Conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney has a far better organization than Newt Gingrich, and that’s a big part of why he’ll be the nominee. The coming terrain is supposed to benefit him, too. One friend of mine who's an expert at watching polls, Tweeted the other day,
You look at the contests coming up after Florida... Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine... Caucuses, West, and North... Mitttown, USA
and
Keep in mind, the Florida electorate is more "moderate/liberal" by about 8-10% than South Carolina.
But I think Gingrich, while not the future nominee, does have a good shot at Florida, Maine, and even Nevada and Colorado. I'm basing this on tea party organization, foreclosures, and Latino voters.
Keep in mind that these are topline, gut-based thoughts. This isn’t a data or poll-driven diary; just something to get me back in the blogging swing after an 18-month career-forced hiatus. I’m going to post some environmental diaries in coming days on a new account under my own name (waiting for the week-long freeze on the new account to pass), and start commenting more as well. But anyway, the potential Newt states:
- Florida – Maybe Florida is 10% more moderate/liberal than South Carolina. But remember this: Governor Charlie Crist had to leave the party to get on the state's general election ballot in 2010. Florida's GOP voters took the right-winger over the moderate, and even though it’s not true, right now Romney is known as the moderate and Newt as the right-winger.
Newt may not make a play in Florida if he doesn’t break out after the first of the state’s two debates; his staff says that given the winner-take-all rules, it may not be worth the money. Fair enough. But if Newt has a third strong debate in a row tonight – and given today’s Romney Freddie Mac news, I think he will – look for him to play hard for the state that elected Marco Rubio and Rick Scott.
- Maine – This is both a northeastern and a caucus state. Advantage Romney, right? But remember this: In 2010, the tea party took over the Maine Republican Party at the annual convention. The official party platform now
calls for the elimination of the Department of Education and the Federal Reserve,… suggests the adoption of ‘Austrian Economics,’ declares that "’Freedom of Religion' does not mean 'freedom from religion' (which I guess makes atheism illegal), insists that ‘healthcare is not a right,’ calls for the abrogation of the ‘UN Treaty on Rights of the Child’ and the ‘Law Of The Sea Treaty’ and declares that we must resist "efforts to create a one world government.
And how 'bout this Wonkette headline? "Maine GOP Warns Voter Registration Is Evil Homosexual Plot." Also, they elected Paul LePage. Even Olympia Snow’s been running to the right in fear of a primary challenge. That sound like a Romney state to you?
- Nevada, Colorado – These are going to be tough for Newt. They’re both caucus states, which is where Romney’s organizational edge comes in. But remember the Hispanic vote. I don’t know how much of it is registered Republican in these two states - not much - but Nevada Republicans have certainly been making a post-Angle push for the state’s Hispanics. And more importantly, Newt’s rhetoric is a bit more humane on the issue than Romney, after the South Carolina. (Much of this probably applies to Florida, as well, although the Latino population there is known to be Cuban-American more than Mexican-American.)
Nevada also leads the nation in foreclosures, and the aforementioned Romney Freddie Mac News counters Gingrich's tenure with them. It certainly doesn't help the rich guy who said, "Don't try and stop the foreclosure process. Let it runs its course and hit the bottom." Romney may still have the edge here, but don’t rule ol’ Newtie out.
Romney will be the nominee. He will outperform Newt on Super Tuesday. But if Newt takes some non-southern states, he’ll push this contest on for a few more weeks. And the more populist attacks on Romney that Independent voters hear from unexpected sources (ie, not Democrats), the more the out-of-touch truth will out and the better off the country will be.
This is my first diary on Daily Kos in a long time – and also my last under this name. As with my MyDD frontpage blogging a couple years back, I want to move to my real name, so I’ve started a new account under the name Nathan Empsall. Sucks to give up TU status and diary/comment/ID stats that show I’m no troll, but whatever. Worth it.