For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans have the trifecta. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.
I thought I'd finally do my own state here...
Previous Doubling Diaries: NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
Indiana gets 18 districts under a Doubled House.
Northwest
1
VAP: 51.5 White, 29.1 Black, 17 Hispanic
72.1 Obama
Open seat; Gary, Hammond and Munster. Opening for a black Democrat in the primary, but most of the area state legislators are in their 60s and 70s. Safe D
2
VAP: 83.6 W, 7.3 B, 6.7 H
55.7 Obama
Pete Visclosky (D-Merrillville) lives here; Valparaiso and Michigan City. Pete V. always manages to outperform Dem baselines, so we're probably stuck with his corrupt ass until something dislodges him. Safe D
3
VAP: 78.7 W, 10.7 B, 7.3 H
56.5 Obama
Open seat; South Bend/Mishawaka and Elkhart. Home district of Joe Donnelly (D-Granger) who is running for Senate; also my district! Brendan Mullen (D), who is running for the current IN-02, also lives here and would much rather run in a district like this. Safe D
Statewide
4
VAP: 92.8 W
43.5 Obama
Open; multiple mid-size cities in NW Indiana. No current Congresscritter represents a significant portion of this district. Safe R for whoever makes it out of the primary.
5
VAP: 92.2 W, 5.7 H
37.8 Obama
Marlin Stutzman (R-Howe) lives here; same as the 4th, no major cities. Original Tea Partier Stutzman will like this district. Safe R
6
VAP: 80.4 W, 10.5 B, 5.1 H
47.4 Obama
Open; Fort Wayne. There's an opening for a strong Fort Wayne Democrat, like current Mayor Tom Henry or former Mayor Graham Richard. Swing
7
VAP: 89.8 W, 6.4 B
51.7 Obama
Open; Muncie/Anderson and Kokomo. Obama's margin underestimates the local Democratic strength here. Lean D
8
VAP: 93.8 W
42.6 Obama
Open; Marion, Richmond and surrounding rurals. Successor to Mike Pence (R)'s IN-06, who is currently running for Governor. It's also the first of three districts (8, 9 and 13) containing major portions of Dan Burton's (R-Indianapolis) territory, and he could theoretically run in any of them. As always, he'd be extremely vulnerable in the primary though. Safe R
9
VAP: 89.4 W
38.5 Obama
Open; Indiana's own version of the Circle of Ignorance, including the worst of it, Hamilton County. Another one of Burton's remnants; probably the one he'd least like to run in though, the primary would be brutal. Safe R no matter what.
10
VAP: 87.2 W
54.3 Obama
Open; Dem bases of West Lafayette and Terre Haute. Lean D
11
VAP: 90.8 W
52.1 Obama
Todd Young (R-Bloomington) lives here; Obama's percentage gets a bit of a bump from the current IN-09. As long as Democrats here don't nominate someone too liberal, Democrats in the college town of Bloomington will turn out in force to elect him/her. Former Rep. Baron Hill's home is here, and he'd be pretty much invincible in any non-2010 year. But I don't think he's interested in running for the House again, so we may get State Rep. Peggy Welch instead. Likely D with Hill, Swing otherwise
12
VAP: 92.8 W
45.8 Obama
Open; Jeffersonville and the Ohio River Valley. State Senator (and former Senate Minority Leader) Richard Young (D) lives here, and he's probably the only one who could make it competitive for us. But he's 69, so I doubt he'll try. Safe R
13
VAP: 95.9 W
36.5 Obama
Open; remains of SE Indiana. Last of Burton's remains. Safe R
14
VAP: 91.7 W
47.8 Obama
Larry Bucshon (R-Newburgh) lives here; Evansville. Any decent Vanderburgh County Dem could win this in a non-2010 year. Accidental Rep. Bucshon would certainly be sent packing if Brad Ellsworth (D) ran again. Safe D with Ellsworth, Swing otherwise
15
VAP: 95.8 W
38.9 Obama
Open; Circle of Ignorance and into the Southwest. Most of Rep. Todd Rokita's (R-Indianapolis) territory is here. Safe R
Indianapolis
16
VAP: 65.3 W, 26.2 B
62 Obama
Northern Indy. Todd Rokita's home is here, but like I said he would run in the 15th. Being as this is both the most Democratic and the blackest of the Indy districts, Rep. André Carson would jump ship from the district containing his home and run here. Safe D
17
VAP: 69.5 W, 17.8 B, 8.8 H
56.2 Obama
Southern Indy; the aforementioned district containing Carson's home. He wouldn't run here, but another Dem could and win pretty handily. Safe D
18
VAP: 69.8 W, 19.8 B, 7.2 H
58.8 Obama
Western Indy, the only Indy district entirely within Marion County. Dan Burton's home is here, but he's never represented the area anyway. Safe D
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So compared to the 3-6 delegation we have currently, and the 2-5-2 map the Republicans enacted, this map is a pretty stable 8-7-3! Multiple mid-size cities throughout the state are Democrats' strength, but Republicans are pretty good at cracking them. The entire house stands at 63-45-13.
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