This is my entry for the DKE redistricting contest - redistricting Chicago's 50 wards.
It's unlikely that any one map can fulfill everyone's goals, so I'll try to set forth what my goals were and how they led to this final product. My map is first and foremost intended to be an impartial "communities of interest" map.
Communities of Interest and Methodological Considerations
In general, I did not set out to favor any particular group, Ward, or incumbent, but rather drew lines following "neighborhood" boundaries provided in the contest instructions, on the theory that these neighborhoods are communities of interest. However, I did deliberately favor Ed Burke (Ward 14) and Dick Mell (Ward 33) because drawing favorable districts for them is a part of the contest rules.
Other than those two special cases, I conducted what I consider to be "good government" redistricting. This included intentionally breaking up official neighborhoods for four and only four reasons:
1) Population equality - Although population deviation of up to 5% is tolerated as a part of the contest rules, it's perfectly possible to draw wards with minimal deviations from the 53,912 person ideal. Since it is perfectly possible to draw equally populated districts, I can see no good reason not do so and thus arbitrarily give people in certain geographic areas a greater political voice than people in other arbitrary geographical areas. All my wards have deviations below 1,000, which could be further equalized by redrawing precincts. As a note to anyone else participating in the contest, I drew my 50 wards on a statewide map with 238 district slots. That gives each district an ideal population of 53,910. If your computer can handle it, I would recommend using that number of district slots - it makes it very easy to keep track of what districts are over and under-populated.
2) Division of Hispanic/African American districts - Chicago is a fairly segregated city, with clear geographical dividing lines between different racial groups. I followed those lines where they conflicted with official neighborhood lines. For example, the official neighborhood "Back of the Yards" has some overwhelmingly Hispanic precincts, some overwhelmingly African American precincts, and some mixed precincts with white majorities. I put the Hispanic precincts in Hispanic majority Ward 12, while the African American and White majority precincts went into African American majority Wards (4 and 15).
3) Drawing a plurality Asian Ward - Although Chicago is 5.4% Asian and 5.9% Asian VAP, there is not currently even a single Asian plurality/majority Ward. I disregarded neighborhood in order to give Ward 11 a strong 44.4% Asian plurality.
4) Making Wards 26, 30, and 35 all over 65% Hispanic - When I first drew these three wards, one of them had a Hispanic population in the high 70s, while the other two districts had a Hispanic population in the mid 50s. I broke up Logan Square among 3 wards rather than just 2 wards in order to get all of these districts above the 65% Hispanic population mark.
Faithfully following neighborhood lines was often difficult not only because the neighborhood map is not overly detailed, but also because large numbers of precincts clearly include parts of more than one neighborhood, or cross on two sides of a major road. I did the best I could with an acceptable margin of error/level of fudging, but to really do this right, you would have to go below the precinct level.
While I wasn't specifically looking to protect incumbents, I also was not seeking to create total chaos. To that end, I did try to pay attention to the overall contours and cores of current Ward lines. I also retrospectively re-numbered some wards after determining that they actually shared more territory than I initially thought with a previous ward. As a result, most wards keep significant shares of their previous constituents (a majority or at least a plurality). However, I don't know how many incumbents live in their new wards because I don't know precisely where the current Aldermen live. All but a handful of incumbent aldermen have somewhere where they can plausibly run and which they can claim to have previously represented. Because of African American population declines, two Wards (3 and 7) are moved entirely from the South Side and shift north. Ward 3 becomes a new majority white district just north of the Loop, while Ward 7 becomes a new Hispanic majority district in Montclare/Belmont Central.
Minority Voting Rights
First of all, I wanted to get the racial balancing act right. I looked at the number of districts each racial group would theoretically be proportionally "entitled to" if wards were allocated on the basis of total population or on the basis of VAP. I wanted my final map to be at least basically commensurate with this basic math. I considered some slight deviation from the proportional number of wards to be acceptable if those wards truly emerged naturally.
I ended up with 15 majority White wards, 16 majority Black wards, 14 Majority Hispanic wards (11 of which have a Hispanic population share of greater than 65%). There is also a plurality Asian ward, 3 plurality white wards, and a plurality Black ward. Overall, I think this is a pretty good reflection of Chicago. Asians are inevitably underrepresented. The number of majority African American wards is in line with the African American population share. The number of Hispanic majority/super-majority wards is in the right general range, though you could argue that Hispanics are a bit overrepresented depending upon what measuring stick you use (VAP, total population, or something else such as CVAP), and depending on whether you take into account the fact that actual Hispanic voting strength is often much less than Hispanic population strength. I made the Hispanic Wards in the heavily Mexican-American southern earmuff as heavily Hispanic as I could to maximize the actual control of the districts by Hispanic voters, given low turnout. However, in the northern earmuff, which includes a greater number of Puerto Ricans, the Hispanic percentages are generally a bit lower (even if still a supermajority), on the theory that Puerto Rican origin Hispanics have more voting power than Mexican origin Hispanics. White representation is nominally one district short of where it "should be" in terms of population and 4 districts short in terms of VAP, but when one takes into account the white plurality districts and the fact that White voters will likely effectively control at least some of the nominally Hispanic districts, I think you have to conclude that there is also about the "right" number of majority/plurality White districts.
Given that the Black Caucus has proposed a map with 19 Black majority wards, they may be somewhat disappointed in this map. Since I also drew 14 Hispanic majority wards, there might be some attempt to characterize this map not as neutral, but rather as pro-Hispanic/anti-African American. Frankly, while I understand that African Americans would like to keep as much of their existing influence as possible, so many majority African American wards are simply not merited by the population math or geography. African American population loss in Chicago is a reality, and the new ward maps will reflect that unless they are specifically gerrymandered not to reflect it. I also presume that the trend of African American depopulation is likely to continue in the coming years as African Americans move to both the South and the Suburbs. If that is the case, then even with 16 Wards, African Americans may be overrepresented in the future. As long as population rather than some other criteria such as CVAP is used to draw districts, then based on the census numbers, in my opinion the Hispanic caucus simply has the better end of the argument - to say that the truth must lie somewhere in between is to draw a false equivalence. This is not to say that a larger number like 18 or 19 African American majority wards would necessarily be unjustified if they emerged naturally, but they don't - you have to gerrymander, split, and crack to get them. And given that I was trying to draw a neutral communities of interest map, I just wasn't going to do that absent strong justification.
And Finally... The Map
Here's a citywide map (click for full sized image):
And here are statistics on the racial breakdown of each ward and the percent of the people in each ward who previously lived in the same ward:
Below, we will go through each ward one by one, working from south to north. To provide some sort structure, the wards are broken up into 5 thematic groups:
1) The (Predominantly) African American South Side Wards
2) The (Predominantly) Hispanic Luis Gutiérrez Southern Earmuff Wards
3) The (Predominantly) African American Danny Davis West Side Wards
4) The (Predominantly) Hispanic Luis Gutiérrez Northern Earmuff Wards
5) The (Predominantly) White North Side Wards
The (Mostly) African American South Side Wards
Ward 10
Hedgewisch, Harbour Point Estates, East Side, South Deerling, Trumbull Park, the Bush, South Chicago (Part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
94% |
17% |
20% |
62% |
0% |
Ward 10 stays essentially the same as it is now. The Hispanic population percentage remains just below 65%. The 65% mark appears to be unreachable unless you under-populate the Ward. You could get the Hispanic population slightly higher by ignoring neighborhood boundaries, but the difference is so small that it's not worth it.
Ward 19
Tally's Corner, Mount Greenwood, Mount Greenwood Heights, Kennedy Part, Beverly Woods, Morgan Park (west of I-57), West Beverly, Beverly, East Beverly
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
98% |
64% |
28% |
5% |
1% |
Ward 9 is a natural Ward, given the boundaries of the city limits. I kept it almost exactly the same, adding only a precinct or two for population equality. The boundaries are dictated by Beverly Drive in the north and I-57 in the south. In an earlier version of my map when I wasn't sure whether I would be able to draw enough Black majority wards, I tried to make this Ward majority African American. By crossing I-57 and taking in the entirety of Morgan Park and Washington Heights, and in return giving up East Beverly, Beverly, and West Beverly, you can make a Ward with a slight African American majority. I would probably have done this if African Americans would otherwise have been underrepresented, but this turned out to be unnecessary.
Ward 9
Altman Gardens, Riverdale, Golden Gate, Eden Green, West Pullman, Roseland (almost all)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
48% |
1% |
93% |
4% |
0% |
Wards 9 and 34 cover basically the same collective area as they do currently, covering the area between Wards 10 and 19. But I changed the way they divide that area from the current east-west split to a north-south split. The reason for adopting a north-south split is that an east-west split does not follow neighborhood lines, but a north-south split can follow the neighborhood lines dividing Roseland/West Pullman from Morgan Park/Fernwood/Rosemoor.
Roseland and West Pullman are fairly large neighborhoods, and their populations dominate this Ward. All of Roseland is included except for the parts that stick north of 107th street (excluded for population purposes. Overall, 48% of the population comes from the current Ward 9, while 52% comes from the current Ward 34.
Ward 34
Rosemoor, Fernwood, Longwood Manor, Washington Heights, Morgan Park (the part east of I-57), West Chesterfield, Burnside (part - west of Cottage Grove Ave.)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
34% |
0% |
97% |
1% |
0% |
34% of the people in the new Ward 34 come from the old Ward 34. Another 33% of the people come from the old Ward 9, so it's possible that Anthony Beale and Carrie Austin could switch wards, depending upon where they live. Both incumbents (or a challenger) could probably represent either Ward.
Ward 8
South Chicago (all except the more heavily Hispanic precincts), Calumet Heights, Pill Hill, Stony Park Island, Marynook, Burnside (part - east of Cottage Grove Ave.)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
51% |
1% |
94% |
3% |
0% |
And now we come to the first Ward that had to be entirely removed due to population loss - Ward 7. I merged Ward 7 with Ward 8 to create a ward in which 51% of the constituents come from the old Ward 8, while 46% come from the old Ward 7. This sets up a fair fight primary between Sandi Jackson and Michlle A. Harris for this new Ward. Harris is almost sure to run here (the next best alternative for her is District 6, where only 23% of the people are her old constituents). Jackson could alternatively run in Ward 5, but probably at a disadvantage, as the new Ward 5 is only 35% made up of Jackson's old constituents).
Turning to geography, this district is dominated by South Chicago and Calumet heights, and also includes small neighboring neighborhoods.
Ward 5
South Shore, Jackson Park Heights, East Hyde Park
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
46% |
8% |
86% |
3% |
2% |
East Hyde Park and South Shore combine to form just about the perfect population for a ward. While I didn't want to unnecessarily crack Hyde Park itself, I did want to be sure that the separate (but obviously related) neighborhoods of Hyde Park and East Hyde Park were in different Wards. If you draw a Ward which has both Hyde Park and East Hyde Park, that ward will only have a very small African American Majority, and so you will end up with one Ward which is about 55% black surrounded by a bunch of Wards which are about 95% black.
Ward 6
Grand Crossing, Avalon Park, Chatham, East Chatham, Park Manor (except for the part west of I-94)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
51% |
1% |
97% |
1% |
0% |
This new Ward 6 is pretty close to a perfect square. It also happens to be a heavily African American square which is increasingly trending towards Maverick Republicans. In 2008, John McCain won 189 votes here, while Barack Obama mustered only 30,308 votes. This is widely believed to be good news for John McCain.
Ward 21
Brainerd, Princeton Park, West Chatham, Winnecona Parkway, Gresham (most)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
74% |
0% |
98% |
1% |
0% |
We now come to another heavily African American square shaped Ward, this time on the other side of I-94. This new Ward 21 is pretty close to a perfect square. John McCain showed the consistency of his strong support in this part of Chicago by winning precisely 189 votes here - the exact same as in Ward 6. Barack Obama, by contrast, struggled to win just 30,715 votes. This is good news for John McCain.
On the communities of interest front, given the way I drew the other wards, I had to split Gresham. This was unfortunate, because Gresham is just about the right population for a ward. Someone else might try drawing a map with a single Gresham district.
Ward 18
Scottsdale (part), Ashburn (part), Marquette Park (part), Parkview, Marycrest, Wrightwood, Beverly View, Chicago Lawn (2 precincts)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
68% |
9% |
62% |
27% |
0% |
As we arrive in Ward 18, we momentarily leave the squarish heavily African American wards (but don't worry, we'll be back before you know it!). The shape of Ward 18 is not squarish because it runs along the border area between heavily African American and heavily Hispanic neighborhoods. In terms of keeping neighborhoods together, this Ward is therefore one of the more ugly wards - it splits three neighborhoods with Ward 13 in the name of keeping the African American population up and the Hispanic population down in Ward 18, and the Hispanic population up and the African American population down in Ward 13.
Ward 15
West Englewood, Back of the Yard (part), Chicago Lawn (part) Gage Park (part) Gresham (west of Ashland Ave)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
36% |
1% |
89% |
10% |
0% |
Ward 15 may not be squarish, but it is vaguely rectangular, and that's something. It is also heavily African American, and, like the squarish districts, becoming more and more receptive to Republicans who buck the party line. John McCain slightly underperformed here in comparison to wards 6 and 21, winning only 165 votes (an under-performance of 4 votes). But Barack Obama underperformed by even more (an under-performance of about 3,000 votes), winning the support of a mere 27,464 voters.
Ward 15 is based in West Englewood, which provides the bulk of the ward's population. After that picks up leftovers from other wards to fill population. In the north, it traces along the line dividing African American and Hispanic neighborhoods, which means that it takes in small portions of Back of the Yard, Chicago Lawn, and Gage Park. In the south, it includes African American parts of Marquette Park that Ward 18 did not have sufficient population to include as well as the part of Gresham which lies to the west of Ashland Avenue.
(Note - although only 36% of the people here come from the old Ward 15, that's actually a reasonable plurality - the next ward on the list has only 22%. This is a common pattern among most of the wards with sub-50% overlaps with old wards. While the incumbent might well be vulnerable to a strong challenge, it is clearly that incumbent's Ward at least more than any other Ward)
Ward 17
Englewood, Gresham (part), Park Manor (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
42% |
0% |
97% |
1% |
0% |
We are back to the heavily African American square shaped Wards! You know, the ones which are increasingly trending towards Maverick Republicans. True, this Ward may have voted 99.4% for Barack Obama, about as well as he did anywhere. But look at the turnout. John McCain won 104 votes here, an under-performance of 61 votes compared to Ward 15. But Barack Obama won just 26,376 votes here, an under-performance of 1,088 votes compared to Ward 15.
It's getting better all the time
Better, better, better.
It's getting better all the time
Better (for John McCain).
Geographically, this is essentially an Englewood Ward. Englewood is just a bit too small for a ward all on its own, so it also includes the small bit of Park Manor to the West of I-94 and a teeny bit of Gresham.
Ward 17
Hyde Park, Woodlawn, West Woodlawn, Parkway Gardens, Washington Park (most), possibly a few people from Park Manor
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
53% |
20% |
68% |
3% |
6% |
Ward 20 is another pretty squarish district, but it is not as heavily African American as Wards 6, 21, and 17. The reason for this is that it contains Hyde Park and the University of Chicago. John McCain did very well here in 2008, even compared to Ward 17 (where he was already over-performing). McCain won 578 votes in Ward 20 - 435% more than he got in Ward 17. Barack Obama, meanwhile, got 2,848 fewer votes in Ward 20 than he got in Ward 17.
In a 20.5% White, 67.6% Black Ward such as this, the fact that John McCain could win 2.4% of the vote even in the Democratic wave year of 2008 must be taken as a sign of strong Republican support not only among African Americans, but also among University students, professors, and Richard Posner. This is widely believed to be superb news for John McCain, and this Republican trend may continue in 2012 if Republicans nominate a maverick Intellectual Conservative Historian such as Newt Gingrich who can appeal to the University of Chicago intellectual vote.
Ward 4
Back of the Yards (part) Canaryville, Fuller Park, The Robert Taylor Homes, Bronzeville (Part), Kenwood, A wee little bit of Washington Park, possibly a few precincts of East Hyde Park
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
36% |
17% |
68% |
9% |
3% |
As we move north into Ward 4, we are once again confronted with the reality of South Side population loss. Ward 3 and Ward 4 are combined into a new Ward 4. 36% of the people in the new Ward 4 come from the old Ward 4, while 32% come from the old Ward 3. This sets up a reasonably fair fight Pat Dowell vs. Will Burns primary. Neither Dowell nor Burns has anywhere better to run (unless perhaps Bob Fioretti does not run in the new Ward 2), as both of their former constituents end up fairly scattered among multiple other Wards.
The lines of this ward are messy in the west where it borders Hispanic majority Ward 12 and Asian plurality Ward 11. I drew the lines separating these wards on the basis of race rather than neighborhood lines, particularly in order to make Ward 11 have a strong Asian plurality. That dictated the borders of surrounding wards. I Also put Kenwood (which has some fairly white precincts) in Ward 4 rather than Ward 2 in order to keep the African American population in Ward 2 relatively high. All of this makes Ward 4 less compact than some of the other South Side districts, but all things considered it's not too bad.
Ward 2
Bronzeville (most), North Kenwood, Oakland, Ida B. Wells/Darrow Homes, Groveland Park, Lake Meadows, The Gap, Prairie Shores, South Commons, Stateway Gardens, Dearborn Homes, Ickes Prairie Homes, South Loop (most), Prairie District, Dearborn Park, Printers Row
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
43% |
24% |
59% |
4% |
10% |
Ward 2 is the last of the Predominantly African American South Side districts. For the most part, it simply heads north between the border of Ward 11 and Lake Michigan. Ward 2 includes some Chicago cultural icons like the Field Museum, Soldier Field, and the southern part of Grant Park. The current incumbent of Ward 2 is Bob Fioretti, who is white. The question is, would he run in this more heavily African American ward, or would he try and jump north into Ward 42? If he moved north, that could make a chain reaction to save an African American incumbent further south (in Ward 3 or 4, for example).
In any case, it's time for the (Predominantly) Hispanic Luis Gutiérrez Southern Earmuff Wards.
The (Predominantly) Hispanic Luis Gutiérrez Southern Earmuff Wards
Ward 23
Garfield Ridge, Clearing, Chrysler Village, Vittum Park, LeClaire Courts
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
79% |
55% |
4% |
40% |
1% |
The first of the "(Predominantly) Hispanic Luis Gutiérrez Southern Earmuff Wards" is not Hispanic majority and does not overlap at all with Luis Gutiérrez's congressional district. As you can see, these thematic groups are not an exact science.
Like Ward 19, this is a ward that just makes sense given the shape of the city limits. Garfield Ridge and Clearing are a peninsula jutting out to the west, and form the natural basis for a ward. This ward is 40% Hispanic as it is, and is surrounded by 76%, 83%, and 85% Hispanic wards. It would obviously be possible to make Ward 23 majority (or super-majority) Hispanic, albeit at the cost of some ugly district lines. I would probably draw those ugly lines if it were necessary to avoid Hispanics (or, at any rate, Hispanic Wards) being underrepresented. But that's not necessary, so we have clean ward lines here. As it is, this district is likely to approach majority Hispanic status on its own over the course of the decade.
Ward 13
Scottsdale (part), Ashburn (part), West Lawn (almost all), Marquette Park (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
70% |
15% |
8% |
76% |
1% |
This ward totally violates my goal of avoiding splitting neighborhoods - it is made of parts of 4 neighborhoods and does not continue the entirety of a single neighborhood. This is because on the south it trades territory based on race with African American Wards, while on the north it doesn't have enough population to take in all of West Lawn. And, as we will see, District 16 will need that part of West lawn to even be contiguous.
Ward 14
Whatever precincts Ed Burke Wants - Archer Heights, Sleepy Hollow, West Elsdon (part), Gage Park (part) Brighton Park (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
86% |
10% |
2% |
85% |
2% |
Before we get to Ward 16, let's look at Ward 14. Ward 14 is the real reason why Ward 16 is screwed up. Ward 14, is, of course, Ed Burke's ward, and according to the contest rules we can't mess with his Ward. There's an 86% overlap between the old Ward 14 and the new Ward 14. The changes that I made were very limited - I equalized population and cut out a few precincts in the south/east of the Ward in order to make sure that Ward 16 could be contiguous. Of the precincts that I cut out, I made sure that they were among the most heavily Hispanic in the Ward, and I added precincts with a relatively higher white population (mostly from the old Ward 23). I assume Burke will be happy with this.
The lines of this district are drawn without regard to anything other than what is good for Ed Burke, and that has ripple effects on neighboring wards (especially Ward 16).
Ward 16
A potpourri of unloved, abandoned, orphaned precincts
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
86% |
10% |
2% |
85% |
2% |
Ward 16 is the reject Ward of this map. It is not compact looking, it does not follow neighborhood lines, it doesn't really have an incumbent, it consists of precincts that other wards didn't want (because they were too Hispanic for the African American wards and because Ed Burke didn't want them), and it is barely even contiguous. If trash collection continues to be done on the ward level in Chicago, Ward 16 will not be popular with garbage men either.
The pre-redistricting Ward 16 was 56% Black and 41% Hispanic. Given African American population loss and Hispanic population gain, that makes it an obvious candidate to turn into a Hispanic majority district. Only 20% of the Ward overlaps with the old Ward 16, and the part that does overlap is heavily Hispanic (not African American, which presumably is Joann Thompson's political base). All of that means that Joann Thompson would probably be out of luck if she were to run here. Unfortunately for her, she is probably out of luck anywhere else as well. Her best bet is probably to run an uphill battle in the new Ward 17, where 27% of the people come from her old Ward 16.
Ward 12
Back of the Yards (part), Brighton Park (part), Gage Park (part), McKinley Park, Bridgeport (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
44% |
8% |
5% |
82% |
5% |
Ward 12 is another overwhelmingly Hispanic ward. Although Ward 12 is fairly compact, its boundaries are determined more by race than by neighborhood boundaries. Its borders with 2 African American Wards and the Asian plurality 11th follow racial lines and the other rest of the district can only expand enough (and no more) to reach population equality. That expansion does not neatly fit neighborhood lines.
Oh, how I yearn for the days of the squarish districts following neighborhood lines in the racially homogeneous south side!
Ward 11
Chinatown + A veritable salmagundi of precincts selected on the basis of their Asian population percentage, including much of Bridgeport and select precincts in University Village and the Illinois Medical District including University of Illinois Chicago and Rush University
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
64% |
30% |
7% |
18% |
44% |
Ward 11 is not a Hispanic district, but it doesn't fit anywhere else, so I am putting it in this section. I drew it by attempting to maximize the Asian population percentage as much as reasonably possible without drawing something too diffuse. In an earlier version of this district, I didn't have the same northern University arm, and achieved close to the same Asian population percentage. That northern arm is actually there in the final version at least as much to help increase the African American population in Ward 2 (and by extension, 4) by forcing it less far north into the Loop than it would otherwise be pushed.
The result is probably the most erosely shaped district this side of the 16th Ward. I think it's shaped sort of like Pac Man. Assuming that James Balcer runs in this Ward, he is probably a pretty good bet for re-election, even given the increase of the Asian population percentage. But if for some reason he is unresponsive to the concerns of Asian Americans, he could have some trouble.
Ward 25
University Village/Little Italy (part), Illinois Medical District (part), Pilsen, Heart of Chicago, Heart of Italy, Brighton Park (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
71% |
15% |
11% |
68% |
4% |
If Ward 11 is shaped like Pac Man, Pac Man is eating Ward 25. It includes everything that Ward 11 is eating up until Western Avenue. Part of Brighton Park is awkwardly thrown in for population equality.
Ward 22
Little Village (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
92% |
2% |
1% |
96% |
0% |
Next up is Ward 22, a very heavily Hispanic Little Village ward. This ward is entirely contained within Little Village, but it can't take the whole of the neighborhood without breaching population equality.
The (Predominantly) African American Danny Davis West Side Wards
Ward 24
Little Village (part), Lawndale (part), Douglas Park (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
50% |
4% |
66% |
29% |
0% |
Remember the territory left over from Little Village that is not in Ward 14? Well, that territory happens to contain
Cook County Jail. The precinct that contains Cook County Jail has 11,000 people (fully 1/5 the population needed for a ward), only 200 of whom voted in 2008. Because about 2/3 of those 11,000 people are African American, it seems to me that those people ought to be, if possible, in an African American majority ward. Currently the prisoners are in the Hispanic majority Ward 12.
In any case, the new Ward 24 combines the western part of Lawndale with the Cook County Jail. Unfortunately it has to cut through a few overwhelmingly Hispanic precincts to get there, but all the Hispanic Wards in the southern earmuff already have enough population in any case. Overall, the ward is 66% African American. It is also 66% African American if you don't count the prison population.
Ward 28
Douglas Park (part), Lawndale (part), Homan Square, Fifth City, East Garfield Park, West Garfield Park, Tri-Taylor, some borderline precincts
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
41% |
4% |
86% |
8% |
2% |
Both Wards 24 and 28 could be made slightly more compact and one could avoid splitting Douglas Park by drawing Ward 24 straight north of the Cook County Jail to include all of Douglas Park and Homan Square, rather than branching it into the western part of Lawndale. I didn't do that because it would have lowered the African American population in Ward 24 to the point where it might not be African American majority by the end of the decade (especially if one doesn't count the prisoners). Meanwhile, Ward 28 would have been 95% black. With this arrangement, Ward 28 is 86%.
Ward 29
South Austin (most), The Island, Lawndale (the far western panhandle bit)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
44% |
2% |
94% |
3% |
0% |
This is a compact squarish African American ward. It includes most of South Austin, plus the panhandle of Lawndale. For the curious, John McCain won 245 votes here, which is some pretty good news for him. Barack Obama got a piddling 26,708 votes (a pathetic 98.9%).
Ward 37
Galewood (part), North Austin, South Austin (part), West Humboldt Park (all but the most Hispanic precincts)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
64% |
5% |
73% |
20% |
1% |
Ward 37 is centered around North Austin, which forms a bit more than half of the population of the Ward. The northern part of Ward 37 traces the border with heavily Hispanic areas (roughly delineated by Grand Avenue).
Ward 27
Humboldt Park (the African American part), West Town, Near West Side, Greektown
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
68% |
35% |
39% |
20% |
4% |
Ward 27 is the last of the African American Danny Davis West Side Wards. When I first drew this ward, I struggled, but managed, to draw a barely 50% African American ward following roughly shape of the current Ward 27, reaching into Old Town. This district was ugly, and ignored neighborhood lines. However, I then noticed that I had already drawn 16 districts with strong African American majorities - the number of districts that African Americans are "entitled to" proportionally. In addition, the current Ward 27 only has a 46% African American majority. For these two reasons, I didn't feel that it was necessary to deliberately gerrymander an additional African American majority district - particularly given that a compact African American plurality Ward which does not violate neighborhood boundaries easily emerges. And that's exactly what this is.
Walter Burnett, Jr., or another African American, could be elected here. He might even be able to get elected here solely on the strength of the African American vote. But over the next decade, it will be in the interest of whoever is Alderman here to pay attention not just to the concerns of African Americans, but also to the concerns of voters of other races.
The (Predominantly) Hispanic Luis Gutiérrez Northern Earmuff Wards
Ward 7
Montclare, Belmont Central, Galewood (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
0% |
26% |
4% |
66% |
3% |
Ward 7 is removed from the South Side and appears here as a new compact Hispanic Ward. A plurality of this new ward (42%) comes from the old Ward 36. However, Nicholas Sposato would presumably run in the white majority new Ward 36, leaving this as an open seat.
Ward 38
Portage Park (south Irving Park road), Cragin (most)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
51% |
37% |
2% |
57% |
3% |
Ward 38 is reconfigured into a Hispanic majority ward. It's only a majority, not a super-majority, because there are just not enough Hispanics in the area to make another super-majority district. Ward 38 most of portage park (but not all, because the area north of Irving Park road is not Hispanic enough) and pretty much all of Cragin with the exception of the part south of Fullerton Ave. Timothy Cullerton may well be able to win even in this more Hispanic ward, but it will be in the interest of whoever is Alderman here to cater to the needs of Hispanic residents.
Ward 31
Hanson Park, Cragin (part), Kelvin Park, Killbourn Park, South Irving Park, The Villa, Old Irving Park (most), Hermosa (a border precinct or two)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
43% |
26% |
3% |
67% |
3% |
Ward 31 is not the ideal example of compactness, but it does create another super-majority Hispanic seat while doing reasonably well at avoiding breaking up neighborhoods. The ward includes Hanson Park and the most heavily Hispanic (southern) parts of Cragin. Those are connected via Kelvin Park to whiter areas in the north around Old Irving Park, to reach a Hispanic super-majority without touching Belmont Gardens and more than perhaps a precinct or two of Hermosa.
Ward 26
Humboldt Park (except the African American part), West Humboldt Park, Logan Square (part) Hermosa (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
60% |
19% |
12% |
66% |
1% |
As I mentioned earlier, I originally divided Logan Square into two Wards and left some surrounding Hispanic areas in a single district. This resulted in the two Logan Square districts having Hispanic majorities, but not necessarily strong enough majorities to be genuine Hispanic districts, along with another overly packed Hispanic district. Instead of allowing this, I basically took Logan Square, Humboldt Park, Hermosa, and Belmont Gardens and made 3 horizontal wards one on top of the other. This deliberately breaks up Logan Square more than is necessary, but results in 3 Hispanic supermajority districts. This is the first of those 3 districts.
Ward 35
Logan Square (part), Palmer Square, Hermosa (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
30% |
26% |
6% |
66% |
2% |
This is the second of the 3 Logan Square area Hispanic super-majority districts.
Ward 30
Logan Square (part), Belmont Gardens, Avondale (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
15% |
27% |
3% |
66% |
2% |
This is the third of the 3 Logan Square area Hispanic super-majority districts. The current Ward 30 is probably the most gerrymandered ward in Chicago. It is like a long, wavy strand of spaghetti with two barbells on either end. I would bet that pretty much any map that tries to draw sensible wards will have a hard time preserving Ward 30. I certainly did - this new Ward 30 only has a 15% overlap with the old Ward 30. The old Ward 30 is broken up between 6 separate wards, each of which have about 20% of the old Ward or less. I have absolutely no idea where Ariel Reboyras would actually run. According to his
website, "Ward 30 is located in the Irving Park neighborhood." Frankly, I am sort of skeptical about that, but maybe that means he would rather run in a possible primary in Ward 31 (which has 22% of his old constituents).
Ward 33
Richard Mell's current Ward 33 plus 1 additional precinct of Avondale
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
98% |
31% |
4% |
54% |
8% |
Ward 33 is Richard Mell's ward. It is the second of the two wards which, according to the contest rules, we are not allowed to mess with. In fact, this Ward 33 is almost exactly the same as the old Ward 33. The only difference is that I added a single additional precinct in Avondale to achieve population equality.
Ward 39
Mayfair, North Mayfair, River's Edge, Sauganash Woods, Brynford Park, Albany Park (part), Irving Park (part), Old Irving Park (part), Hollywood Park (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
85% |
39% |
4% |
37% |
17% |
Ward 39 is one last Hispanic influence ward. It very nearly has a Hispanic plurality. It is hemmed in on the south by Hispanic districts and on the east by Ward 33. Other than the borders with those Wards, Ward 39 breaks up only one neighborhood (Hollywood Park). This ward also has a significant 17% Asian population.
The (Predominantly) White North Side Wards
Ward 42
The Loop, South Loop (part), West Loop Gate, Fultron River District, River West, River North, Near North (part), Near East Side, Magnificent Mile
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
70% |
68% |
8% |
6% |
15% |
The first of "The (Predominantly) White North Side Wards" is not really a North Side ward at all, but rather a Loop ward. If Brendan Reilly decides to run here, he is most likely to win. This Ward 42 is made up 70% of the old Ward 42. However, as I mentioned earlier, one can imagine that Bob Fioretti might prefer to run here, rather than the new Ward 2. 29% of the new Ward 42 comes from the old Ward 2, so if both Fieretti and Reilly ran here, Reilly would probably have the advantage.
Ward 3
Streeterville, Gold Coast, Near North (part), Cabrini Green
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
0% |
75% |
8% |
5% |
10% |
But, Reilly has a choice. The new Ward 3 is just as much "his district" as is the new Ward 42. Ward 42 had a lot of population growth, and is essentially split into two Wards. 76% of the new Ward 3 is from the old Ward 42.
Ward 1
Goose Island, Noble Square, East Ukranian Village, Ukranian Village, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Lathrop Homes (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
57% |
70% |
5% |
18% |
5% |
The old Ward 1, despite being a white majority ward, is represented by a Puerto Rican Hispanic Alderman, Proco Joe Moreno. However, Ward 1 becomes even whiter as it and Ward 32 are de-gerrymandered and more compact. Clearly, Moreno must not be reliant exclusively on Hispanic votes, or he would not be Alderman now. So he might well be able to win here if he runs. But it's certainly conceivable that he might prefer to try his luck in one of the heavily Hispanic wards just to the west.
Ward 43
Old Town, Old Town Tirangle, Lincoln Park, Ranch Triangle, Sheffield Neighbors, Wrightwood Neighbors, West De Paul (part, I think???)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
58% |
79% |
10% |
5% |
4% |
This ward continues the move north along Lake Michigan, picking up assorted small (but densely populated) neighborhoods.
Ward 44
East Lakeview, Park West, 1 precinct of Buena Park
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
52% |
79% |
4% |
7% |
8% |
Ward 44 consists essentially of Lake View East and Park West, which collectively are about the perfect size for a ward.
Ward 32
Lakeview, Wrigleyville, Lathrop Homes (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
52% |
79% |
4% |
7% |
8% |
The old Ward 32 has a weird appendage dipping down into the middle of Ward 1, which doesn't make any sense that I can see in terms of communitites of interest. The new Ward 32 is altered and de-gerrymandered to become a Lakeview district - Lakeview is essentially perfect size for a single ward. It consists of the entirety of Lakeview proper and Wrigleyville (which is an island in the middle of Lakeview), plus maybe a precinct or two split with Lathrop Homes.
This has just a 30% overlap with the previous Ward 32, so Scott Waguespack may not consider this to be "his ward." 54% of the new Ward 32, meanwhile, comes from the old Ward 44. Wards 1 and 43 are other possibilities for Waguespack.
Ward 46
Roscoe Village, North Center, Horner Park, South East Ravenswood, Graceland West, Buena Park (most), Uptown (part?)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
38% |
69% |
10% |
13% |
6% |
Ward 46 consists of everything else left south of Montrose Ave, plus a bit of lakeside Uptown to fill population. More of this ward actually comes from the old Ward 47 (46%) than from the old Ward 46 (38%).
Ward 47
Uptown (part), Sheridan Park, Ravenswood, Lincoln Square, Ravenswood Gardens, Budlong Woods
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
51% |
61% |
8% |
18% |
10% |
The Asian population in Ward 47 increases slightly to 10%, which should marginally help Ameya Pawar. As mentioned previously, a good chunk of the old 47th is in the new 46th, so Pawar could also potentially run there.
Ward 48
Edgewater Beach, Edgewater Glen, Magnolia Glen, Lakewood-Balmoral, Margate Park, Uptown (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
85% |
52% |
19% |
12% |
14% |
Another collection of lakefront white liberal neighborhoods. All of which is, of course, good news for John McCain. One problem - uptown is, I think, split 3 ways in the end. That is unfortunate, but it collectively had the right amount of population that Wards 46, 47, and 48 all needed for population equality.
Ward 49
Rogers Park (all but a precinct or two)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
83% |
39% |
26% |
24% |
6% |
Ward 49 practically draws itself. It's just Roger's Park, minus a border precinct or two which would have made the ward overpopulated if they were included.
Ward 40
West Rogers Park (east of Western Ave), Arcadia Terrace, Bowmanville, Andersonville, Edgewater
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
48% |
42% |
13% |
25% |
17% |
West Rogers Park is too big for one Ward, so I cut it in two along Western Ave. The eastern half goes along with remaining neighborhoods which surround Rosehill Cemetary. The white plurality decreases to 42% - this is now one of the most diverse districts in the city.
Ward 50
West Rogers Park (west of Western Ave), Peterson Park, Pulaski Park, Hollywood Park (part), Sauganash, Sauganash Woods
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
79% |
53% |
6% |
15% |
22% |
I originally played around with trying to create an Asian influence ward here. The maximum Asian population you can achieve in an equally populated ward around here is about 29%. The final version ends up at 22% Asian, which is not that much less.
Ward 45
Jefferson Park, Portage Park (part)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
71% |
66% |
1% |
24% |
7% |
Ward 45 traces the winding borders of Jefferson Park (with allowance for misshapen precincts) and adds the north section of Portage Park to fill population.
Ward 41
Forest Glen, Edgebrook, Wildwood, Old Edgebrook, Gladstone Park, Norwood Park East, Old Norwood Park, Union Ridge, Big Oaks, Edison Park, Norwood Park West
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
81% |
83% |
0% |
11% |
5% |
Ward 41 goes around Jefferson Park (Ward 45) and consists of a large number of smaller neighborhoods. This Ward voted only 55.7% for Barack Obama in 2008, meaning that it is possible that Ward 41 could elect a Republican. And you know what that means, don't you? That's right. That's good news for John McCain.
Ward 36
Oriole Park, O'Hare, Schorsch Forest View, Irving Woods, Belmont Terrace, Belmont Heights, Dunning, Schorsch Village, Portage Park (2 precincts)
Overlap with the old Ward |
White |
AfAm |
Hispanic |
Asian |
57% |
75% |
1% |
17% |
5% |
Ward 36 includes everything that's left over - Chicago O'Hare International Airport and miscellaneous nearby neighborhoods which for some reason or other are within the Chicago City Limits (while other areas nearby are not).
And that's the end!