Skip to main content

Gingrich Romney
Newt Gingrich has held onto his lead over Mitt Romney (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
Gallup. Dec 4-8. Republicans. ±2.8%. (11/13-17 results, plus 2007 trends.)
The news here is that there isn't any new news: Gingrich is still holding a big national lead, thanks to combination of his own surge and the withdrawal of Herman Cain from the race.

I thought it would be interesting to show snapshots of the 2008 Republican primary from roughly the same periods of time. Obviously, one lesson of the 2008 primary is that polls can change, and quickly, but if you haven't realized that by now in the 2012 GOP nomination, you're not paying attention.

One of the biggest differences between now and 2008 is that there are only two candidates now in double-digits. Combined, they have 60 percent of the GOP vote. In 2008, there were five candidates in double digits. The key point: Candidates in third place and below had less room to make up in 2008 than they do today. Twenty-eight points separate Newt Gingrich from Ron Paul, the third place candidate—that's more than Rudy Giuliani had in total in 2008. Moreover, Giuliani averaged in the mid-30s throughout 2007; his 27 percent support represented a decline from his previous high. Gingrich, meanwhile, is on the upswing.

Especially in a year like this, you can never say never, but given the massive shift that would need to happen for one of the lesser candidates to get back in this race, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which either Gingrich or Romney isn't the nominee. Unless something spectacular happens in the next two debates (on Saturday and on Thursday), Mitt and Newt will almost certainly be the last two standing. I know that makes a lot of Republicans upset, but sorry guys, you gotta dance with the clowns you brought to the party.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Dec 09, 2011 at 01:20 PM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site