Rep. Geoff Davis (R)
Definitely a surprise move by GOP Rep. Geoff Davis (via the National Journal):
"In order to devote more time to my family, I have decided not to seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Davis was just 53 years old and had only been in office since 2004, not an especially long tenure. He also had a safe Republican seat that, if anything, was only likely to get redder in redistricting, and he even served on the powerful Ways & Means Committee. So when this kind of thing happens, you always have to wonder if there's more than meets the eye.
Unfortunately, Democrats probably don't have much of a shot here, regardless of what happens to the map. In 2004, when this seat was last open because Democrat Ken Lucas abided by a term-limits pledge, Davis handily beat Nick Clooney (father of George) by 10 points. The following cycle, the conservative Lucas opted for a comeback bid, but despite the wave year and a ton of money spend on his behalf, he also lost, by nine percent. Given that both Lucas and Clooney are in their late 70s, I doubt either would be interested in yet another run, even though the GOP doesn't have a particularly prominent bench in this region.
So the action here will likely be in the Republican primary. One possible candidate is former Secretary of State Trey Grayson, but he hied off to the rather un-Kentuckyish environs of Harvard after losing the GOP nomination for Senate to Rand Paul last year. Other potential names include state Sen. Damon Thayer and state Rep. Addia Wuchner. We'll keep you posted as we learn more.
6:15 PM PT: There is one Democratic name that I'm hearing about who could potentially make this race interesting: Former state Democratic Party co-chair Nathan Smith, who is a wealthy developer from northern Kentucky. He's very well-connected in Democratic circles and has donated a lot of money to candidates over the years. It's purely speculative at this point, but we'll be keeping an eye out.