Just in time for the Iowa caucuses, we return to the fifth or sixth incarnation of "Mitt Romney as the inevitable nominee of the Republican Party for president."
Thursday had to be the best polling day for Mittens in a long time. He took his first lead in the Gallup daily tracking poll of the GOP primary, and either tied or led three different polls out of Iowa. Add to that his best general election look in months (albeit from the House of Ras), and it all added up to a damned good day for the former Massachusetts governor.
First, let's take a look at those GOP primary numbers:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 27, Gingrich 23, Paul 11, Perry 8, Bachmann 5, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2
IOWA (American Research Group): Romney 22, Gingrich 17, Paul 16, Santorum 11, Perry 9, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 6, Roemer 1
IOWA (Insider Advantage): Gingrich 17, Paul 17, Romney 17, Santorum 13, Bachmann 12, Perry 11, Huntsman 3
IOWA (Rasmussen): Romney 23, Paul 22, Santorum 16, Gingrich 13, Perry 13, Bachmann 5, Huntsman 3
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Romney 36, Paul 21, Gingrich 13, Huntsman 12, Bachmann 7, Perry 3, Roemer 3, Santorum 3
Of the three Iowa polls, I actually find Rasmussen to be the most credible of the three. I don't buy what Insider Advantage is selling, which is no one breaking 20 percent in what is essentially a six-way tie. Nor do I buy ARG (!) and their scenario of Romney running away from the field a bit. Plus, virtually no one has Ron Paul with such a small share of the vote in some time.
The Santorum "surge" (I felt dirty just typing that) is present in the Rasmussen Iowa poll, but it also is most clearly not evident in PPP's poll in New Hampshire. There, Santorum is battling with Buddy Roemer for last place. One could suspect that he'd catch fire a tiny bit with a big finish in Iowa. Indeed, I speculated on that scenario last night. In writing up this poll in the Granite State, however, Tom Jensen reminded us that winning Iowa (which is a longshot for Santorum) did not do a whole lot for Mike Huckabee's prospects in New Hampshire, where he finished a very distant third with 11 percent of the vote.
On the general election front, there is only one entry, but it adds to Romney's decent day of data:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (45-39)
Yes, yes ... it is Rasmussen. Let's stipulate that the poll comes from a source that, to be charitable, has shown a rooting interest in their past. It is still the biggest lead any pollster has ever claimed for Mitt Romney when paired with Barack Obama.
It will be interesting to see if, when the inevitable wave of national polls come out either at the end of this week or the start of next week, other pollsters see movement in Romney's direction. My guess is that he will see some movement in his direction, since the GOP side of the race is sucking up all of the oxygen in the political universe. Will anyone else have him up six points, though? Call me a skeptic.
Of course, if past is prologue, none of the trends and tendencies we saw on Thursday will be the same on Friday. So, expect a Ron Paul revolution in the next round of polling, or tales of the Gingrich that stole Iowa. Why not? The truly unconventional outcome would be if Friday's polling actually held similarities to Thursday's.