As if this evening needs anymore drama: via TalkingPointsMemo
We begin here in south carolina this evening with the fast changing Republican presidential race. Fast, as in overnight. Our new CNN/ORC tonight shows Mitt Romney leading here by 10 points. 33 percent for the former Massachusetts Governor to 23 percent for the former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, but, and this is important, the final 24 hours of our polling suggests a Gingrich surge. And my sources in several Republican campaigns tell me tonight, there numbers too are detecting a significant shift, a shift that benefits Gingrich heading into the final hours here. Want proof? A senior Romney campaign aid described this to me as a troublesome development, and the response from team Romney was immediate. A tough new tv ad labeling Gingrich an unreliable leader
As most know by now, Perry will drop out and endorse Gingrich. It appears conservatives are in the process of deciding that Gingrich is their best chance to stop Romney. Clearly both Santorum and Perry are losing support in the last few days.
John King is talking about a surge in the last 24 hours. Is there any other evidence for this?
YES. as the table below shows. Remember, PPP says Romney and Gingrich are tied. Moreover, the Politico poll has Gingrich and Romney tied among those who have decided. Romney's lead in that poll is made up of leaners. Interestingly, more people in the politico poll strongly approve of Gingrich (40%) than Romney (36%), suggesting Newt has room to grow.
Update 11:39
Two more polls are out, both showing Gingrich leading. ARG has Gingrich up 33-32 with 19 for Paul. Rasmussen has it Gingrich 33, Romney 31, Paul 15.
In addition, there is the one day Rasmussen national poll that has Newt within 3. The rest of the polling both in South Carolina and Nationally would not have caught a surge in the last 24 hours given the dates of the polling.
Update 9:51 am EST
Some of the polling contains guidance as to the source of the shift. Below I speculated that the fall was in part due to Bain. 70% in the Politico poll indicated that Bain didn't matter to them. The Marist Poll indicates that much of Newt's surge is among voters who call themselves VERY conservative.
Looking at those who are very conservative, Gingrich is favored by 33% compared with 23% for Romney and 22% for Santorum. On Monday alone, Gingrich received the support of 32% followed by 27% for Romney and 24% for Santorum. On Tuesday, Gingrich is backed by 35% compared with Santorum at 20% and Romney at 19%
Marist finds similar shifts among Tea Party voters. Below I speculate Gingrich might not get hurt by the ABC Interview. Given that much of this surge is among VERY conservative voters, I wonder if that is true.
End Update
By now most of you now about the two earthquakes that happened in the GOP race:
1. Drudge is reporting that ABC has an interview with Newt's second wife in which she blasts Newt. For more information, this diary here has the details.
2. ABC is reporting that Romney has millions stashed away in the Cayman Islands, presumably as a tax dodge.
So what are the implications:
1. The attacks on Bain have hurt Romney more than I had thought. Remember: voters in SC are seeing a different race than the rest of this. The intuition here is that when the attack on Bain is joined seriously, it hits Romney hard.
2. The NEW information is likely to continue to hurt Romney.
3. The allegations from Newt's ex aren't really new, but they do personalize concerns that have hurt Gingirch since December.
To sum: we have two wounded front runners, themselves suffereing new blows THAT GO RIGHT TO THEIR MAIN VULNERABILITY.
All this is happening against a very real effort on the part of some conservatives to get Perry out of the race.
In 1992 I worked for Bob Kerrey in New Hampshire. I saw Clinton get hit with two scandals. The first, Gennifer Flowers, didn't hurt him. It caused a huge media sensation, with Clinton giving an interview on 60 minutes after the Super Bowl, but the impact on polling was much less than you would expect. What the Clinton people realized was that the scandal was a media boomlet born out of our fascination with sex. It was INTERESTING but not IMPORTANT.
By contrast, 6 days out a letter came to light about Clinton and the draft. That did hurt Clinton, and he went from 40 to 18. He didn't really recover until the Convention.
I don't know whether the Gingrich people realize that they may have an opportunity. If the handle it correctly, I don't think it will hurt him.
By contrast, if the polling from CNN and Rasumussen is right and Bain has hit Romney, the Cayman story may really hit him badly.
What mattered in New Hampshire was how the Clinton Campaign handled the storm. They did it well - amazingly. One of these campaigns is going to make a tactical mistake here. The one that does may very well look back and see that the nomination was lost in the next 48 hours.
8:12 PM PT: PPP is reporting that their first night of polling in SC shows Newt and Romney tied.