Iowa's current leader, according to PPP (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)
Public Policy Polling. 12/26-12/27. Likely GOP Caucus voters. MoE 4.1% (Last week in parentheses)
Ron Paul: 24 (23)
Mitt Romney: 20 (20)
Newt Gingrich: 13 (14)
Michele Bachmann: 11 (10)
Rick Perry: 10 (10)
Rick Santorum: 10 (10)
Jon Huntsman: 4 (4)
Buddy Roemer: 2 (--)
The big story here is, essentially, the horse-race hasn't changed in PPP's weekly tracking poll in the Hawkeye State. Ron Paul inches up a point, while Newt Gingrich continues to whittle away his support, although what had been a sharp descent has levelled off considerably.
Where there was considerable movement this week, however, is in the favorabilities of the candidates. Nowhere is this more magnified than in the case of Newt Gingrich. Less than a month ago, when Gingrich was the unambiguous frontrunner of the GOP field, his favorabilities in Iowa were sitting at a gaudy +31 ratio (62/31). Behold the implosion: his fav/unfav in the most recent PPP tracker sat at a truly mediocre 37/54 spread. Only three weeks after being (by far) the most well-liked Republican, no one still remaining in the GOP field boasts a weaker fav/unfav spread than Gingrich (resident "moderate" Jon Huntsman comes the closest, sitting at 31/43).
Curiously, neither Ron Paul nor Mitt Romney have the best fav/unfav spread. Paul's isn't bad (53/40), while Romney's are actually pretty damned middling (44/47). The most well-liked Republican is running, as it happens, in a somewhat distant fifth place. It is Rick Santorum, who is graced with a 56/29 spread.
So why is Santorum still in the middle of the pack? Part of the answer, which is hard to ignore, may well be money. Romney and Paul have both outspent Santorum in Iowa exponentially, with both men well into seven figures while Santorum has barely cracked six figures.
Because of that, Santorum needs Iowa. A strong third for him would give him something he has not enjoyed to date in this GOP primary: the attention of the news media. To the incessant frustration of Paul-ites, their guy seems destined to be perpetually branded as a boutique candidate by the press. Thus, even an Iowa win will probably not change that assessment of Ron Paul by the political press. But if Santorum can sneak into the top tier, he may finally get his turn as the anti-Romney.
What is keeping Romney afloat, despite his wobbly favorabilities with his own base, is the fact that the anti-Romney vote simply refuses to stay consolidated in one place. Consider: the three candidates that have taken their turns as the "anti-Romney" at or near the front of the field combine in this tracking poll for 34 percent of the vote. That would make for a clear leader in this divided field. However, the problem is that segment of the electorate is evenly divided among those three candidates (Gingrich, Bachmann, Perry).
For Romney to be denied the nomination, people need to start dropping out, and fast. The saving grace for the former Massachusetts governor is the fact that it, for the time being, seems unlikely that anyone will bail that fast. Perhaps if one of the big spenders winds up getting crushed next week (Perry is a possible suspect here), that may change. But, for now, it is a longshot.
What has become less of a longshot is the prospects of a Romney win in Iowa. One of the truly interesting factoids within the data of this Iowa poll is that Romney is now winning the Fox News primary. He now leads with Republican voters, albeit narrowly.
And therein lies the dilemma for Ron Paul. His path to victory is paved by younger voters and non-Republicans heading out in six nights and casting their vote for him. Neither of those groups are "regulars" in a GOP caucus in Iowa. But PPP now sees 24 percent of the potential electorate being made up of Democrats and independents. If a quarter of the attendees aren't Republicans, it is hard not to consider Ron Paul the favorite, because those voters aren't showing up to support Romney. Indeed, Ron Paul leads Romney with that non-GOP group by a better than 3-to-1 clip.
Paul's victory could be paved by Democrats. Nearly one-in-six potential caucus goers were at a Democratic caucus in 2008, and they love Ron Paul (65 percent favorability). Every other GOP contender is at a net negative favorability with that group. And, of course, Democrats have no other reason to turn out next week, since the president has the Democratic nomination on lock.
The next few days should bring a load of polls in Iowa (including another one from PPP, which will be conducted over the weekend). It will be interesting to see if they will echo Paul's lead, and whether they will also essentially narrow the field down to Paul and Romney in the way that PPP's tracker has now effectively done. Whether Santorum emerges at the head of that second-tier is also worth keeping one eye on.
Last but not least, it will be worth watching if other polls confirm that Newt Gingrich has really receded back into the pack. Given his incredible shrinking bus tour of Iowa just launched, diminished expectations seem more than a little justified.