing this drop? Here's one possibility:

Only 31% of voters support Brewer removing Colleen Mathis as chair of the Redistricting Commission, to 43% who oppose her move. Republicans agree with what Brewer did by a 54/16 margin but Democrats are even more unified in their displeasure with her action, 13/72. Independents think Brewer did the wrong thing by a 19/41 margin as well.

Unfortunately, this doesn't mean voters support the Redistricting Commission's work, though:

The unhappiness with Brewer's actions shouldn't be taken as an endorsement by the Arizona electorate of the Congressional maps that the Commission proposed. Only 25% of voters express support for the proposed lines with 34% opposed to them and an unsurprising 42% holding no opinion on this decidedly insider baseball issue. Voters don't necessarily disagree with Brewer that the House map was flawed, they just disagree with the action she took to deal with the problem.

But here's the real bad news:

Despite Brewer's declining poll numbers there's little support for a recall of her. Only 32% of voters would support such a move to 58% who are opposed. There are a lot of voters [who] don't like Brewer, but don't think she should be removed from office either. This is particularly clear with independents who oppose a recall 25/59, even as they simultaneously give Brewer poor marks for her job performance.

Oof. I wasn't expecting such rough numbers on a potential recall. Even if would-be organizers could obtain sufficient signatures, they'd still need to find a candidate to take on Brewer in a recall. And with sentiment so strongly against a possible recall, recruitment would be difficult—let alone running an actual race. But things can certainly change, and if Brewer goes ahead with her nascent plans to re-impeach Mathis, they can definitely get worse for her.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I can understand (10+ / 0-)

    the lack of enthusiasm for a recall. As she's term-limited, many probably figure it's okay for her to eke out her last half-term, instead of causing a ruckus.

    Now, if only Dems there could remain enthused and motivated to turn out in November, she might face a much less friendly legislature.

  •  Wow, she looks really bad when you (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lonely Liberal in PA, Monitor78

    blow that picture up.   She doesn't look that bad in the article that I read.  Maybe its a reverse Dorian Grey effect?

    Photobucket

    If the foundations be destroyed, what can the righteous do? - Psalms 11:3

    by SpamNunn on Wed Nov 23, 2011 at 06:53:40 PM PST

  •  Just posted a diary on the Supreme Court's (6+ / 0-)

    rejection of her recent demand that they explain their reinstatement of Mathis. New just broke: Here.

    stay together / learn the flowers / go light - Gary Snyder

    by Mother Mags on Wed Nov 23, 2011 at 07:03:19 PM PST

  •  Grumble... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    Arizona residents... grumble.

    Say David, did you or anyone else do a breakdown of the vote on Ohio's Issue 2 by county/congressional district?

  •  How Could Voters Have any Sense of Scale (0+ / 0-)

    of the threat of Republicans, when the two parties have fought within the same rightwing frames over the entire lifetime of half the electorate, and the public square is rightwing?

    So the voters don't like her. There's no good way for ordinary reasonable people to suspect how bad or extreme the things they disapprove really are.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Wed Nov 23, 2011 at 07:17:57 PM PST

  •  I'm not surprised (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lineatus

    I never thought a recall effort against her would gain any traction.  Arizona is sort of an enclave unto itself that is still ruled by the older segment of the electorate, and they are very conservative, very caucasian and sort of intansigent in their posture vis a vis out of state critics.  They may not approve of her every move, but I suspect an effort to recall her, especially if there is the slightest whiff of out of state support for it, will result in a reflexive defensive posture and rallying.

    "In a nation ruled by swine, all pigs are upwardly mobile." Hunter S. Thompson

    by Keith930 on Wed Nov 23, 2011 at 07:18:44 PM PST

  •  No. Forget the polls. (8+ / 0-)

    They said Russell Pearce could not be recalled and he's gone.  Arizonans, sign up here to commit to 100 signatures on recall petitions.  Go to Hispanic areas. Go to Native American areas. Get your friends to do it . Sí se puede.
    http://citizensforabetteraz.org/...

    Jan was smacked down today by the AZ Supreme Court.

    See here;
    http://stevemuratore.blogspot.com/

    Remember, you can't have crazy without az.

    by Desert Rose on Wed Nov 23, 2011 at 07:23:15 PM PST

  •  Recall reluctance doesn't seem all that surprising (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lineatus, Matt Z

    given the numbers that the poll shows.  A 43% approval rating wouldn't strike me as being anywhere close to recall territory, and a fight over redistricting isn't going to fire up the juices of the general electorate the way the Enron/skyrocketing energy bills/rolling blackouts fiasco, increased license fees, and other budget issues did for California voters when they decided to recall Grey Davis...

    Davis was hitting favorable numbers in the low twenty's just before his recall.  If Brewer starts getting into that territory, then it might be time to start talking about recall...

    "In a nation ruled by swine, all pigs are upward mobile..." - Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

    by Jack K on Wed Nov 23, 2011 at 07:28:55 PM PST

  •  People tell pollsters (3+ / 0-)

    "No" right up to the moment they tell them "yes".

    We have been so utterly conditioned to expect to get screwed over and to wait for a better safer opportunity, I hope the bad polling doesn't dampen the movement to recall her.

    Bill Clinton announced his run when George H. W. Bush looked invincible. I remember him being talked about as a sacrificial lamb candidate who gave a long boring speech in 1988 and was perfect for the roll.

    Beau Biden would currently be a US Senator from Deleware right now if he'd run when it looked impossible.

    In Nevada, every poll showed us that Sharron Angle was destined to be our U.S. Senator right now. If Harry Reid had chosen to believe the polls, he'd have retired. He had no shot. No chance. Until he won. NY-26 was unwinnable for a Blue Dog Democrat, let alone a Democrat who didn't run screaming from one blatantly making a liberal argument in terms of govern social policy.

    People tell pollsters who ask them a carefully constructed question one minute that the deficit is everything one minute, and the next tell them that Social Security and Medicare are sacrosanct when asked a more black and white non-leading question.

    Now, if only Dems there could remain enthused and motivated to turn out in November, she might face a much less friendly legislature.

    It's not a state secret. Or magic. Or an esoteric form of  stoicism.

    You have to do something motivating to motivate people. That's not on the voters, it's on the pols and the party. If people don't believe in you, there is a reason.

    I don't understand why the onus is on the Democratic voter instead of the dysfunctional Party to get it's shit together. Blaming myself for mistakes and fuck-ups I haven't made is a form of enabling.

    It's as infuriating as listening to a frustrated restaurant owner who serves a menu of fetid crap to bland pastey mediocre cuisine, and who tells you it's as good as you can get and you'll like it otherwise you can eat the other guy's poison or starve, and then is pissed that the restaurant is struggling all the times and he or she doesn't have Michelin stars or a glowing Zagat review.

    One way for Democrats to remain enthusiastic is if the Democratic Party gives them a reason to be enthusiastic. I belong to the only political party that blames it's voters when it fails to do it's job, and then cannot for the life of itself figure out why history keeps repeating itself. When you lose elections, it's because the politician and the party didn't get the job done, not the other way around.

    All the evidence in the world is staring the Democratic Party in the face that they would a far more dominant force in American politics if they stopped listening to people who don't care if a Democrat ever wins another election again, stop staring at their navels and talking themselves out of things, and started taking a partisan argument to the people against Movement Conservatism and in favor of themselves.

    Jan Brewer might look unbeatable, right up until the moment she loses her office.

    And if you don't win, the recall is an end-around the local and national Village ignoring just how wretched she is because things are only serious when the Very Serious People in DC say they are.

    I am from the Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party

    by LeftHandedMan on Wed Nov 23, 2011 at 07:42:38 PM PST

  •  Banging my head against the table.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z
  •  Not surprising... (0+ / 0-)

    I  think a recall woud be a waste of resources that would be used elsewhere.

    Just another faggity fag socialist fuckstick homosinner!

    by Ian S on Wed Nov 23, 2011 at 07:54:44 PM PST

  •  she deserves to be impeached (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Karl Rover

    for this alone.

    our one demand? return what was stolen.

    by stolen water on Wed Nov 23, 2011 at 07:54:54 PM PST

  •  chicken and egg-- I think it's ok to embark on the (0+ / 0-)

    occasional political initiative before the polls tell you its got better than even chances.  See the Civil Rights movement, or for that matter the Conservative movement.

    More specifically, there's polling to suggest that voters generally are resistant to the idea of recalls, at first, even if they actually wish the person gone.   So get some momentum going for the idea (also, obviously, the only way to recruit a viable opposing candidate).   Let's see if the bloodyminded old line conservatives of AZ are the numerical majority.  I think they are not.

  •  she will destroy herself (0+ / 0-)

    she is of that kind

  •  Hard to understand but people in AZ (0+ / 0-)

    like her. This last summer I made friends with a lady from there who spent the summer in my town in WA state. When I talked about how wacky she looks on tv she said they loved her for working on the immigration issue.

    This lady voted for Obama and is not religious so I thought she would see what we all see about her gov. not so. She says most people really like her and like what she is doing.

  •  Brewer's Not the Only Whiny GOPer (0+ / 0-)

    Brewer's not the only whiny Ariz. GOPer. GOP 2nd C.D. Rep. Trent Franks is bellyaching about the present IRC plan, even though his new 8th C.D. is supposed to be even more GOP friendly than his present 2nd R+13 Cook PVI. Nothing will ever satisfy him or Gov. Brewer short of a 100% GOP congressional delegation. Democrats must bring in strong congressional challengers in Ariz. For more on loony, demagogue Franks, read  this

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