The Clash knew what was up. Indeed, if redistricting in Olympia weren't done by a bipartisan commission, Democrats could control the process from top to bottom. And if they had complete control, they could draw a polite little gerrymander that wouldn't be horrible and twisted a la Republicans' artistry in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but would likely deliver Washington's new 10th congressional district into Democratic hands and flip one of the state's four seats currently held by the GOP.
So, inspired by a discussion I had with DK Electioneer and fellow Oregonian tietack in another diary, I set out to do my duty for King County and country.
So here's the map. I do have water precincts colored in due to counties' inconsistency in rendering them separate (at least on DRA), so I apologize for that bit of aesthetic undesirability. Anyway, as for the map itself, I actually tried to preserve communities of interest where reasonable here. The gerrymander is in how those communities of interest are combined.
WA-01 (blue): OPEN - 56.6% Murray, 43.4% Rossi
This seat is being vacated by Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee as he runs for governor. I cannily excised the homes of the two candidates running to place him whom I find most objectionable, namely conservaDem Steve Hobbs of Lake Stevens and firebagger Darcy Burner of Carnation. Rather than go into north Seattle, I followed the ferry route from Edmonds to Kingston and took in much of the Kitsap Peninsula, including the blue-collar port town of Bremerton, as well as Bainbridge Island (connected via the Highway 305 bridge from Suquamish). The Democrat should romp here, and in a district this Democratic, I think the party can spring for a strong progressive. Safe Democratic.
WA-02 (green): Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Everett) - 51.1% Murray, 48.9% Rossi
Larsen's hometown of Everett, often considered Seattle's northernmost suburb, just barely stays within this northern district. The district doesn't change dramatically, and most drawings I've seen gaming out a 10-district post-redistricting Washington have it looking very similar to this. Sen. Patty Murray, the Democratic incumbent who beat Republican perennial candidate Dino Rossi by five points statewide during last year's red wave, underperformed her statewide numbers. Then-Sen. Barack Obama won here easily in 2008, though. A Republican could win here, but not against Larsen and probably not without another big national wave election for Team Red plus a really strong candidate able to tamp down Democratic performance in places like Everett and Bellingham. Safe Democratic with Larsen, Likely Democratic without Larsen.
WA-03 (purple): Rep. Jaime Herrera Buetler (R-Camas) - 49.5% Murray, 50.5% Rossi
My original goal in doing this map was to save Vancouver and the cluster of swingish and blue inner Portland suburbs across the Columbia from America's finest city from representation by one of House Speaker John Boehner's toadies. Vancouver deserves better. So, I redistricted the area into a much more liberal district combining a community of interest in the Columbia River Gorge west of the cohesive Tri-Cities area with a community of interest along the Pacific coast of the Olympia Peninsula, including the Democratic bastions of Port Angeles and Port Townsend that stare out north toward Vancouver Island. It's still a Rossi district, but by my back-of-the-envelope calculations, Obama should have carried this district over Sen. John McCain in 2008 by a double-digit margin. I'm going to call it a swing district, but I think it'd probably be inclined to give Herrera Buetler the boot and after installing a Democrat, it would be fairly well locked down for the decade. Lean Democratic.
WA-04 (red): Rep. Doc Hastings (R-Pasco) - 35.1% Murray, 64.9% Rossi
This is probably within shouting distance of being the most Republican district it is possible to draw in Washington. Hastings, who hails from the Tri-Cities, helps himself to some conservative cities in south-central Washington, the largest of which is Yakima, and goes all the way up to the international border with Canada, trimming around East Wenatchee in the process. Safe Republican.
WA-05 (yellow): Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane) - 41.8% Murray, 58.2% Rossi
McMorris Rodgers's district hugs the state line with Idaho from the 46th parallel north that (unfortunately) divides Oregon and Washington east of the Columbia River up to the 49th parallel north that divides Washington and British Columbia. Outside of the swingy regional metropole of Spokane and the small but blueish college town of Walla Walla, this is quite Republican country, and it would very likely reelect McMorris Rodgers in a walk. Safe Republican.
WA-06 (chartreuse): Rep. Norm Dicks (D-Belfair) - 51.3% Murray, 48.7% Rossi
Although Dicks might not be happy to have Bremerton outside his district, he can't complain about getting all of Olympia as well as University Park in neighboring Pierce County. In fact, Dicks gets a pretty good deal overall, as this is one of the most Democratic seats I've seen drawn for him on this website. Murray didn't do outstandingly here last year, in part due to Rossi's big overperformance in Pierce County, but she still won the district, and Obama probably carried it by close to his statewide margin of 17 points. Safe Democratic with Dicks, Likely Democratic without Dicks.
WA-07 (magenta): Rep. Jim McDermott (D-Seattle) - 80.7% Murray, 19.3% Rossi
This is the most Democratic white-majority district in the country. By far. Seattle remains entirely intact; to make up the remaining population, the district also takes in Mercer Island and Tukwila. Very tidy. McDermott could be caught sodomizing the preserved corpse of Vladimir Lenin and still beat Republican Jesus here. Safe Democratic.
WA-08 (teal): Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) - 43% Murray, 57% Rossi
Every two years, we try to beat Dave Reichert. And every two years, Dave Reichert is reelected. I did what I did with Rep. Frank LoBiondo, the Republican congressman from Ocean City in New Jersey, in another diary; I gave this political cockroach a Republican vote sink. Of course, he might get his ass primaried over his occasional flashes of independence from the party line. Safe Republican with Reichert, Likely Republican without Reichert.
WA-09 (orange): Rep. Adam Smith (D-Tacoma) - 57.5% Murray, 42.5% Rossi
Smith gets none of Seattle. However, he gets most of Seattle's southern suburbs, namely the heavily Democratic inner ones that make up the SeaTac corridor down to his hometown of Tacoma. This is an even bluer district than the Senate numbers suggest, as Rossi did relatively better in Pierce and King counties (his home base) compared to his statewide baseline. Safe Democratic.
WA-10 (navy): OPEN - 50.2% Murray, 49.8% Rossi
Aside from Herrera Buetler's carefully crafted seat, this is the district that is the crown jewel of this map. It's an entirely new open seat that combines north-central Washington, including the college town of Ellensburg and the growing Wenatchee micropolitan area, with the Eastside community of interest (excluding Sammamish and Mercer Island) centered on Bellevue and stretching as far south as Renton. The most prominent pass linking this areas across the Cascade Range is Snoqualmie Pass on Interstate 90, which it shares with Reichert's district due to the way the voting precincts are currently drawn. The liberal bent of the Eastside is strong enough to counteract the conservative tendencies of the Inland Empire (here I should note that Ellensburg, or E-burg as it's often called by Pacific Northwesterners, actually voted for Obama in 2008 and Murray in 2010 and thus deserves recognition for bucking the region's general political orientation), resulting in a district that Murray carried last year by about half a percentage point. That means Obama probably won here by 13 points or so. Part of me wants to call this a swing district, but I just don't see the booming Eastside getting outvoted any time this decade barring very unusual circumstances. Likely Democratic.
So here's the map, which I'll call a 6-3-1, in partisan colors.
If pushed, though, I'd call the map a 7-3. After all, most of the internal migration to Clark County is coming from across the Columbia River, from Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties in Oregon; and most of the internal migration to Clallam and Jefferson counties at the northern end of the Olympic Peninsula is coming from King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties in metro Seattle. That means those counties are likely to shift more Democratic, assuming those trends hold (and don't simply represent outnumbered conservatives fleeing two of the most liberal cities in the country).
Thoughts?