For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435.
Coming off the heels of New Jersey's congressional redistricting map being released, I drew this map. The finalized plan appears to be a 6-6, with the potential for a 7-5 once Frank LoBiondo retires. So I wanted to see if I could make it better, while attempting to shoot for compactness and maximizing minority voting power. The "Dem Average" numbers shown are an average of President 2008, Senate 2002/2006/2008 and Governor 2009
Under Doubling, New Jersey gets 25 districts.
Previous Doubling Diaries: VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
South
1
VAP: 51.1 White, 26.2 Black, 16 Hispanic
71 Obama, 66.7 Dem average
This is an open district centered in the city of Camden. There's an opening for a black Democrat in the primary. Safe D, black opportunity
2
VAP: 76.1 W, 12.5 B, 5.2 H, 5 Asian
64.5 Obama, 61.3 Dem
Camden County. Rep. Rob Andrews (D-Haddon Heights) lives here and would have no problem winning. Safe D
3
VAP: 82.1 W, 10.1 B
55.2 Obama, 54.2 Dem
Camden, Gloucester and Salem counties. Open seat, Dem strength is pretty consistent in the district. Likely D
4
VAP: 68.9 W, 12.6 B, 11.3 H, 5.8 A
54.1 Obama, 52.6 Dem
Atlantic City and environs. Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor City) lives here, and despite the Democratic lean it is very similar to his current district. Safe R with LoBiondo, Lean D when he retires.
5
VAP: 71.6 W, 10.7 B, 13.4 H
55.1 Obama, 51.5 Dem
Leftover southern Jersey, centered in Cumberland County (Cities of Bridgeton, Millville and Vineland). Rep. Jon Runyan (R-Mount Laurel Township) lives here, but he's separated from most of his current territory and it's 3 points more Democratic than his current district. Lean D
6
VAP: 90.4 W, 5.2 H
41.5 Obama, 42.6 Dem
Ocean County. Open district. Runyan may want to run here instead of the one containing his home, but considering the lean of his current district he may have trouble making it out of the primary. Safe R for whoever makes it.
7
VAP: 78.9 W, 7.3 B, 9.5 H
45.4 Obama, 43.4 Dem
Burlington, Monmouth and Ocean Counties. As I'll show in a minute, Rep. Chris Smith (R-Hamilton) doesn't live here, but it contains much of his territory and he'd certainly rather run here than his home district, as I'll show in a second. Safe R
North
8
VAP: 64.1 W, 18.2 B, 12.6 H
59.6 Obama, 54.9 Dem
City of Trenton, etc. As I mentioned, Chris Smith's home is here, but he sure as shit wouldn't want to run here. Rep. Rush Holt (D-Hopewell Township) also lives here, and while he's cut off from a decent portion of his current territory, I don't think he'd have a problem winning Safe D with Holt, Likely D otherwise
9
VAP: 42.7 W, 12.6 B, 15.3 H, 27.4 A
71.3 Obama, 64.3 Dem
Open; plurality white. Princeton and into North/New Brunswick. A lot of Holt's territory ended up here, but I'd hope he'd run in the 8th instead, because there's a great opportunity for an Asian to win here. Safe D, Asian opportunity
10
VAP: 56.2 W, 8.4 B, 10.1 H, 23.3 A
59.4 Obama, 57.7 Dem
Open. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Beach) has a lot of old turf here, and he probably wouldn't want to chance it in the district containing his home, so this is likely where he'd run. Without Pallone, it's another Asian opportunity district. Safe D
11
VAP: 75.9 W, 9.4 B, 9.9 H
50.1 Obama, 47.7 Dem
Like I said, Frank Pallone's home is here, and it's not nearly as friendly as his current district, so he may "carpetbag" to the 10th. A strong Dem could win here, but a moderate Republican à la LoBiondo could survive here as well. Swing
12
VAP: 80.5 W, 6.9 H, 8.4 A
47.7 Obama, 48.1 Dem
Open. Monmouth and Middlesex Counties. Likely R, but the Dem average is slightly higher than Obama's performance, so it could be heading slightly towards us.
13
VAP: 35.1 W, 17 B, 41.2 H, 5.1 A
67.3 Obama, 66.3 Dem
Open; plurality Hispanic. A Hispanic is almost certain to make it out of the Democratic primary, and would be more than fine in the general election . Safe D, Hispanic pickup
14
VAP: 14.1 W, 63.8, 16.6 H
94.4 Obama, 91 Dem
Majority Black. Rep. Donald Payne (D-Newark) gets even safer, not that he needed it. Safe D
15
VAP: 34.2 W, 17.4 B, 25.7 H, 19.8 A
73.7 Obama, 73.8 Dem
Open; plurality white, racial clusterfuck. Jersey City and towns of Kearny and Harrison. I could not begin to speculate which race the Democrat who makes it out of the primary would be, but whomever it may be, s/he is golden. Safe D, likely minority pickup
16
VAP: 40.1 W, 26.5 B, 25.7 H, 5.6 A
72.3 Obama, 69.6 Dem
Open; plurality white. Cities of Orange and East Orange, townships of West Orange, Montclair, Bloomfield and Nutley. African-Americans and Hispanics would have an edge in the Democratic primary over white pols, and whichever made it out of the primary would be quite safe. Safe D, likely black or hispanic pickup
17
VAP: 34.5 W, 53.5 H, 7.7 A
70.3 Obama, 70.4 Dem
Rep. Albio Sires (D-West New York) gets a majority Hispanic district, as opposed to his current majority White one. Hoboken and Union City, towns of West New York and Secaucus. Safe D
18
VAP: 50.9 W, 9.7 B, 18.2 H, 19.7 A
63 Obama, 64.4 Dem
Open; bare majority white. Rep. Steve Rothman (D-Fair Lawn) doesn't live here, but his political base of Englewood is. Rothman is already "carpetbagging" out of his home district under the new congressional map, so he'd have no problem making the decision again without even a primary to worry about. Safe D
19
VAP: 31.3 W, 14.8 B, 46.9 H, 5.4 A
72.5 Obama, 71.2 Dem
Plurality Hispanic. Cities of Paterson, Passaic and Clifton. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) lives here, but similarities to his current district end there. He'd likely lose to a Hispanic in a primary, if he just doesn't retire outright. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
20
VAP: 63.6 W, 11.1 B, 15.2 H, 8.9 A
53.5 Obama, 48.3 Dem
Open seat in Somerset County. Rep. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton Township), whose district was dismantled, would probably rather run here (or the 22nd) than in his home district, as you'll see. It's still more Dem than his current district though, making it Swing
21
VAP: 88 W, 6 H
40.8 Obama, 36.6 Dem
NW Jersey. As I said above, Lance would not want to run here despite his home being placed here. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage Township) lives here too, and he finally gets a district that fits him far better than his current district. Safe R
22
VAP: 76.7 W, 5.8 B, 9.3 H, 7.3 A
51.9 Obama, 50.6 Dem
Open. As I said above, Leonard Lance would run either here or in the 20th rather than the district where his home ended up. Obama did worse here than in the 20th, but Corzine and Lautenberg/Menendez did better. Lance is driven into a choice he'd probably much rather not make. Swing
23
VAP: 73.2 W, 12.4 H, 10 A
46.5 Obama, 42.6 Dem
Morris County. Rep. Rodney Freylinghuysen (R-Harding Township) lives here, and would like this district just fine Likely R
24
VAP: 84.8 W, 7 H, 5.4 A
42.7 Obama, 41.7 Dem
Open. Safe R
25
VAP: 76.3 W, 9 H, 12 A
49.9 Obama, 49.7 Dem
As I said a ways back, Steve Rothman lives here, but would most likely run in the open 18th. Obama only lost this district by about 400 votes, so it's Lean R.
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So, compared to the commission's 6-5-LoBiondo map, this map is 14-8-3, complete with 4 new districts (in addition to the current 2) where a minority is likely to win, and two extra opportunity districts. Runyan, Smith, Lance and Pascrell all see their districts dismantled. The entire House so far stands at 55-38-10.
Please let me know what you think!