Public Policy Polling released their last night of polling a few minutes ago. In interviews conducted tonight, Gingrich leads Romney 40-26. Over the last three nights Gingrich leads 37-28. This polling has to be viewed against the backdrop of the movement in the national race. Gallup's chief pollster said Romney was collapsing. He noted today that Romney leads Gingrich 30%-20% in Gallup's latest daily track; yesterday, Romney was leading 33%-17%. Gallup uses a 5 day rolling summary, so it is very likely that they will show Gingrich at least tied, and probably leading by Monday. Of course, on Tuesday Rasmussen found Romney's lead down to 3.
The White House, and Democrats, have to be praying for a Gingrich win. A couple of tidbits from recent polling:
In Texas, that's right, Texas, Obama leads Gingrich 47-45.
while he trails Romney 49-42.
In Ohio , Obama leads Romney by 2, 44-42. He leads Gingrich by 14, 52-38.
Nationally, CBS has Obama leading Gingrich by 11, while he is tied with Romney.
Look at Gingrich's mind blowing favorables:
PPP, Jan 16: 26 favorable, 60 unfavorable
Fox News, Jan 14, 27 favorable, 56 unfavorable
CNN, December 12, 28 favorable, 58 unfavorable
Let's look at the polling in South Carolina:
Update 12:04 EST I have added three projections and new polling. This race is extremely volatile. What I would note, though, is Romney's fall into the 20's in the last two days is now confirmed by four pollsters. There is clearly a blowout in the making here, and my projection feels conservative.
The thing to notice is the polling from PPP and Clemson. They are the only two pollsters who have been in the field since the twin scandals hit Romney and Gingrich. Both show Romney falling below 30. Both suggest to me that Gingrich is likely to win by at least 10.
It is all stunning. The GOP is clearly on the verge of rallying behind a candidate who performs terribly against Obama. Moreover, we should not underestimate the effect of a large Gingrich win.
This table shows the effect that winning New Hampshire has on National Polling. The principal is the same, though we are talking about South Carolina in this instance. A large win in primary can completely remake the national race. We are already seeing this happen, and if Gingrich does win South Carolina, he is likely to have a strong lead nationally next week. I should note that I noted in 2008 that Obama got a 13.8 point bounce in the 72 hours after his win in South Carolina. About the only good news for Romney is that bounces fade after about a week, and there will be about 10 days between South Carolina and Florida. Romney does have time to fight back - but he is mortally wounded.