(crossposted from Buffalo Ridge Blog )
There's a whole emerging science of crash analysis where investigators calculate the speeds, timing, and direction of the vehicles involved by measuring where the vehicles ended up and feeding that data into some fancy computer logarithums... Looking at the seven odd political dwarfs competing in Iowa for the republican presidential endorsement, one sees a new application for this "crash science". Now the conventional wisdom is that you use a bunch of poll results to predict which candidate will survive tonight's train wreck and even get a "bump" down the campaign trail. Conventional wisdom is bunk when it comes to prognosticating the Iowa caucus, where turnout will vary from single digits to at best thirty percent depending on the weather on caucus night, babysitter availability, voter enthusiasm (or more likely lack thereof), and the latest attack ad.
So forget the polls, we'll look at the momentum the campaigns have and try to predict their trajectories and the damage to their campaigns from tonight's train wreck. Let's examine the "crash scene" first- the republican caucus is essentially a low turnout primary in a state of small towns. And while one would think the Buffalo Ridge, homeland to Bachmann's bud Steve King, would play a pivotal role in the caucus results. Well, maybe if they got really really fired up, but with Bachmann, Santorum, and Perry splitting the religious wacko vote that's unlikely. Republican caucus turnout in the Buffalo Ridge bible belt of northwest Iowa is often in single digit percentages and seldom exceeds twenty percent. Iowa republican caucus turnout is usually highest in central Iowa in the counties around the state capitol and major media market of Des Moines, and thirty percent turnouts there are not unknown. Even the lefty college counties and industrial counties of eastern Iowa usually produce better caucus night turnout then the Buffalo Ridge. Why? Probably the same "distance from the seat of government" phenomena we see in western Minnesota- folks tune out of the political process because the state capitol is over a hundred miles away in a different TV market. The Buffalo Ridge in Iowa can get motivated by a really rabid republican candidate like they did for Bauer a few caucuses back, but that's the exception rather than the rule. So truth is, this train wreck is gonna happen in the republican bedroom commmunities around Des Moines and Cedar Rapids rather than the cattle country of Iowa's chunk of the Buffalo Ridge.
Having established the approximate crash site, let's look at the momentum each candidate brings to tonight's train wreck. Mr. Romney is clearly fueled by the old school corporate republicans; It was no surprise recently when a former republican elected official and highway construction company owner jumped from uncommitted to the Romney train and hosted a Romney rally at his company's shop. He knows who's likely to win the nomination and if elected president will be handing out the highway contracts. He traded his political capital as it peaked on caucus eve, and fellow business republicans and anyone else they could drag along filled that event with 800 "supporters". Romney's been drawing big crowds all over Iowa, and his train is well fueled.... But his business republican backers will jump clear at the first warning of an impending crash. None the less, Romney's the man to beat.
Next up is Ron Paul, who's campaign's stealth has hidden one of the best powered and organized trains. Imagine a dark version of Obama's 2008 field operation, and you've got the Paul campaign. While most of the campaigns have only an "air war", Paul's campaign's " ground war" beats anything in Iowa but Obama's. Paul's event turnouts have rivaled Romney's, and Paul isn't promising any juicy federal contracts to his supporters. I give Paul even odds of beating Romney, this one's a tossup that'll be determined by turnout. I might hazard a more exact guess around 7 pm when the caucuses convene.
Santorum is on a roll, but the defeated senator who just got upgraded from a pickup to a tour bus still doesn't have that much momentum behind him. It's telling that he and Gingrich are playing to the small rooms on Iowa's western frontier- in a hotel lobby in Council Bluffs or Sioux City fifty people looks like a crowd. But those western Iowa religious republicans are still undecided between Santorum, Bachman, and Perry... In PolSci 101 they teach you that undecided voters tend to stay home. With Gingrich, Perry and Bachman losing steam, Santorum is guaranteed the low spot on the podium and third place, once he crawls out of the wreckage.
The Roadkill- Gingrich, Bachman, Perry, ad nauseum... It ain't gonna be pretty! This trios been losing steam for weeks and barely able to make it over the hills of west Iowa, despite pulling a pretty short train. Slammed in single digits, they'll none the less drag themselves back to the campaign trail, blaming everyone but themselves for their fate. It's long been said that the Iowa caucuses weed out the losers rather than pick the winner, but with these candidates that can't take a hint, one wonders why Iowans bother? Looking on the positive side, we won't see much of Bachman in Minnesota or congress nor Perry in Texas for awhile,and that's not a bad thing.
Well, a couple more hours and the misery will be over, and this prognosticator will probably look like a fool (again).