I’m writing because I’m a poll freak. I’ve tried counseling, various self-help programs but nothing works. I admit I’m an addict and I have given up seeking interventions. So when I see even the slightest wobble in polls, I salivate.
Now this morning, I’m writing about Realclearpolitics.com because I’ve had it with them. They claim to be a corral that looks at all polls and aggregates them to eliminate outliers. So early yesterday, I stopped by to check out the Obama average and I found eight polls with the latest being Fox News on 12/7/2011.
Everything looks in order here—nothing to see. Yesterday was the 19th so they had 12-days of polling which is fairly accurate. So, when ABC came out with Obama back at 49%, I rushed back over to get their 9-poll average and I was shocked. Obama’s spread actually went up. What, huh, how. Check this:
Here’s their morning score with my black-out of the ABC poll:
So according to Realclear:
Obama started the morning with: 45/48.9 a -3.9 spread. Then when the 49% ABC approval came out his negatives went up to: 45.8/50 with a -4.2 spread.
Actually, this is the number a legitimate pollster would have reported: 45.44/48.66 3.22 spread. I'll show you how shortly.
So how does a polling company change a president’s disapproval rate from 48.66% to 50% which looks and sounds a lot better to their right-wing customers.
Bam!!!
Want to change Obama's approval?
You just DROP all of the recent polls!!
Even if they were finished on the 12th and the most recent ones were done four days later. You just squash them when ABC comes along because all of those 46s, 47s and now 49 is starting to look like a trend.
I can anticipate their defenders would argue that they only tabulate the most recent results.
Wrong!!
Bam!!
On the very same site, they go all the way back to November so what gives?
Of course, they could have been consistent and cut both polls off on 12/12 and I wouldn’t be writing this post. But they didn’t so instead of Obama being +2 against Romney, he’s +1.7 which looks so much better to their customers.
Realclear, this is not the first time. I’ve written you personally several times over the past months about the many games you continue to play.
Now it’s time to call you out.