CNN poll shows good news for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (Bryan Snyder/Reuters)
ORC for CNN and Time (PDF). January 4-5, 2012. Likely Republican primary voters. ±4.5%. (11/29-12/6 results.)
Romney: 37 (20)
Santorum: 19 (4)
Gingrich: 18 (43)
Paul: 12 (6)
Perry: 5 (8)
Huntsman: 1 (1)
If the election were held today, these numbers would be great for Mitt Romney, but as Newt Gingrich shows, things can change quickly. CNN asked voters whether they would consider changing their minds and 49% said they might switch preferences, and when you're leading by as much as Mitt Romney, that's not a number you like to see. That being said, even though Rick Santorum and to a lesser extent Ron Paul are gaining ground, they have a ton of it to cover, at least according to this poll.
Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry won't like this poll at all—Gingrich because his support has collapsed, and Perry because it continues to dwindle. If Perry doesn't show some ability to recover, I'd expect him to withdraw before the primary—though it's plausible he could unload some of his $3 million war chest in negative ads against one of the candidates. Whatever he does, at 5%, he's not a major factor in voter preference.
9:43 AM PT: PPP tweets:
Our poll's probably going to end up about splitting the difference between Rasmussen and CNN on Romney's SC lead.
Rasmussen had shown a near-tie between Romney and Santorum.