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So, as most DKEnalysts are aware, there are at least two states where there are more Congresscritters than there are State Senators. Those two are California and Texas. At 31 seats, Texas state senators represent about 110,000 more people per district than the state's (soon-to-be) 36 congressmen. And due to a Republican trifecta and the natural geographic clustering of Democratic constituencies (except for Hispanics, which are a presence throughout the state.), Texas state Democrats have a ceiling of about 12 seats, just barely above the threshold to filibuster.

So I thought; what if the Senate were expanded to 50 seats? It would be more representative, and therefore more accountable, than the federal representation, like it logically should, and could perhaps unpack all of the super-Democratic seats in the state. And hey, as long as we're shooting the moon, why not make it a radical Democratic gerrymander? And not just a gerrymander, but one that sacrifices short-term gains for potential/likely long-term ones. So I drew a map, which I think would give Democrats a majority in the body by the end of the decade, but not right now.


Before any (non-DKE) people point it out, YES, this is complete fantasy and will never in my wildest dreams come to pass. Some of us are bored.

Also, I am not very familiar with Texas communities of interest. If I egregiously split groups up I should not have, please offer constructive criticism. I apologize in advance to trowaman and wwmiv in particular if I made any major errors. Also, I may be completely wrong in a couple seat ratings.

And lastly, I'm aware some of these districts might violate the VRA. Again, this map is pure fantasy, so it wasn't exactly one of my key priorities. Refer to the above point in dealing with any illegalities I may have committed.

Let's get into it now!

To save some of my sanity, I'm only going to get into the Democratic seats, since that's the point of this diary. I had four basic categories: Republican seats, Democratic seats, Competitive seats and seats where all we have to do is Give it Time.

Districts 1-3, 8, 10, 14, 18, 22-29, 44-47 and 49-50 are all solid Republican, adding up to 22 (majority is 26). A couple where I may be wrong are 29, which includes a big chunk of Williamson County, which wwmiv says is trending blue; and 27, where there's an outside chance a Chet Edwards-type Democrat is still surviving out there on cactus juice and armadillos that could take the seat.

-46.9 Obama, 51.3 Dem average
-VAP (only groups above 5%): 54.3 White, 23.7 Black, 17.9 Hispanic
A Beaumont to Galveston/Texas City district where local Dems outperformed Obama by 4 points, a Nick Lampson-type Democrat could win this (Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski perhaps?). Competitive

Dallas/Fort Worth

-63.7 Obama, 60.3 Dem average
-33.5 white, 41.8 black, 18.9 Hispanic
Black plurality. Blood-red Ellis and Navarro Counties combined with South Dallas. A black Democrat getting elected is almost assured. Dem

-48.3 Obama, 49.5 Dem average
-50.2 W, 20 B, 27.7 H
Kaufman, Henderson and Zandt Counties forced together with the liberal whites of Dallas and Hispanic areas. Local Dems outperformed Obama. Competitive

-44.9 O, 43.5 Dem
-57.8 W, 13 B, 25 H
Rockwall, Hunt, Hopkins and Rains Counties added to downtown Dallas. Give it Time

-53.1 O, 47.6 Dem
-35.3 W, 14.1 B, 43.8 H
Hispanic plurality. Competitive

-48.4 O, 45.1 Dem
-49.7 W, 18.9 B, 23.4 H, 6.1 Asian
Johnson County added to minority-heavy areas of Arlington. Give it Time/Competitive

-51.4 O, 46.5 Dem
-40.8 W, 13.8 B, 37.1 H
Hispanic areas in both Dallas and Tarrant Counties. Give it Time/Competitive

-48.5 O, 44.4 Dem
-54 W, 18.8 B, 22.4 H
Fort Worth and Arlington. I'm calling this Dem/Competitive because this is the successor to Wendy Davis' district, and she shouldn't have a whole lot of trouble getting elected in this district.

-46.4 O, 37.7 Dem
-56.9 W, 11.6 B, 20.9 H, 8.4 A
Hideous gerrymander. Dem areas of Denton, Lewisville, Plano and McKinney. Probably too optimistic, but I'm calling it a Give it Time


-77.5 O, 74.4 Dem
-25.7 W, 42.9 B, 23.7 H, 6.4 A
Black plurality. I tried to unpack the black vote in Houston so they'd have chances at a couple districts instead of Black Houstonians primarying each other every 4 years to get the only superblack seat. Dem

-66.2 O, 61.6 Dem
-31.7 W, 26.9 B, 35.9 H
Weak Hispanic plurality. Black or Hispanic opportunity district. Dem

-58.7 O, 59.6 Dem
-19.2 W, 12 B, 66.3 H
Hispanic majority. Dem

-46.4 O, 46.8 Dem
-32.3 W, 10.2 B, 53 H
Hispanic majority. Give it Time

-61.5 O, 55.8 Dem
-26.2 W, 28.3 B, 25.8 H, 18 A
Racial clusterfuck district. Could elect anyone from an Asian to a Caucasian. Dem

-53.3 O, 47.1 Dem
-27.3 W, 17.9 B, 40.2 H, 13.1 A
Hispanic plurality. Competitive

Austin and San Antonio

-58.1 O, 50.6 Dem
-50.5 W, 10.9 B, 30.9 H, 6 A

-60.3 O, 56 Dem
-46.1 W, 8.4 B, 41.9 H

-57.3 O, 50.6 Dem
-71.8 W, 17.1 H, 6.1 A

-50.1 O, 47.5 Dem
-39.8 W, 54.2 H
Hispanic majority. Competitive/Give it Time

-58.1 O, 54.8 Dem
-29.9 W, 11.9 B, 55.2 H
Hispanic majority. Dem

-54.8 O, 49.7 Dem
-30.9 W, 6.1 B, 58.6 H
Hispanic majority. Competitive

-42.4 O, 36.8 Dem
-47 W, 43.9 H
North San Antonio and some rural counties. Hispanic plurality by total population but not voting age population. Give it Time

South Texas

-50.6 O, 50.7 Dem
-31.2 W, 64.2 H
Hispanic majority. Competitive/Give it Time

-56.1 O, 58 Dem
-23 W, 73.3 H
Hispanic majority. Dem

-54.2 O, 55.1 Dem
-24.5 W, 72.7 H
Hispanic majority. Dem

-67.7 O, 65.7 Dem
-10.6 W, 87.4 H
Hispanic majority Dem

-58.2 O, 60.5 Dem
-17.6 W, 80.9 H
Laredo to South El Paso. Hispanic majority. Dem

El Paso

-44.4 O, 43.4 Dem
-35.6 W, 4.9 B, 56.9 H
North El Paso to San Angelo. Hispanic majority Give it Time

-70.6 O, 68.1 Dem
-12.1 W, 84.1 H
Hispanic majority. Dem
So, in a neutral, presidential year, Democrats can reasonably expect to have a floor of 14-16 seats (including at least 2 African-Americans and 7 Hispanics, plus 1-2 other minorities) and would have the ability to seriously contest 7 others. And add to that demographic changes in the state that could potentially open up 6 more! Which, assuming all goes well, Democrats could have a maximum potential of 29 seats in the State Senate by the end of the decade.

Thanks for reading.

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