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Bill Nelson
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Public Policy Polling (PDF). 11/28-12/1. Florida voters. MoE ±3.7% (9/22-25 in parentheses, 3/24-27 in brackets):

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 46 (--) [47]
Connie Mack IV (R): 35 (--) [34]
Undecided: 19 (--) [18]

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (49) [48]
Adam Hasner (R): 33 (35) [32]
Undecided: 19 (16) [20]

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (49) [48]
George LeMieux (R): 32 (35) [33]
Undecided: 20 (15) [19]

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (47) [--]
Mike McCalister (R): 32 (34) [--]
Undecided: 21 (19) [--]

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49 (49) [--]
Craig Miller (R): 30 (32) [--]
Undecided: 21 (19) [--]

Republican Rep. Connie Mack IV's entry (or re-entry?) into the Florida Senate race briefly shook things up in the polling world: With the entry of a well-known Republican into the field of nobodies, three polls suddenly showed the previously-uninteresting race looking like a tossup (although only one was from a well-regarded public pollster, Quinnipiac, who gave Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson a 42-40 lead; the others were from Rasmussen and a Republican internal pollster). Public Policy Polling's newest look at the race, though, finds little has changed, not just from their last few looks at the race but also the times from spring when they polled Mack back during the first time he was acting like a candidate. (We're making two sets of trendlines available because PPP stopping polling Mack over the summer when he declined the first time.)

Nelson gets compared a lot to Pennsylvania's Bob Casey Jr. (at least by PPP's Tom Jensen, and by us at DKos Elections), and here's why: Like Casey, his overall approvals aren't that good, which at a glance would suggest vulnerability. (Here, they're 38/37.) But that's largely because, as a moderate in a polarized state, a lot of more liberal Democrats don't approve of him (only 51/27) ... but, given the alternatives, will still vote for him anyway. And he pulls down better-than-usual crossover support from independents (they break for him 42-33) and even Republicans (among whom he pulls down 14 percent of their vote). Throw in a much more tepid reaction to Mack than the other pollsters captured (he has only 23/28 favorables here), and you've got the path to the upper 40s for Nelson, requiring him to nail down only a few more indies to secure the win.

PPP also polled the GOP primary, and like Quinnipiac before them (who gave Mack a 32-9 lead over his nearest opponent), find a huge lead for Mack versus the small fry who'd been previously cluttering the field (and who may start dropping out soon, though we can only hope some soldier on to poke holes in Mack). PPP finds Mack up 40-12 over former appointed Sen. George LeMieux, with everybody else in the low single digits. While the general election, with its diverging polls, may remain very much a question mark, there doesn't seem to be much drama left in the Republican primary.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Dec 02, 2011 at 12:33 PM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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