Chaos has never been clearer. This Iowa contest is probably the most bedeviling on record. Half of candidates competing in the caucus have a solid chance of winning, while the others battle it out for 4th place .This list will go by odds of winning, and well end with a prediction of the results, an obviously dangerous game. The list of candidates will be based on likeliness of winning.
1. Rick Santorum odds of winning 33%
Rick Santorum is close to unifying the Evangelical Christian vote in Iowa and pulling a stunning upset. Unify does also not mean unanimity. When Mike Huckabee was winning Iowa relatively handily, he was still only taking 46% of evangelical Christians. While Santorum won’t be approaching that number, A late break toward him is clear and he seems to be thanks to his support from a host of Christian Conservative leaders. Just a third of Evangelical Christians potentially puts you across the finish line. The decisive factor in predicting Santorum, was that Mike Huckabee beat his RCP Average in 08 by 6 %, and beat his best poll lead by 3%
2. Ron Paul Odds of winning 32 %
Ron Paul is on track for shockingly strong finish for many reasons.
First, repeat candidates almost always do better the second time they run. Two, Ron Paul’s team has been taking advantage of his campaign last time to build an organization in Iowa that has been on the grounding taking advantage of the repeat factor more than any other campaign. Three, Ron Paul’s paid media in the state has been head and shoulders above the rest. Fourth, the clarity, consistency and difference of Ron Paul’s message is clearly resonating with a segment of the public particularly some number of young people. Fifth, the election of Rand Paul in Kentucky and the lessons in professional that Team Paul learned has been invaluable. Sixth, the nature of a caucus makes most of these strengths more powerful and Ron Paul’s people of late has showed ability to mobilize not just passionately but effectively. The one knock is that a victory for him in Iowa would be something which Iowa’s Republican leaders would not like to see and it is possible that this desire will encourage people to break for Romney as a means of saving the Iowa Caucuses, but this is blunted by the rise of Santorum, paving way for a strong finish by Paul.
3. Mitt Romney odds of winning 31%
Mitt Romney might still win by simply being the last man standing, even in Iowa. He has barely campaigned in the state but because the Evangelical Christian base of the Republican Party is splitting five other ways. He now begins to benefit from being the only moderate in the race, and the incredibly poor tactical decision of Jon Huntsman to not go to Iowa, where Romney was less loved and insistence on New Hampshire where he is totally loved. Even if the moderate wing of the Republican Party is smallish, maybe 10% to 15% and that combined with 1 in 10 Conservatives riding the national wave could be sufficient. He hasn’t moved much off of 20% to 25% ever in Iowa but he might not need more.
4. Newt Gingrich, odds of winning 3%
December has obviously not been kind to Newt Gingrich. He was hammered away at by Ron Paul and seen his favorability tumble, and yet he seems to have at least for the time being stayed in contention and stopped bleeding. He also seems to be the only candidate besides Romney to be competing still in a national sense, every recent poll has shown a near national tie between Romney and Newt and it is possible that , as Caucus approaches, Newt will be able to gather enough to put a charge into the race. His ability to compete beyond Iowa, may allow for a late break for him. He is still marginally in the game.
5. Rick Perry, odds of winning 2%
This is mostly just a numbers game, if Rick Santorum’s 16% is good enough to still be contention, than it is hard to argue inherently that Rick Perry’s 10% is not enough. He has also spent most money amongst the most in the field. A late break in his direction can’t be completely discounted. However the trend looks terrible, this is mostly a hedge.
6. Michele Bachmann odds of winning 0%
She is really struggling in this race at this point and is hard to see how she pulls it out. She does have a few advantages in that she won the Iowa Straw Poll, has something of a head start on the ground and checks all the box, and at the moment is staying somewhat out of the fray. However the recent turmoil of the last few days and her polling collapse have ended pretty much ended her campaign.
Conclusion
Passion is often the most important thing in a caucus, and Christians and Paulists have more of it than Romney people. Therefore, with every possibility to be wrong. I go with, Santorum 23, Paul 22.5 Romney 22, Gingrich, 14, Perry 10, Bachmann 6, Other 2.5. Also go with a turnout between 100,000 to 110,000 down slightly from 2008.
As a bonus,Here is the a formula for figuring out how each candidate is doing in Iowa as the results come in for top three finishers. The Des Moines Register has results from old races that are instructive. For Mittt Romney the math is simple, if he holds the same basic vote total as 2008, he should be in for a probably winning night, the more off pace he has the more trouble he is in. For Rick Santorum, he should be looking to get about 2/3 of the Huckabee vote to feel comfortable, although that would be a slight loss to Romney. For Paul, he needs to at least double his support from 2008, and probably needs 2.5 times to be successful. For other bench marker , you can check Santorum against combined Bauer and Keyes from 2000[needs to slightly beat the percentage] For Romney, Dole in 1996, for Paul, Buchannan in 1996.