Rick Santorum is on the march. Or, his post-Iowa bounce is much ado about nothing, and Mitt Romney is still indisputably the frontrunner on the Republican side of the presidential ledger.
If you were looking for clarity, today's mini-monsoon of polling data will do very little to meet your needs. Taken as a whole, there are a few themes that are developing, which we will explore after the jump.
For now, however, let's get to the quick-and-dirty parade of numbers that was the day in polling on the Republican primary (there were no general election White House 2012 numbers to digest on Friday):
NATIONAL (Gallup): Romney 27, Gingrich 19, Santorum 15, Paul 12, Perry 6, "Other" (including Bachmann) 6, Huntsman 2
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Marist/NBC): Romney 42, Paul 22, Santorum 13, Gingrich 9, Huntsman 9, Perry 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Pulse Opinion Research/Watchdog.org): Romney 37, Paul 19, Huntsman 16, Santorum 14, Gingrich 9, Perry <1
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen): Romney 42, Paul 18, Santorum 13, Huntsman 12, Gingrich 8, Perry 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Suffolk University Tracking): Romney 40, Paul 17, Santorum 11, Gingrich 9, Huntsman 8, Perry 1,
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire/WMUR): Romney 44, Paul 20, Gingrich 8, Santorum 8, Huntsman 7, Perry 1, Roemer 1, Karger <1
SOUTH CAROLINA (American Research Group): Romney 31, Gingrich 24, Santorum 24, Paul 9, Huntsman 2, Perry 2
SOUTH CAROLINA (CNN/Time): Romney 37, Santorum 19, Gingrich 18, Paul 12, Perry 5, Huntsman 1
SOUTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 27, Santorum 24, Gingrich 18, Paul 11, Perry 5, Huntsman 2
A few thoughts about this poll-a-palooza are waiting for you just beyond the jump.
What to make of this tangled web of polling numbers? I think it is safe to draw a couple of conclusions:
- The forward momentum for Rick Santorum is real, and has not been fully realized yet. HOWEVER...
- As long as both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are in the field, it is going to be very hard to extricate Mitt Romney from the front-runner position. BECAUSE...
- Ron Paul ain't going anywhere. And he's gonna get his. I don't see him as a betting favorite in any state that matters. He might snag one of the smaller caucus-driven states late in the process, or a state like South Dakota late in the game. But he will get a reliable 10-20 percent of the vote everywhere he goes.
What this means, in essence, is what I have been arguing for some time now. As long as there are more than three candidates in the field, Mitt Romney will win the nomination notching 25-40 percent of the vote everywhere he goes. But if one candidate can consolidate all of the anti-Mitt vote, Romney is going to need more than 40 percent of the vote to survive these races.
Now, polling last month on candidate "second choices" hinted that Gingrich voters were as likely to consider Romney as their second choice as they would anyone else. Indeed, our pals at PPP made that exact claim last month.
While the crosstabs were pretty clear on the subject, I remain quite skeptical, and I offer the Gallup daily tracker as my exhibit "A" to that effect. Newt Gingrich has seen his support halved in that Gallup tracker in the past month. But look at how Romney and Santorum have done since then:
Gallup Tracking Poll, December 1-5, 2011
Newt Gingrich: 37
Mitt Romney: 23
Rick Santorum: 3
Gallup Tracking Poll, December 29, 2011-January 5, 2011
Mitt Romney: 27
Newt Gingrich: 19
Rick Santorum: 15
A look at those trendlines doesn't make much of a case that as Gingrich bleeds support, his wavering fans are going to disperse evenly. And, the common thread, using basic mathematic symbols: Gingrich + Santorum > Romney. It was true a month ago, and it remains true today.
The nightmare scenario for GOP foes of Mitt Romney may well be developing. New Hampshire, with its fierce independent streak, could relegate Santorum and Gingrich into deep also-ran status behind Romney (a quasi-home state candidate) and Ron Paul. Now that Santorum has elected to play in the Granite State (a mistake, in my book), he really cannot afford a third or fourth place finish, with support somewhere in the teens. That's what happened to Mike Huckabee after Iowa last time around (actually, he even failed to make it to the teens, drawing 11 percent), and it dealt a heck of a blow to his bid.
Plus, it puts additional pressure on Santorum for South Carolina. If, as some polls suggest, Santorum runs third in South Carolina, how can he claim a viable campaign? A second place, followed by a pair of thirds, is not exactly the signature of a campaign juggernaut.
Suddenly, the stakes are higher in New Hampshire, but not for the front spot. Romney's only challenge is to top 40 percent, because a 10-15 point win will be portrayed as a disappointment. The battle is for second. Paul looks like a lock to get it, but Santorum needs it. If he pulls it off, he may well be legit.