Normally, the week between the year-end holidays is so sparse on political news that there is virtually no need for a Weekend Digest (indeed, I can't remember the last time one has been necessary during the New Year's weekend).
But, hey: Iowa is next week. Redistricting is humming along. And, lest anyone needs the reminder: a leap year starts tomorrow. And we all know what that means.
The campaign trail knows no holidays. Which is why, beneath the fold, you will find the "2011 in the rear view" edition of the Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: It should come as a surprise to absolutely no one who follows elective politics that this week's data had three distinct characteristics: (a) it looked, virtually without exception, at the GOP primary, (b) it was focused almost exclusively on Iowa and New Hampshire, and (c) there wasn't a heck of a lot of it.
With the caucuses on deck this Tuesday, Iowa was the focal point this week, with seven different looks at the Hawkeye State. Taken as a whole, the two dominant themes were the continued slide of Newt Gingrich into 2012 campaign irrelevance and the increasingly probability that Mitt Romney can manage an Iowa caucus win without building very much on the 20-25 percent support he has had throughout the cycle.
A possible emerging story could be the sixth or seventh incarnation of an anti-Romney, though pollsters differ on who "Anti-Mitt 7.0" will be. The early consensus seemed to be Rick Santorum. Without question, he showed the most forward movement in Iowa this week. But don't ignore the possibility of Rick Perry getting a "better than expected" performance on Tuesday at the caucuses. The NBC/Marist poll at the close of the week had an interesting McNugget of data buried in the polling memo: Rick Perry was the second choice of one-in-five prospective caucus-goers. Only Mitt Romney had comparable support as the "next best" choice.
Santorum's movement, however, is hard to ignore. But the problem for the next anti-Romney is going to be the fact that each of the previous anti-Romney's have retained some reservoir of support. Therefore, there is limited upward mobility for Santorum, because a critical mass of voters are staying in the Gingrich/Bachmann/Perry camps. To put it simply: unless some candidates start heading for the exits in the GOP primary, Mitt Romney still remains in the driver's seat.
UPDATE: Since the Digest was posted at Daily Kos Elections, the much anticipated new Iowa poll by Selzer for the Des Moines Register was released. It went Romney #1, Paul #2, and Santorum #3, but there was a big caveat. Check the link for full details, courtesy of our own DemFromCT.
NATIONAL (APCO Insight): Romney 30, Gingrich 25, Paul 17, Bachmann 10, Perry 9, Santorum 5, Huntsman 4
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 26, Gingrich 24, Paul 11, Perry 7, Bachmann 5, Santorum 5, Huntsman 2
FLORIDA (Tel Opinion Research): Romney 27, Gingrich 26, Paul 5, Bachmann 4, Perry 4, Huntsman 1, Santorum 1
IOWA (American Research Group): Romney 22, Gingrich 17, Paul 16, Santorum 11, Perry 9, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 6, Roemer 1
IOWA (CNN/Time): Romney 25, Paul 22, Santorum 16, Gingrich 14, Perry 11, Bachmann 9, Huntsman 1
IOWA (Insider Advantage): Gingrich 17, Paul 17, Romney 17, Santorum 13, Bachmann 12, Perry 11, Huntsman 3
IOWA (NBC/Marist): Romney 23, Paul 21, Santorum 15, Perry 14, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 6, Huntsman 2
IOWA (PPP Tracking): Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11, Perry 10, Santorum 10, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2
IOWA (Rasmussen): Romney 23, Paul 22, Santorum 16, Gingrich 13, Perry 13, Bachmann 5, Huntsman 3
IOWA (We Ask America): Romney 24, Santorum 17, Paul 14, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 12, Perry 10, Huntsman 4
NEW HAMPSHIRE (CNN/Time): Romney 44, Paul 17, Gingrich 16, Huntsman 9, Santorum 4, Bachmann 3, Perry 2
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Romney 36, Paul 21, Gingrich 13, Huntsman 12, Bachmann 7, Perry 3, Roemer 3, Santorum 3
NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH/Boston Globe): Romney 39, Gingrich 17, Paul 17, Huntsman 11, Santorum 3, Bachmann 2, Perry 1
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: Perhaps we should have expected it, but this has been the quietest "general election" polling week in all of 2011. With all eyes on the GOP primary in general, and Iowa in particular, few people are examining what Obama would do against the GOP field right now. After all, there is plenty of time for that.
The only pollster to even examine general election matchups was the House of Ras, and they did their damnedest to provide numerical support for the Romney electability meme.
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (45-39); Obama d. Gingrich (47-37)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: With all eyes on Iowa, it was a reasonably quiet week on the polling front outside of the Hawkeye State. No public polls were launched, but we did get a couple of potentially interesting sponsored polls that gave us some insight into two key races in November.
In Montana, a GOP poll of the top-tier showdown between Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg gave a predictable edge to the Republican challenger. According to McLaughlin and Associates, Rehberg led Tester by a 46-40 margin. The most recent poll in the race, conducted about a month ago and sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce, had Tester staked to a five-point lead.
McLaughlin had a busy holiday, quite clearly. One of their other clients, Pennsylvania Republican Tom Smith, released internal polling which gave him a lead over the relatively undistinguished field of Republicans vying to replace Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. Smith led with 22 percent, which put him ahead of former state Rep. Sam Rohrer (15 percent) and 2010 PA-12 candidate Tim Burns (11 percent).
Meanwhile, the GOP polling crew at Tel Opinion Research took a look at the GOP primary in Florida. The verdict? Rep. Connie Mack had a clear, but far from insurmountable, advantage. Mack had 39 percent of the vote. Which would seem incredibly weak, except that the collection of dwarves challenging him (which includes former Senate appointee George LeMieux) combine for just 12 percent. For those who excel at subtraction: yes, that means that about half of the field was undecided.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The banner headline this week, of course, was the retirement of veteran Nebraska Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson on Tuesday. Nelson's decision to retire was not without warning--the conservative Democrat had been very publicly weighing retirement for most of the second half of the year. It was nevertheless somewhat infuriating, given that the Nebraska Democratic Party (with the aid of the DSCC) had dumped six figures worth of support for Nelson already in 2011. Speculation on a Democratic replacement immediately locked in on former Senator Bob Kerrey, who declared that he would make a decision within two weeks. If Kerrey stands down, Democrats do not have an obvious first-tier challenger, since all those who might be considered legitimate threats to win (Scott Kleeb, Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler) have already denied interest in the race.
- Actually, I was wondering when former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson would try this tactic. Thompson sent out a campaign e-mail blasting Mark Neumann for going after now-Gov. Scott Walker during the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary in which Neumann fell to Walker. Walker, of course, is now a conservative darling in the Badger State, and Thompson is hoping to shore up his right-wing street cred by reminding people that Neumann was once in opposition to Walker. It's a pretty weak parry: Neumann, if anything, primaried Walker from the right. But clearly Thompson is concerned that he could get teabagged to death if he doesn't find some way to separate Neumann from the state's right flank.
- If a teabagger falls in the forest, and no one cares, does it make a sound? Not that anyone in Virginia didn't already know that it will be Kaine vs. Allen next November, but the puzzle got immeasurably clearer this week with the exit of Tim Donner from the GOP race. You are pretty justified if your response to that was "Who?" Donner was a self-funding businessman who had dropped around $250,000 into his own bid before coming to the realization that Allen was not going to be caught in the Republican primary. Primary polling has routinely had Allen with more than two-thirds of the GOP primary vote locked down.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Believe it or not, there actually was House polling this holiday week, and it was pretty darned good news for the Democrats. In UT-04, where Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson elected to run after the GOP legislature ginsu-ed his district into pieces, a new poll by Dan Jones and Associates gave Matheson respectable leads over all of his potential GOP rivals. Stephen Sandstrom came the closest for the red team, and still trailed by nine points (50-41). The balance of the GOP field (Carl Wimmer, Mia Love, and Jay Cobb) trailed by double digits. Of all the districts in the state, the 4th was the most amenable to Democrats. But this is Utah, so that is a relative term, to say the least. Of course, Matheson has made a career in the Beehive State of surviving in hostile territory, so this is nothing new.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Redistricting knows no holiday, and two more states drew considerably closer to finalizing their Congressional maps for the next decade. The commission in Washington state produced a map that has to be seen as a mild disappointment to Democrats. It took Jay Inslee's 1st district and turned it into a swing district (in return, Rick Larsen's 2nd district became considerably safer). The new 10th district, centered in Olympia, leans Democratic. The lean, however, is a somewhat fragile one, meaning that a well-funded Republican could have some pop there. Meanwhile, the court-selected maps in New Mexico are way less controversial. Though it was the map preferred by GOP Gov. Susana Martinez, the map is a pure status-quo effort. The partisan performances of the state's three districts changed by less than a percentage point.
- Redistricting, it would appear, also ended one incumbent's career in the House. That's not idle speculation, that comes straight from the politician's mouth. In a somewhat surprising move, Republican Rep. Steve Austria elected to retire rather than seek election in OH-10, where he was shoehorned into a district that was also occupied by fellow GOP incumbent Mike Turner. Austria explicitly blamed the GOP-penned gerrymander, saying he would not run against one of his fellow Republicans to stay in office.
- Meanwhile, in NJ-09, no such falling on the sword appears to be in the offing. Veteran Rep. Steve Rothman, whose district was shot out from under him when the state redistricting commission sided with the GOP, announced that he would seek to remain in Congress via a primary with fellow Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell. The numbers made this an obvious choice for Rothman--he barely had any constituents in the "fair fight" district that was allegedly created to generate a contest between Rothman and Republican Rep. Scott Garrett. The majority of his constituents landed in the 9th district, which also contained Pascrell's home turf.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Once again, it is a data-free week on the gubernatorial/state legislative front. One expects that to change after the first of the year, however.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- It looks like one of the more quirky states on the gubernatorial front may be ready to change its ways. Vermont has two characteristics about their gubernatorial elections that make them, shall we say, different. They elect their governors to two-year terms (only New Hampshire joins them on the short-term thing), and the legislature elects the governor if a candidate doesn't earn a majority. The Vermont lege is apparently considering an amendment to the state constitution to go to a standard plurality election, as well as a four-year term for their state executive.
- In case you were wondering about whether the whole "angry voter" meme is legitimate, blogger Joshua Spivak offered some pretty compelling evidence. In 2011, over six dozen officeholders lost their jobs via recall elections. Michigan had the itchiest trigger finger, with thirty recall efforts.
- Never too early to look ahead! There were actually candidate rumblings on the gubernatorial front for 2014 ... and 2015 ... during this week. The 2015 boomlet came from Crit Luallen in Kentucky, the former state auditor. Luallen had been oft-mentioned as a challenger to Sen. Mitch McConnell when his seat comes up in 2014, but she made clear in an interview that she'd prefer a run for governor, a seat that will surely be open in 2015 (Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear, before his November re-election, said his second term would also be his last). Meanwhile, in Rhode Island, we got a Democrat signalling an early decision not to run for governor. The Democrat was Lt. Gov.
Barbara Elizabeth Roberts, who cited her solid working relationship with Indie Gov. Lincoln Chafee as her reason for eschewing a bid. (Corrected from the comments. Do I get bonus points for her conflating her name with the governor of Oregon from two decades ago? That's like political nerd extra credit, isn't it?!)
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
Air balls a plenty, even during the holiday season. We get our first candidate family member making the cut, as well as our first air ball nominee flagged for pathetic whining.
Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA): I'll let our dear readers here at Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections discuss this one--who looks more pathetic in this story: Senator Brown for his sniveling whining about the media being out to get him, or the media member who nods, smiles, and offers affirmation?
Former Rep. Artur Davis (D? R? He Doesn't Even Know-AL): Seriously, Davis and Joe Walsh (R-IL) deserve their own lifetime achievement Air Ball for general assholery. The latest from Davis? Ben Nelson retired because the Democratic Party has steered too far to left in what is (his words here, not mine) "a center-right nation." Oh! Oh! And on the same day, Davis told The Fix that he would change parties, but that Republicans in his state haven't been hospitable to party switches (see: Griffith, Parker).
Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): The "newsletter" story simply won't die, because Paul keeps helping to resurrect it. The latest: Paul decrying so much focus on "8 or 10 sentences" out of the sizeable volume of content in his newsletters. What is going to be the natural reaction to his comment? Seeking out more examples, of course. As well as seeking out more examples from the rest of Paul's prolific portfolio. Stop helping yourself, Ron!
Matt Romney (R-Son of Mitt): I really only have one question for junior Mitt, who famously went birther this week: who repeats a self-described "dumb joke" to an audience?!