Woo hoo! (Eric Thayer/Reuters)
On Jan. 20, the
headline at Gallup's website was:
Romney's National Lead Down to 10 Points
Mitt wishes that were still true, because just three days later, and one Sunday after his disaster in South Carolina, Romney's lead is down to a statistically insignificant one:
Now this is a five-day tracking poll, which still includes numbers as far back as the 18th. In other words, only one of the five days is post-South Carolina, suggesting that Gingrich has surged massively the last day or two.
Is there caution in the numbers? Perhaps. Look at the general election trial heats:
Whatever general election advantage that Romney had over Gingrich is erased. Right now, they both do equally well against Obama. If nothing else, this erases Romney's "electability" argument in the primary.
That doesn't mean that Gingrich won't be the better general election candidate for us. He will be. By a mile. If nothing else, he'll motivate every Democrat to get engaged. But it does mean that we can't take anything for granted, no matter who the Republican primary electorate pukes up.
12:53 PM PT: The general election trial heat numbers are from mid-December. I'm not sure why Gallup would include them in the same sidebar as the new numbers, with the poll dates from the last five days. But whatever the reason, those are obviously outdated.