For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. Also: As has been mentioned, I do draw these maps from a Democratic perspective, these are not like the maps that would be passed by the legislative process in Virginia. I cannot think like a Republican trifecta, and I view this as a good thing.
Best case scenario under the current system: Democrats force Republicans in the State Senate into a power-sharing agreement instead of seizing control outright. If they fail, Republicans control the trifecta and therefore could wreak havor on the congressional map. That said, Republicans don't have much clout to wield on the subject, assuming they have a brain cell left in their body (verdict's out). The current Virginia congressional delegation is 3-8, and Republicans are maxed out, politically.
Well in Doubling, Virginia would get 23 seats. Let's see what we can do!
Previous Doubling Diaries: OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
1 (Blue)
VAP: 39.1 White, 50 Black, 6.4 Hispanic
78.3 Obama, 72 Dem average (all 2000-2009 statewide races)
Black majority. City of Richmond and a couple odds and ends in the surrounding counties. No incumbent. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R) technically lives in the district but his political base was never here. He'd never ever run here and expect to win. Safe D, African-American all but assured.
5 (Gold)
VAP: 53 W, 41.4 B
55.6 Obama, 51.3 Dem
Black influence. Cities of Petersburg, Hopewell, Franklin and Emporia. No incumbent; lots of Randy Forbes's (R) territory is here but I doubt he'd chance a run here. Great opening for a black Democrat Likely D
6 (Teal)
VAP: 70.7 W, 22.3 B
53.6 Obama, 50.7 Dem
Charlottesville. My favorite part of this map: a district for Tom Perriello (D). Assuming he doesn't run statewide in 2013 that is. Safer than the current 5th for Dems. Likely D with Perriello, Swing otherwise
7 (Gray)
VAP: 74.3 W, 12.9 B, 6.5 Asian
43 Obama, 39.4 Dem
Richmond suburbs. Turf-wise, Eric Cantor would probably run either here or in the 19th. Safe R
9 (Cyan)
VAP: 75.9 W, 15.7 B
40.9 Obama, 39.5 Dem
More Richmond suburbs plus Hampton suburbs. No incumbent. Safe R
15 (Orange)
VAP: 86.9 W, 6.3 H
41.5 Obama, 38.4 Dem
Cities of Harrisonburg and Winchester. No incumbent; Some of Frank Wolf's (R) turf is here and he could run if he doesn't run closer to home where it's bluer, but he'd be much more vulnerable to a primary if he runs here and he ain't getting any younger. Safe R
17 (Navy)
VAP: 71.2 W, 13.2 B, 9.1 H
45.5 Obama, 41.9 Dem
Outer D.C. burbs. No incumbent; appears to be a demographic timebomb. Safe R for now
18 (Salmon)
VAP: 73.9 W, 18.6 B
44.4 Obama, 42.1 Dem
Fredericksburg, etc. Rob Wittman (R) lives here, and he thanks me for this district, getting 4 points safer Safe R
19 (Yellow-green)
VAP: 87.3 W, 8.7 B
38.9 Obama, 37.6 Dem
Outer Richmond plus Waynesboro and Staunton. No incumbent; as I said above, Eric Cantor could either run here or in the 7th. Safe R
20 (Pink)
VAP: 82.8 W, 13.2 B
37.2 Obama, 38.8 Dem
Lynchburg. No incumbent; has a decent amount of Bob Goodlatte's (R) current territory. Safe R
21 (Dark Brown)
VAP: 82.8 W, 10.3 B
48.7 Obama, 47.9 Dem
Roanoke, Salem and Blacksburg. This is fun; Bob Goodlatte and Morgan Griffith (R) both live here, but neither would want to run here. The right candidate could win this. Swing
22 (Light Brown)
VAP: 79.4 W, 16.9 B
42.5 Obama, 43.3 Dem
Danville to Radford. Robert Hurt (R) lives here, but is removed from a lot of his current district. He'd definitely want to run here though. Safe R
23 (Aqua)
VAP: 95.2 W
35.9 Obama, 41.8 Dem
The poky part of the state. Morgan Griffith would much rather run here than in the 21st. Safe R
2
VAP: 46.4 W, 43 B, 5.2 H
70.2 Obama, 66.2 Dem
Plurality white. Cities of Norfolk and Portsmouth. No incumbent; opening for a black Democrat. Safe D
3
VAP: 57.5 W, 27 B, 5.8 H, 7.1 A
55.4 Obama, 51 Dem
Minority and Dem areas of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach. Scott Rigell and Randy Forbes could both potentially live here, but neither would run here. Lean D
4
VAP: 49.8 W, 40.2 B, 5 H
62.2 Obama, 57 Dem
Plurality white. Cities of Newport News and Hampton. Bobby Scott lives here, but he may not like it. It's no longer majority black and he takes a 14 point haircut. If he's a team player, he should still win here easy. Safe D
8
VAP: 74.4 W, 16.4 B
42.3 Obama, 41.9 Dem
Chesapeake and Virginia Beach remainders plus the Delmarva peninsula. Rigell and Forbes would both want this seat, but obviously only one would win. Edge to Forbes based on seniority and the fact that Rigell was swept in by the 2010 wave; bye bye Scotty. Safe R
10
VAP: 62.2 W, 13 B, 14.1 H, 8.3 A
70.2 Obama, 69.1 Dem
City and County of Alexandria. Jim Moran (D) lives here; there'll be an opening for a minority once he retires. Safe D
11
VAP: 57.4 W, 5.1 B, 16.6 H, 18.6 A
60.2 Obama, 57.7 Dem
City of Fairfax and part of Fairfax County. Gerry Connolly (D) and Frank Wolf both live here. Even Frank Wolf would have a lot of trouble winning this one. Lean D with Wolf, Safe D otherwise
12
VAP: 54.5 W, 13 B, 16.4, 13.7 A
60.2 Obama, 56.5 Dem
Fairfax County. Open; opening for a minority in this barely white-majority district. Safe D
13
VAP: 57.8 W, 8 B, 10.9 H, 20.8 A
57 Obama, 52.4 Dem
Fairfax County. No incumbent; once again, decent chance for a minority, especially an Asian Likely D
14
VAP: 62.4 W, 7.3 B, 12.4 H, 15.6 A
55.1 Obama, 49.8 Dem
Fairfax and Loudon Counties. This would probably be the district Frank Wolf would hate least of his options; Obama did only 2 points better here than in Wolf's current district, and that's with Obama's general overperformance in the NoVa region. He would win it, but it would be a certain pickup once he retires. Safe R with Wolf, Swing without
16
VAP: 48.8 W, 20.7 B, 21 H, 6.9 A
59.9 Obama, 52.1 Dem
Plurality white. Prince William County and City of Manassas. No incumbent; opening for a minority (sensing a theme?). Likely D
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So, assuming Perriello ran in the 6th and Wolf ran in the 14th, this would produce a 11-11-1 map, tilting to 12-10-1 after Wolf retires. This includes a minimum of two black members (including Bobby Scott) with one more likely and a 4th and 5th possible. Also, in Fairfax County, there are clear openings for 2 minorities in the Fairfax districts, and 2 more once Connolly and Moran retire. So in short, 3 minorities (all but) assured, and a potential for 9. Not bad for the Old Dominion! The House so far stands at 41-30-7.
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