Skip to main content


If there's one thing Chicken-Hawks know about, it's about how to put other people's kids into Harm's Way ... whether or not there is evidence to justify the Military action or not.

Long as there's something in it for them -- their own political ambitions, or those ambitions of their industrial backers.


Tough talk on Iran from GOP candidates
by Micah Zenko and Emma Welch, latimes.com -- Jan 10, 2012

[...]
Mitt Romney sets the tone, arguing that the Obama administration has been weak in managing an increasingly intransigent and confrontational Iranian regime. "If we reelect Barack Obama, Iran will have a nuclear weapon," Romney stated unequivocally. "And if you elect Mitt Romney, Iran will not have a nuclear weapon."
[...]

Rick Santorum has repeatedly called for a preemptive bombing strike on Iranian nuclear facilities as part of his "plan." He has implied that he would expand the use of covert operations, possibly including targeted killings, against Iranian nuclear scientists: "I will say to any foreign scientist that's going into Iran to help on their [nuclear] program: You will be treated like an enemy combatant, like an Al Qaeda member."
[...]

Newt Gingrich explicitly advocates regime change by whatever means necessary. In the short term, he has called for increased sanctions and covert operations to "break the Iranian regime" within a year by "cutting off the gasoline supply to Iran and then, frankly, sabotaging the only refinery they have."


Well the GOP Chicken-Hawks may already be getting their wish, about that "covert war" option, with our latest enemy de jour, ramping up on the drumbeat circuit ...


This was a one-day story here in the states.  Over in Iran, it was a bit more than that -- it was a bit more than "just another bomb going off in the Middle East." In Iran, it was clear evidence of a pattern forming.


Iran Signals Revenge Over Killing of Scientist
by Rick Gladstone -- nytimes.com -- Jan 12, 2012

Iran expressed deepening fury at Israel and the United States on Thursday over the drive-by bombing that killed a nuclear scientist in Tehran the day before, and signaled that its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps might carry out revenge assassinations.
[...]

The scientist, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, 32, was deputy director of the Natanz uranium enrichment plant. He was killed on his way to work in rush-hour traffic in Tehran on Wednesday morning. Iranian news accounts said that a motorcyclist slapped a magnetized bomb on his car, killing Mr. Roshan and mortally wounding his driver and bodyguard, identified as Reza Qashaqei.

Mr. Roshan was at least the fifth Iranian scientist with nuclear connections to be killed since 2007.


When one country does it -- it's called "terrorism."

When other countries do it -- it's called "self defense."


Are the assassinations of Iranian scientists an act of terrorism?
by Dan Murphy, Staff writer, csmonitor.com -- Jan 12, 2012

[...]
Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a chemist who the Iranian state press says was the marketing director for Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, was the latest victim. He was killed by a small bomb affixed to the underside of his car, the same method used to murder nuclear physicist Massoud Ali Mohammadi in Tehran exactly a year ago. In all, four scientists connected to nuclear work in Iran have been killed since the start of 2010.
[...]

Whoever is responsible, the murders appear to be as much about spreading terror as they are about stopping the nuclear program. Iran has legions of capable engineers, and none of the victims appear to have had indispensable knowledge or abilities. According to the Congressional Research Service, Iran's main nuclear research complex in Isfahan probably has 3,000 employees alone, and the there are about 10 other major nuclear sites in the country.

But spreading fear among the living can slow them down, spread confusion, or deter young recruits. If scientists became frightened enough, they might be reluctant to travel to work or conferences inside the country. Meanwhile, enhanced security measures at the sites could prove cumbersome.


Was it real?  or is it Memorex?   Was it "terrorism?" or "self defense?"

... because as we've been told, We MUST Defend ourselves against Terror, before it strikes, home again.  Be afraid. Be very afraid.  Our global freedom depends on it.

Now that's the kind of weasel-language a Chicken-Hawk could really learn to launch a career from, eh?...


So what's the basis for all this "sky-is-falling" rhetoric, which has painted Iran as our next national security interest?  Could it possibly be, these vaguely-dire warnings from the U.S. NIE?


National Intelligence Estimate:  Iran - Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities
cfr.org -- Published November 2007

This National Intelligence Estimate report on Iran's nuclear capabilities states "We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely. We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame. (INR judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013 because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.) All agencies recognize the possibility that this capability may not be attained until after 2015."

[Note:  HEU = Highly enriched uranium]


You know, that's the same U.S. NIE that already has such an incredible Track Record, on prognosticating just who the "bad guys" are ... and where they are ... and who they will strike next.

Don't you remember -- these guys:


Declassified Report: No Al Qaeda Link In Pre-War Iraq
from Kathy Gill, About.com Guide --  Sep 8, 2006

[...]
The document is a scathing indictment of the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), the document which presents a unified (some say political) front, reconciling or brushing over difference of opinion among various intelligence agencies. The NIE was used to justify attacking Iraq in March 2003.

Both post-war and pre-war intelligence show "no credible information that Iraq was complicit in or had foreknowledge of the September 11 attacks or any other al Qaeda strikes."  [...]

Other conclusions from the report:

    * "Postwar findings do not support the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate judgment that Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program. [...]

    * "Postwar findings do not support the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate judgment that Iraq's acquisition of high strength aluminum tubes was intended for an Iraqi nuclear program.  [...]

    * "Postwar findings do not support the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate judgment that Iraq was 'vigorously trying to procure uranium ore and yellowcake' from Africa.  [...]

    * "No postwar information indicates that Iraq intended to use al Qaeda or any other terrorist group to strike the United States homeland before or during Operation Iraqi Freedom."  [...]


When will America pause and reflect on what is it really, that sends us to war, time and time again?

Probably when Chicken-Hawks actually learn to fly ... or actually learn to Check the Facts.  ie.  NOT soon enough!


The National Intelligence Estimate DOES actually have quite the Track Record, afterall ... whether Chicken-Hawks care to review it or not.  Too bad this weren't some kind of 'sporting event', where the stats actually mattered, eh ...


SO what do you think, Will Iran become the next Iraq (War)?

Well a lot depend on whether the American People (led by the Media), decides to tune out on this one too?

... I hear the next season of 'Survivor' is gonna be pretty good -- they're adopting an 'American Idol' dial-in format, for the Immunity competition -- sort of as a cross-format experiment.  Now that's must-see TVeee!

Be sure to to tune in now, ya hear!  Their ratings depend on it.



EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  anyone know.. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamess, HoundDog, bear83

    who uses magnetized bombs attached to cars?

    If it had been a drone, we'd have a pretty clear idea.

    A man, a plan, a canal, Panama

    by Karl Rover on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:05:23 PM PST

    •  The State Dept statement on the event (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Karl Rover, truong son traveler

      is hardly a clarion call for Truth, Justice, and Transparency:


      In statements, Iran blamed the attack on Israel and the United States. Iran's Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi told state television that the incident will not stop the country from advancing its nuclear activities.

      In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland says the United States “condemns any assassination or attack on an innocent person.” But when asked if the Iranian scientist was an innocent life, she “had nothing further to say on this.”

      Asked about Iran's allegations that Israel and the United States were behind the bombing, she said, “I am not going to speak to who may or may not have done this one way or the other.”


      Bombing Kills Iranian Nuclear Scientist
      voanews -- January 11th, 2012
      http://blogs.voanews.com/...


      What is necessary to change a person is to change his awareness of himself.
      -- Maslow ...... my list.

      by jamess on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:29:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  sounds like Mossad to me. (0+ / 0-)

      Magnetized bombs are kinda' oldschool tech for the US and don't really fit our standard MO for these things.  Today it's all about the drones, and where drones don't go, snipers do.  

      If it was poison I'd say Russia.

      But look at how this was done: delivery on a motorcycle.

      That takes the kind of ballz, up close & personal, that the Mossad are famous for.

      By which I don't mean to suggest that I approve of it.  But it's understandable given how vulnerable Israel is and the fact that Iran's titular head of state is a flaming anti-Semite and Holocaust denier.  

      "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

      by G2geek on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:54:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It could be anyone capable of making (0+ / 0-)

      a bomb.  I use magnetized keyholders on my car (and so do lots of other people)and the FBI uses magnetized GPS trackers.

      There is no saving throw against stupid.

      by Throw The Bums Out on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:21:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wow, let's talk about Survivor! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamess

    Because you mentioned it!

    Do think they'll continue to embrace the paradigm of "Screw everybody" that has been so successful for years?

    Do you think they'll actually pay the actors on the show, or will they continue to pretend it's a competition?

    /snark

    One of these days, I'm gonna learn that I'm only really good at convincing people when I'm being a wiseass. Reviewtopia.net

    by detroitmechworks on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:07:03 PM PST

    •  lol (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      detroitmechworks, TheLawnRanger

      I haven't really watched that show, since the 1st season.

      Life is too short.

      I can believe it's still around.

      There's no accounting for vicarious entertainment, I guess.


      What is necessary to change a person is to change his awareness of himself.
      -- Maslow ...... my list.

      by jamess on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:19:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Honestly, I was stoked... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jamess

        When I first heard about the idea.  As a gamer, I thought it would be similar to a lot of LARP's I'd been to and so did a lot of my friends.

        We thought that the players would be trying to help each other and play with the idea of having a good time.

        Instead... political garbage and constant fighting.  Exactly the opposite of what we had envisioned.

        I hate being Chaotic Good in a Neutral Evil world.  ;)

        One of these days, I'm gonna learn that I'm only really good at convincing people when I'm being a wiseass. Reviewtopia.net

        by detroitmechworks on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:22:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for reporting on this dangerous (6+ / 0-)

    situation jamess.

    The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

    by HoundDog on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:07:54 PM PST

    •  there is a showdown brewing (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cotterperson, ranger995, HoundDog

      in the oil shipping lanes over there now, or so I've heard ...

      [...]
      Those ambiguous waters are what President Obama will be navigating as he confronts the growing Iran crisis even as he campaigns for reelection.

      That ambiguity was on display Wednesday, as the White House denied an Iranian lawmaker’s claim that Mr. Obama recently proposed direct US-Iran talks to the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

      The Iranian official said the proposal for direct talks came in a letter in which Obama also warned that any move to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes up to one-fifth of the world’s oil, is a “red line” for the United States.

      http://www.csmonitor.com/...


      What is necessary to change a person is to change his awareness of himself.
      -- Maslow ...... my list.

      by jamess on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:16:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good Diary (3+ / 0-)

    but the short answer is no!

    Military action against Iran would be folly of the highest order.

    Iran has a large, well trained and well-equipped conventional army.

    It's questionable that the US has the resources to mount a sustained military campaign (war) there, and even if we could, the body-bags would return by the tens of thousands.

    Most of the rhetoric about Iran is spouted by those who enjoy the publicity and "talk is cheap".

    I hope that the quality of debate will improve,
    but I fear we will remain Democrats.

    by twigg on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:11:59 PM PST

    •  I hope you're right, twigg (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      twigg

      But with all those unemployed Iraq Vets,

      well you never know ...


      What is necessary to change a person is to change his awareness of himself.
      -- Maslow ...... my list.

      by jamess on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:17:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  :: sigh :: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jamess

        I hope I am right too, or there is a whole lot of pain in the future of that part of the 99% who chooses to Serve!

        I hope that the quality of debate will improve,
        but I fear we will remain Democrats.

        by twigg on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:20:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  short answer is: It Depends. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jamess, palantir, Radical def, twigg

      Prediction:

      With Obama in a second term, here's what happens (and I'm speaking from a certain amount of knowledge of events and trends that are not public): the US provides covert support to Iranian dissident groups, including communications technologies for use before, during, and after, the next Iranian election.  Goal: enable the Iranian dissidents to replace Ahmadinejad with a moderate who can be negotiated with.  

      With any of the Republicans: war.  

      Mitt: to "prove himself."  Santorum: ditto.

      Newt: to make history.  He's so into the whole "I'm a historian" thing that the next logical step is to "make history."

      "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

      by G2geek on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:00:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  technology is changing the equation (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jamess

      A high tech war might be envisioned...drones, cruise missiles and cyberattacks.  Who knows what goes through the heads of these people?

      "By your late thirties the ground has begun to grow hard. It grows harder and harder until the day that it admits you.” Thomas McGuane, Nobody's Angel

      by Keith930 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:28:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's not clear what they've been up to but the (3+ / 0-)

    tone is changing now, almost as if the pushback the U.S. and Israel got from China and Russia and other countries regarding military action and the oil embargo.  Some have said the road to Tehran is thru Damascus, so perhaps something with Syria is up next.  That was one of the countries on the list mentioned by General Clark.  

    •  correction: "almost as if the pushback . . . (3+ / 0-)

      has caused them to pull back.  

      That said, a provocation or retaliation is still possible with all that's going on so the changing in tone could be something else entirely.  

    •  funny you mention Syria (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BigAlinWashSt

      it appears to be the emerging story today:

      The State Department said Friday it 'may have no choice' but to close the U.S. embassy in Syria's capitol of Damascus and remove all US personnel from the country.
      [...]

      The department issued a statement late Friday noting that the Obama administration has 'serious concerns about the deteriorating security situation in Damascus, including the recent spate of car bombs and about the safety and security of embassy personnel.'

      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/...


      What is necessary to change a person is to change his awareness of himself.
      -- Maslow ...... my list.

      by jamess on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:50:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  A Russian Navy fleet in Syria, to stop any attacks (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jamess

        ...since Turkey is calling for NATO intervention, and Saudi et al are supplying arms to opposition and considering their own military intervention.

        A US invasion of Iran or Syria seems highly unlikely, infeasible.

        But Israel being a loose cannon, could make a provocative limited strike on Iran, going into their own elections, just for show (since they can't really knock out all the widely dispersed, well defended sites), really putting Obama on the spot going into his re-election.

        But then, Iran has an election coming too, don't they?

        The Russians may give Iran their next generation S400 missiles, to better defend from Israeli air strikes.

        Russia and China will block any UN proposals for military action in Iran or Syria.

        Nobody, including Russia and China, wants to see the straight blocked, which would likely crash the world economy.

        Democracy is the most fundamental revolutionary principle.

        by Radical def on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:41:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Project For New American Century Didn't Have a (3+ / 0-)

    plan B. To know what the Republican plan is, I don't know why we shouldn't just read it from PNAC.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:45:55 PM PST

  •  Chickenhawks (5+ / 0-)
    If there's one thing Chicken-Hawks know about, it's about how to put other people's kids into Harm's Way ... whether or not there is evidence to justify the Military action or not.

    Indeed.  And unfortunately, the chickenhawks are not only on the right.  We've got plenty of them here, cheerleading our country into war, offering up other people's children, no skin in the game.

    •  War should always be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joanneleon, elliott

      the ultimate, absolutely unavoidable, Last Resort.


      Sadly to the War planners, in America,

      it has long since ceased being anything closely resembling that.


      If were not careful, we'll soon be planning

      Wars of Convenience.


      What is necessary to change a person is to change his awareness of himself.
      -- Maslow ...... my list.

      by jamess on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:01:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  A US president cares about $200/barrel oil (0+ / 0-)

    It remains to be seen if the Israeli PM does or not.  It would be a political poison pill for a US president to suggest that whatever Iran is working on requires our military to embark on an adventure that would immediately cause us all an unimaginable degree of pain at the pump...not to mention what oil prices that high would do to the global economy.

    Israel already believes the whole world hates them, so might be willing to risk the additional international resentment that a military strike by them, and the resulting effect on oil prices for the whole world, would cause.  They would prefer that someone do it for them, so they don't have to shoulder that blame by themselves, but if nobody (United States) raises their hand and volunteers to do it for them, I'd make it an even bet they would go ahead and pull that trigger on their own.

    "By your late thirties the ground has begun to grow hard. It grows harder and harder until the day that it admits you.” Thomas McGuane, Nobody's Angel

    by Keith930 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:18:41 PM PST

  •  The other factor that Israel is probably weighing (0+ / 0-)

    is that an attack on Iran, regardless of its effect on oil prices and the global economy, would provide no opportunity to Israel for expanding its borders and appropriating more land.

    "By your late thirties the ground has begun to grow hard. It grows harder and harder until the day that it admits you.” Thomas McGuane, Nobody's Angel

    by Keith930 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:22:37 PM PST

  •  Vietnam revisited? I think so! We never learn.n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamess

    "There is nothing new in human affairs. It is only history with ignorance in between." - Harry Truman

    by John Crapper on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:40:49 PM PST

  •  Regime change is the long term goal (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BigAlinWashSt, jamess, elliott

    and the primary reasons are basically the same as they were in 1953. The tactics are very similar to those applied to Iraq for many years prior to the invasion and occupation of that country. The results there were obviously not as great as the policy elites had been hoped for.

    Both Israeli and US officials now have said that "Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program and has not taken any decision towards a nuclear weapon program."

    Yet the propaganda blitz continues. An Israeli reporter for the NYT has come up with a new pitch now that it has been made clear that Iran has no nuclear weapons program.

    Isabel Kershner now writes that Iran "is working to develop a weapons program."

    The propaganda will continue. They never give up. The public has been shown over and over again to be very gullible. Just ask anyone on the street about "Iran and the bomb".

    “Humankind can not bear very much reality.” - T.S. Eliot

    by truong son traveler on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:58:16 PM PST

  •  STay tuned on this one. (0+ / 0-)

    I will.  If the economy goes deeper into the dumper as we approach November, if the election starts to seem less secure (than it does tonight), Obama might try to go for an Iranian Hail Mary.

  •  US appears to be having private or third party (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamess

    conversations with Iran already.  According to IBA TV even Israeli pols are no longer claiming iran is trying to build a nuke.

  •  More than C-Hawks, a clash of vested interests on (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    joe wobblie, jamess, elliott

    many sides can cause a disaster.  Political interests in the US , Iran and Israel all have vested interests in raising the specter of foreign threats in order to distract attention from domestic unrest, and it is in the  economic interests of both  the "drill, baby drill" crowd in the US ad of Iran (as an oil producer) to have treats to the Straights of Hormuz raise the price of oil:  the US gang gets to say that their projects are necessary, while Iran gets to charge more.

    This is a game of chicken that could get out of hand very quickly, as the side are not coordinating with each other.  We'd be better off if there was an international conspiracy running the show; at least that would be a little predicable.

    I went into this in more detail my postUS-Iran Tension Spreading Worldwide.

    Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. -Frank Zappa

    by TheGrandWazoo on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 04:55:01 AM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site