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For any who may be reading one of my diaries for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435.

In light of the soul-crushing news out of Ohio in relation to redistricting, I thought I'd post my Ohio map for a Doubled House of Representatives. Unlike the atrocious map that's being proposed, where a best-case scenario would be 11-5 (assuming Sutton beats Renacci), my map, in which Ohio gets 32 districts, would be a 15-12-5 map.

Previous Doubling Diaries: HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

18 (Yellow)
VAP: 95.9 White
45.7 Obama, 50.9 Dem average (2006 statewide races)

The Dem average numbers may be a little skewed, As Ted Strickland is from this area. Current Rep. Jim Renacci (R) lives here, as do former Reps. John Boccieri and Zack Space (D) Tilt R with Boccieri or Space, Likely R without.

19 (Yellow-Green)
VAP: 94.8 W
47 Obama, 62.6 Dem

This is Ted Strickland's home district, so the numbers are quite off. Local Dems are probably still pretty strong though. Current Rep. Bill Johnson (R) and the man he beat in 2010, Charlie Wilson (D) both live here. Lean D

20 (Pink)
VAP: 93 W
41.1 Obama, 45.7 Dem

North Central Ohio. Current Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) lives here. Safe R

21 (Dark Brown)
VAP: 95 W
48 Obama, 57.3 Dem

No incumbent. Opportunity for a strong union Dem. Some of Zack Space's old territory is here. Swing

22 (Light Brown)
VAP: 94.3 White
43 Obama, 54.2 Dem

Same as above, but not as attractive for Dems Swing

24 (Purple)
VAP: 94.7 W
33.1 Obama, 37.2 Dem

No incumbent. Safe R

28 (Lavender)
VAP: 91.4 W, 5.2 Black
39.9 Obama, 42.7 Dem

Jim Jordan (R) lives here. Safe R

29 (Sea Green)
VAP: 89.8 W, 5.7 B
42 Obama, 43.3 Dem

Open seat in Columbus suburbs. Safe R

30 (Coral)
VAP: 92.6 W
41.7 Obama, 43.4 Dem

Pat Tiberi (R) lives here, and while he's far more vulnerable to a primary now, it's otherwise Safe for the GOP.

31 (Khaki)
VAP: 91.5 W
37 Obama, 40.5 Dem

This would be the home district of stunning write-in Congressman Burt Hummel (?). But in the real world, no incumbent and Safe R

32 (Orange)
VAP: 94 W
39.1 Obama, 41.4 Dem

No incumbent, ho-hum. Safe R

1 (Blue)
VAP: 46 W, 47.3 B
75.6 Obama, 68.9 Dem

Cincinnati. Plurality black. Rep. Steve Chabot (R) may live here, but sure as hell wouldn't want to run here. Former Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) lives here, but wouldn't make it through a primary. A Black Democrat would win here easy. Safe D

23 (Aqua)
VAP: 90 W
39.5 Obama, 398. Dem

Chabot would undoubtedly much rather run here, and his home could possibly be here instead of the 1st. Jean Schmidt (R) lives here too, but she's so weak that Chabot would crush her in the primary. Buh bye Jeannie. Safe R

25 (Mauve)
VAP: 90.6 W, 5.1 B
34 Obama, 35.8 Dem

Open seat in the Cincy suburbs. Safe R

26 (Gray)
VAP: 89.3 W
35.1 Obama, 36.8 Dem

Speaker John Boehner (R) lives here. Safe R

3 (Purple)
VAP: 66.6 W, 27.4 B
62.3 Obama, 59.7 Dem

Dayton. Mike Turner (R) lives here, but would lose. Safe D

27 (Spring Green)
VAP: 90.5 W
37.3 Obama, 38.2 Dem

Steve Austria (R) lives here, but seat gets far redder so he may not like the primary vulnerability. Safe R for whoever makes it out of the primary.

2 (Green)
VAP: 48.4 W, 42 B
72.1 Obama, 67.7 Dem

White plurality in Columbus.Almost certain to elect a black Democrat. Safe D

4 (Red)
VAP: 76.9 W, 14.1 B
61.6 Obama, 62.5 Dem

Open seat. State Rep Ted Celeste's (D) home is here. Former Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) would want to run here, but she was never a great candidate so Celeste would probably win a primary. Safe D

5 (Gold)
VAP: 84.1 W, 6.8 Asian
49.7 Obama, 48.5 Dem

Rep. Steve Stivers (R) lives here. This is safer for him than the current 15th, but still Swing

10 (Magenta)
VAP: 71.5 W, 20.1 B, 5.2 Hispanic

Toledo. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) lives here, and would love this district. Safe D

11 (Chartreuse)
VAP: 90.6 W
52.5 Obama, 54.4 Dem

Rep. Bob Latta (R) lives here, but probably wouldn't want to run here. I imagine he'd rather jump ship to either the 20th, 31st or 32nd, or just retire. Lean D

12 (Green)
VAP: 84.7 W, 6.7 B, 6 H
56.6 Obama, 61.6 Dem

Lorain County and into Cuyahoga. No incumbent Safe D

7 (Gray)
VAP: 45 W, 48 B
80.6 Obama, 81.4 Dem

Plurality black. Open seat. Safe D

8 (Slate)
VAP: 45.8 W, 44 B, 6.7 H
79.3 Obama, 80.1 Dem

Plurality white. Rep. Marcia Fudge (D) lives here. Safe D

9 (Cyan)
VAP: 86.9 W, 5.3 B
59.4 Obama, 64.4 Dem

Probably my biggest problem with this entire map: a district for Dennis Kucinich. Likely D with Kucinich, Safe D otherwise

6 (Teal)
VAP: 77.8 W, 17.3 B
63.6 Obama, 68.6 Dem

Akron. Rep. Betty Sutton (D) either lives in this district or the 13th. Safe D

13 (Skin)
VAP: 92 W
47.2 Obama, 52.1 Dem

As above, Sutton may live in this district. It's not nearly as blue as the Akron district, but Sutton might not survive a primary there. There's a decent amount of her current territory. Likely D with Sutton, Tossup otherwise

14 (Olive)
VAP: 90.1 W, 6.5 B
51.6 Obama, 55.1 Dem

Canton. Open seat. Lean D

15 (Orange)
VAP: 81.7 W, 13.4 B
64.2 Obama, 76.3 Dem

Rep. Tim Ryan (D) lives here. Safe D

16 (Lime)
VAP: 92.9 W
50.3 Obama, 51.4 Dem

Open seat. Swing

17 (Salmon)
VAP: 95 W
48.8 Obama, 59.1 Dem

Steve LaTourette's home is here, but most of his old territory is in the open 16th. He'd probably rather run there, because local Dems here are strong. Swing with LaTourette, Lean D otherwise
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So this map is 15-12-5, including 2 new black Congressmen in addition to Marcia Fudge. This is much MUCH better than the proposed 12-4 map that Democrats caved on. It brings the House total so far to 30-19-6

Please tell me what you think, especially if you're an Ohioan!

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