Even though his performance (39%) was on the lower edge of a "strong result", Mitt Romney has to be pretty happy with what went down in New Hampshire last night. Neither of his two leading conservative rivals did enough to stake an unambiguous claim to be the "Anti-Mitt", so that little kerfluffle heads to South Carolina. That, of course, means that Romney could cruise to another win with numbers in the 20s or 30s.
More importantly, a lot of the chattering classes took to their papers, their websites, and Twitter today to proclaim that, after just eight days, the GOP primary was essentially over. The anointment of Mitt Romney today was awfully presumptuous, but unless either Gingrich or Santorum hits the bricks, it's hard to see how the scenario in the first two rounds doesn't get replicated again and again.
So, after the jump, we will take an early look at Obama v. Romney, and why you shouldn't necessarily believe anything you've seen yet in terms of polling data.
But, first, all the nums out of both the GOP primary and the general election. Starting with the primary festivities, where for the first time in about three weeks, we have a poll where Newt Gingrich (!) is pacing the field!
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 31, Gingrich 16, Santorum 15, Paul 13, Perry 6, Huntsman 2
NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Romney 30, Gingrich 20, Paul 16, Santorum 13, Perry 7, Huntsman 3
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Romney 36, Gingrich 25, Santorum 17, Paul 7, "Other" 5
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Gingrich 25, Santorum 24, Romney 22, Paul 9, Huntsman 4, Perry 4, Roemer 1
SOUTH CAROLINA (We Ask America): Romney 36 26, Gingrich 21, Santorum 13, Paul 8, Perry 5, Huntsman 4
We are starting to see general election numbers again, though what they are telling us differs dramatically depending on the pollster, especially if you factor in Monday's CBS poll:
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters): Obama d. Romney (48-43); Obama d. Paul (48-41); Obama d. Santorum (51-40); Obama d. Gingrich (53-38)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (44-41); Obama d. Gingrich (46-38)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Romney d. Obama (46-43); Obama d. Santorum (45-43)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama tied with Santorum (46-46); Obama d. Romney (46-45); Obama d. Gingrich (49-43); Obama d. Paul (47-41); Obama d. Perry (49-41)
So, if Romney is the guy (and his path to the nomination is way more plausible than it was ten days ago), how does the president match up with him? Check past the jump to see why that question is way more complicated than at first glance.
So, if you buy stock in CBS' numbers from Monday, Mitt Romney would start the general election with a small lead over the president. But, if the Ipsos/Reuters poll is the one you have faith in, Barack Obama has to be considered a bettor's favorite to be re-elected.
The bottom line, however, is that polls of the general election right now, while interesting in the watercooler conversational sense, are almost certainly errant. The good news for Democrats is that it is easy to make a compelling case for why the polls are wrong in a way that underestimates the president's performance. Alas, the bad news for Democrats is that it is equally simple to make a compelling case for why the polls are wrong in a way that overestimates the president's performance.
WHY BARACK OBAMA'S NUMBERS ARE BETTER THAN THEY SEEM
1. The "only game in town" effect
One argument I have seen in the past few days which tried to "refudiate" the CBS poll is that Mitt Romney's numbers are artificially high right now, because the GOP primary is dominating the free media airwaves. That, of course, is undeniably true, at least as it relates to political conversation. For one example, the Republicans have had about 239 debates thus far (including two within 12 hours over the weekend), so Mitt Romney has had hours and hours of airtime to make his case. And that doesn't even count paid media in early primary states (which might explain why Romney does comparably well in recent state polling in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida).
When the battle is joined, the theory goes, Romney's artificial free media edge will evaporate. That will be to the benefit of the president, when the time comes.
2. The third party effect
A former Republican contender (former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson) is already likely to be on the ballot in November, as the leading candidate of the Libertarian Party. Today, the crew at PPP, for a lark, examined a three-way tabulation involving Obama, Romney, and Johnson. What they found was that a two-man race that was separated by a single point became a four-point Obama lead (45-41-8) when Johnson was added to the mix. Replicated nationally, that could be the margin of victory in a close election.
The polls have shown, time and again, that Republican voters are far from jazzed about the caliber of their contingent this time out. It is hard to deny that GOP base voters are far more likely to bail to a third party contender than are Democrats.
3. The shitty GOP field effect
One of the primary benefits of primary elections is that it exposes the weaknesses in your campaign, and allows you to correct any errors and fill any gaps before the glaring lights of September and October beat down on you.
The problem with this Republican primary, at least to date, is that the GOP field has hit around the periphery of the Romney camp's most glaring weaknesses, but have been pretty ineffective at really drilling him for them. Partly that has been an issue of focus--as Saturday's debate most clearly demonstrated, they are all so eager to establish themselves as the primary alternative to Romney that they often forget they need to land some punches on Romney, too. Team Obama, one has to believe, is compiling one hell of an opposition file for November watching this primary. And, unlike Romney's Republican rivals, one has to believe that they will do a better job of maximizing those attacks.
WHY MITT ROMNEY'S NUMBERS ARE BETTER THAN THEY SEEM
1. The GOP "Kumbaya" moment hasn't happened yet
Our polling partners over at PPP have been all over this for months. They have warned potentially complacent Democrats that a two-point Obama lead over Mitt Romney is really a mirage, because the undecided voters in that two-way tabulation were overwhelmingly negative in their opinion of the Obama presidency. These, mostly, are Republicans and conservative Indies. When the rubber meets the road, most of them will vote GOP. The ones that don't, will likely stay home.
John McCain's best numbers were in the summer after the long and fractious Democratic primary, where crestfallen Hillary Clinton supporters wrestled with reconciling their presidential choice in the wake of a primary where their candidate came so tantalizingly close to the prize. But, in the final analysis, Democrats overwhelmingly came home in November. There is no reason to think that the same thing won't happen on the Republican side this time around.
2. The "moderate by association" effect
This one is primarily anecdotal, but bear with me. Poll after poll shows voters, at best, ambivalent about the idea of a second Obama term. The president is no better than even money in most polls when compared with a "generic Republican." Mitt Romney has truly been blessed by the LACK of quality in his opposition. It is hard not to look centrist when paired with the buffet of batshit crazy that has been the 2012 GOP presidential field.
Not only that, but their primary attacks, until this week, have centered on how moderate he is. As Armando noted on Sunday Kos this week, they could not be doing him a bigger general election favor than to remind voters of what an apostate he is as it related to Republican Party orthodoxy. With the GOP brand name swirling around the bowl right now, being branded as insufficiently Republican is a pretty huge favor for November.
So ... what does all this mean? It means that, absent a truly legitimate right-of-center third party option or a huge change in the nation's economic well being, this should be a very, very close election. But don't assume the polls right now are stacked for or against this president. There are plausible cases to be made either way.