Seasonally adjusted claims for unemployment benefits
rose last week, according to the Department of Labor. First-time claims for the week ending Nov. 26 climbed 6,000 to 402,000 from an upwardly revised 396,000 the previous week. The 4-week running average, which analysts prefer because it smoothes out the volatility of the weekly claims figures, increased slightly to 395,750.
In the past 12 months, the seasonally adjusted first-time claims applications hit a low of 384,000 in February and a high of 478,000 in April.
Three years ago when a handful of blogs including Daily Kos began focusing on unemployment compensation claims, hardly anyone in the megamedia was covering this weekly news or were burying it deep. Now the claims get "front page" treatment as analysts and pseudo-analysts poke around in the bottom of their tea cups for clues about the economy's direction. The message today is that the claims numbers rose "unexpectedly."
In fact, that word has been used countless times to describe both up-and-down motion in the benefit claims numbers since the recession began four years ago in December 2007. This time, the consensus of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected new claims to drop to 390,000. Last year at this time, new claims clocked in at 439,000.
Whether the Labor Department's monthly job report will also show "unexpected" results when it is released Friday is anybody's guess, and everybody does, with the consensus of economists missing in estimates more often than hitting. Speculation ahead of time is that the seasonally adjusted number of new jobs for November will show a significant increase over October. That view was bolstered Wednesday when a survey of private job creation by ADP indicated 206,000 new hires for the month. But the ADP report is rarely in sync with the government report.
Also released Wednesday was the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book," which summarizes the nation's economic activity eight times a year. It found expansion in every Fed district except St. Louis. But while no renewed recession is predicted, the report indicates that the economy is not growing anywhere near fast enough to reduce unemployment substantially.
As for the unemployment compensation that millions depend on to keep their heads barely above water during downturns in the economy, it's on the griddle again with Congress preparing for the holiday recess.
As Laura Clawson
pointed out Wednesday, those who depend on extended benefits as a consequence of not being able to find new work within six months of losing their job are under the gun for the umpteenth time. That's because the federally extended benefits programs (in the 34 states with the highest unemployment) makes people lazy according to many Republicans determined to force America back to work by chopping those benefits off. How they expect to make that work in an economy where unemployed people outnumber job openings by 4-1 they haven't said.
Unlike in the past couple of years, however, the GOP loudmouths who made proclamations about bon-bon eating layabouts sucking the public teat instead of pounding the pavement looking for work are a good deal quieter on the subject this time around. Indeed, they're half-conciliatory (as long, of course, as they can extract some budget cuts from the administration). Perhaps their campaign managers are explaining that riding into an election year with the severed head of extended jobless benefits dangling from their saddles has a few drawbacks.
For a few million Americans, however, maintaining the extensions will make no difference. They have already exhausted their extra benefits. Currently, according to the Census Bureau, only 48 percent of the unemployed are receiving benefit checks. Last year that figure was 75 percent.
Then there are the workers who were never eligible for any benefits in the first place, a fact too often forgotten every time this issue comes up for debate. What never seems to come up for discussion is the fact that the whole benefits system needs revamping. Except when the revamping is to chop, chop, chop, as some states have already done, having cut the number of weeks eligible workers can collect and the amount of each check. And they say progressives are the ones engaging in class warfare.
• The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Nov. 12 was 7,005,495, a boost of 276,832 from the previous week. That compares with 8,909,965 for the comparable period one year ago. How much of that is a consequence of exhausted benefits and how much due to formerly unemployed people finding a job is unknown.
• The largest increases in first-time claims for the week ending Nov. 19 were in California (+19,220) because of lay-offs in the manufacturing industries, Pennsylvania (+6,596), New York (+5,284), Washington (+3,791) and Florida (+3,412). The largest decreases were in Michigan (-1,881), Indiana (-1,474), Puerto Rico (-707), Maine (-197) and New Jersey (-128).
• There were 29,820 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Nov. 12, up 1,498 from the previous week.
• Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits rose to 43,018, up 2,869 from the previous week.
• States reported 2,972,894 persons claiming extended benefits under the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program for the week ending Nov. 12. That's up 76,254 from the previous week. Last year for the comparable week, there were 3,944,168 claimants.