Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning.
Sign up here.
Leading Off:
• AZ-04, AZ-01: Hah, this is pretty entertaining:
Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar asked House candidate Paul Babeu to run in his home district as far back as the fall in order to avoid a Republican primary, both campaigns confirm to POLITICO.
But Babeu, a Pinal County sheriff and Iraq war veteran, told Gosar he was "insane" and began preparing for a campaign in the new 4th District.
"I looked at him and said, 'Are you insane? I don't live there. That's your district.' And he said, 'Paul, you're a rock star. You can win this seat. You're law enforcement and you're military. "I said, 'Paul, the best person to defend District 1 is the District 1 congressman,'" Babeu recalled in an interview with POLITICO Tuesday.
"I saw somebody who is frightened, who is more interested in his own political future," he said of a conversation that he recalls began in October. "He was trying to clear the field. So whatever he wanted to do, everybody defers to him. Well, that's not how America works. He may be a congressman, but to come in and think he's just going to tell people what they're going to do, that's now how this process works."
4Q Fundraising:
• TX-Sen: Ted Cruz (R): $1.1 mil raised, $2.9 mil cash-on-hand
• VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D): $1.65 mil raised, $3.3 mil cash-on-hand
• WV-Sen: Sen. Joe Manchin (D): $495K raised, $2 mil cash-on-hand
Senate:
• MN-Sen: PPP tests the Senate waters in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and finds, as usual, that Democrat Amy Klobuchar is in excellent shape as she heads for re-election this year. Perhaps more interestingly, her junior colleague Al Franken, who won by a famously small margin in 2008, looks surprisingly good in 2014 against two of Minnesota's sorry-ass presidential also-rans: Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty. Click the link for our full post with all the numbers at Daily Kos Elections.
• NY-Sen: After peddling a mountain of bullsh*t about the origins of an entire blog's worth of junior-grade Maxim-style posts that were lurking in plain sight on his company's website, TheLadders.com founder Marc Cenedella finally decided he could say with certitude who was responsible… and the answer is "himself." Cenedella still claims he doesn't know who wrote what, trying to put most of it on a deceased former roommate. He also accused Dem Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's campaign of feeding this story to the New York Times; probably right, since I doubt fellow Republican George Maragos has the chops to suss something like this out. But best of all, he attacked Gillibrand for waging "a smear campaign against a private citizen." Homey, you have no idea what's coming, do you?
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: Talk about getting an early start: Even though Bobby Jindal was just re-elected to a second term last November, Agriculture Commissioner Mike Strain says he plans to run for governor when the seat is next up (and Jindal is term-limited out) in 2015. I suppose he might also be jockeying for position in case, say, Mitt Romney taps Jindal as his VP nominee and wins, but that's not looking especially likely at the moment.
• MD-Gov: If you are interested in getting an early read on the 2014 gubernatorial race in Maryland (which will be an open-seat affair, since Gov. Martin O'Malley will be term-limited), this Baltimore Sun piece has a roundup on some of the key players and how much money they've been raising. The big dog in terms of cash-on-hand is AG Doug Gansler, though Howard County Executive Ken Ulman, state Comptroller Peter Franchot, and Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown are all amassing serious warchests. All of these men, by the way, are Democrats: Republicans have only held the governor's mansion for a single four-year term in the last forty-plus years. (Trivia: The last Free State Republican gov before Bob Ehrlich? Spiro Agnew.)
House:
• AL-05: This may be the lulziest poll of the cycle so far. As you know, turncoat chump Parker Griffith, who got spanked in 2010's GOP primary after switching parties months earlier, somehow figured it would be a good idea to stage a comeback… yes… in the GOP primary. Well, the guy who thoroughly whomped Griffith last time, Mo Brooks, is out with an internal from Public Opinion Strategies showing him with a comical 71-14 lead over the hapless ex-congressman. I just hope someone titled the polling memo "Parker Griffith Can Lose."
• AR-02: Former state Rep. Jay Martin tells Max Brantley of the Arkansas Times that he's actively considering a run against freshman GOPer Tim Griffin, making him the first Democrat to even get this far along the decision-making process. Martin's last bid for public office was an unsuccessful run for the Lt. Gov. nomination 2006, where he finished a very distant fourth. The man who won that primary (and later the general), Bill Halter, has also had his name tossed around by the Great Mentioner for this race, but so far as I'm aware, hasn't made any public statements about a possible run.
• AZ-08: You can cross a couple of names off the list to replace Rep. Gabby Giffords: Former Arizona Gov. and current Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano says (through a spokesman) that she has "no intention" of running for Congress. (Didn't even realize anyone was asking her.) More plausibly, Giffords' husband, recently retired astronaut Mark Kelly, confirmed that he won't run this year, either. (An earlier report in Politico cited an unnamed Giffords aide who said the same thing.) However, Kelly didn't rule out a bid for office in the future. Also on the Democratic side, Roll Call mentions one new possibility: Pima County Supervisor Ramon Valadez.
Meanwhile, Politico's Jonathan Allen makes a heads-up catch: Jesse Kelly, the 2010 GOP nominee who nearly defeated Gabby Giffords, has filed a new statement of candidacy with the FEC, designating his existing campaign committee as one he plans to use for the 2012 elections. Kelly had launched a rematch bid almost immediately after he lost last time but suspended his campaign after Giffords was shot. A spokesman said just the other day that Kelly had been living and working in Texas but still owned a home in Arizona, so presumably this means he intends to return and run in the special election.
For our super-comprehensive canvass of the potential special election candidate field, see this post.
• CA-01: I had sort of been wondering whether retiring Rep. Wally Herger's attempt to coronate a successor in the form of state Sen. Doug LaMalfa would actually work. It turns out the answer may be "no." Former state Sen. Sam Aanestad is reportedly exploring a bid and could join LaMalfa, the man who took over his Senate seat in 2010 after Aanestad was term-limited out, in the Republican primary. Aanestad also made a failed bid last cycle to wrest the GOP Lt. Gov. nod from appointed incumbent Abel Maldonado (who later lost to Democrat Gavin Newsom).
• CA-21: We finally have a candidate! John Hernandez, the CEO of the Central California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, announced on Monday that he'd join the race for the open 21st Congressional District—a very competitive and winnable seat but one where Team Blue had struggled to find a standard-bearer after state Sen. Michael Rubio dropped out. Republican Assemblyman David Valadao has had the field to himself and has been raising a lot of money, something Hernandez recognized when he said: "We have a lot of catching up to do with Valadao." Meanwhile, another Democrat, former state Sen. Dean Florez, still hasn't made up his mind. In a three-word email, he said: "Nope. Still pondering." Seriously, dude, time to decide.
• CO-05: So you've probably heard that obnoxious GOP Rep. Doug Lamborn is skipping the State of the Union address. BFD, as far as I'm concerned—haters gonna hate. But what you may not have known is that a few days ago, Lamborn drew a primary challenge from consulting firm owner Robert Blaha, who reportedly may be able to self-fund. So you have to wonder if Lamborn, a widely-disliked guy who twice in three tries has won his party's nomination with only a plurality, is pulling this SOTU stunt because he's concerned about Blaha.
• FL-06: A second Republican has filed to run in the 6th CD in the space of a week, though it sounds like state Sen. Steve Oelrich is pretty convinced his turf will wind up in a new congressional district and not the one currently represented by GOP Rep. Cliff Stearns. (Clay County Clerk of Court Jimmy Jett jumped into the race on Friday.)
• IL-08: Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi just received an endorsement from the 47,000-strong Chicago Regional Council of Carpenters—as well the support of the president of a local teachers union, Mike McGue of IFT Local 504. What's interesting about that second one is that it probably means McGue wasn't able to bring his entire executive committee on board for Raja, but it also probably means his union won't be backing Tammy Duckworth, either.
• IL-10: AFSCME's Illinois Council 31, which represents "100,000 active and retired members," just endorsed activist Ilya Sheyman in the Democratic primary. Last week, a local teachers union, which the Sheyman campaign says is the largest union in the 10th CD, also gave him their backing.
• MI-14: Yet another politician is jumping into the already super-crowded 14th District Democratic primary: ex-state Rep. Mary Waters, who joins Reps. Gary Peters and Hansen Clarke, as well as Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence, who just entered the race the other day. Waters very nearly succeeded in dethroning then-Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in the old 13th in 2008, but Kilpatrick hung on with a bare 39-36 plurality win thanks to the clown-car effect. (Kilpatrick was nevertheless defeated the following cycle by Clarke, who managed the difficult feat of overpowering an even more crowded clown car.) As Kathleen Gray of the Detroit Free Press notes, though, Waters has faced some difficult times since then:
[S]he pleaded guilty in 2010 to a misdemeanor count of filing a false tax return related to a bribery scandal involving her one-time boyfriend Sam Riddle. She tried to withdraw her plea, but the U.S. Court of Appeals affirmed the plea last year and Waters was sentenced to one year of probation.
Peters has to be pleased at this latest development, though: He's the lone white guy in the race, and he's probably counting on a fractured vote in order to win in this black-majority district.
• MO-04: Here's a little more background on Teresa Hensley, the Cass County prosecuting attorney who we mentioned the other day plans to challenge GOP freshman Vicky Hartzler.
• NC-06: The vultures are circling: Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow, who previously said he wouldn't consider a challenge to Rep. Howard Coble in the GOP primary, has reversed course and is now considering the race. Coble, as you know, is 80 years old, has recently had health issues (including a longer-than-expected hospitalization for an unspecified "upper respiratory infection"), raised almost no money last year and has very little in the bank. Plus, his seat was seriously rearranged during redistricting and he now only represents 43% of the new 6th. So even if he does run again, a lot of Republicans who are tired of waiting to move up will be thinking long and hard about trying to take advantage of the situation.
• NY-19: Ah, damnit. State Sen. Greg Ball, who has been hammering fellow Republican Rep. Nan Hayworth relentlessly since at least August (and mostly from the left, too), finally decided that after all that, he won't challenge her in the primary. Instead, Ball plans to seek re-election. Last cycle, he also bailed on a run in the 19th, but once again, Ball's out.
• PA-04: Two more Republicans have entered the race for this newly open seat: York County Commissioner Chris Reilly and attorney Sean Summers. They join state Rep. Scott Perry and police sergeant Ted Waga.
• PA-12: D'oh! Looks like all those supposedly in-the-know sources who claimed Republican state House Majority Leader Mike Turzai would run for Congress didn't know so much after all. But in the end, Turzai decided not to make a bid after all, and seeing as candidate filing began on Tuesday, it would be difficult for anyone else to jump into the race at the last minute. But Republicans do already having someone running here: attorney Keith Rothfus, who ran a strong race in 2010 in the old 4th (which makes up the bulk of this district). Indeed, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette says Rothfus's refusal to defer to Turzai was a key reason he bailed. Considering Rothfus refused to make way for establishment choice Mary Beth Buchanan last cycle (he actually walloped the former US Attorney in the primary 67-33), I can't imagine why Turzai thought he'd behave any differently now.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, here's another big union get for Dem Rep. Mark Critz: He just secured the backing of the United Steelworkers, to go along with his endorsement from the United Mine Workers the other week.
• PA-17: Longtime Blue Dog Rep. Tim Holden may finally be put to the ultimate test this cycle. With the 17th District getting much, much bluer—it went from McCain +3 to Obama +15—it seemed very likely that Holden would face a more liberal challenger in the Democratic primary, and now he is. Scranton attorney Matt Cartwright, who said last month that he was "seriously considering" the race, has now officially jumped in. Cartwright is a first-time candidate but seems to be at least somewhat well-connected. He's also a plaintiff's attorney and may have some personal wealth, though that's definitely not clear. Holden didn't have a ton of cash on hand as of Sept. 30 ($268K), but he's a strong campaign and will have DCCC protection if he needs it, so Cartwright will face what is very much an uphill battle here.
• WV-02: Somewhat to my surprise, state Del. Jonathan Miller followed through on plans he first announced last May and filed to run against Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in the GOP primary. I don't get this, though, because Miller is only 27 years old and raised just $10K in 2011. Since he won't be able to run for re-election, this means he'll get pounded by Capito, piss off the state's most powerful Republican elected official, and probably terminate his career. Is he that bored already? Well, this is probably the best explanation: Last year, when he declared his challenge, he said: "God is calling me to run for this office now. ... And I know he will be with me the whole time."
Other Races:
• NY-St. Sen: No matter how you slice it, Senate Republicans in New York have a huge cash lead over Democrats, something like 5-to-1. Click through for the Albany Times Union's full run-down. (Though I disagree with something PIRG, the group which conducted the analysis, did: They subtracted debts owed from cash-on-hand, which doesn't make sense to me. The whole reason you take on debt is precisely so you don't have to give up your cash.)
• WI Recall: The four Republican state senators who are facing recall elections collectively have quite a bit of cash-on-hand: $734K in total. But the good news is that half of that total belongs to the guy we have by far the smallest chance of taking out, Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald. The rest have from $112-$134K apiece—good change for a legislative race, but not a sum that can't be overcome.
• WV-LG: West (By God) Virginia is one of the few states in the nation without a lieutenant governor elected as such—an issue which came to the fore in 2010 when Gov. Joe Manchin was elected to the Senate. State Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin became acting governor, but the state's high court ruled that his service could only be temporary and that a special election had to be held to fill the remainder of Manchin's term. That's created a pain-in-the-neck situation where two gubernatorial elections will take place in back-to-back years, so legislators are now proposing a constitutional amendment which would create the post of Lt. Gov. (In case you were curious, there are five states with no LG at all, courtesy Wikipedia: Arizona, Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Wyoming. In Tennessee, as in West Virginia, the head of the state Senate serves as LG.)
Redistricting Roundup:
• AZ Redistricting: KingofSpades takes us on an excellent, fact-filled walkthrough of Arizona's new congressional map, complete with statistics provided by DRA.
• ID Redistricting: This is getting juicy. Despite the (Republican) state Attorney General telling them they couldn't do so, Idaho GOPers claim they've gone ahead and removed two Republican members of the redistricting commission they feel have been insufficiently hardline and add that they'll appoint two new members. What's going to make this extra-awkward is that both of supposedly ousted commissioners, ex-state Rep. Dolores Crow and ex-state Rep. Randy Hansen, both say they plan to show up to work at the panel's next meeting on Thursday. So it seems like this whole matter is likely to wind up before the state Supreme Court, which can determine whether Republicans do indeed have the power to replace commissioners at will.
• KY Redistricting: It was less than a week ago that Democratic state House Speaker Greg Stumbo expressed optimism that a quick deal could be worked out with Republicans on congressional redistricting. Now, as the Louisville Courier-Journal's Tom Loftus, both Stumbo and the Senate's lead negotiator, GOPer Damon Thayer, say "there is a growing possibility the two chambers will not resolve their differences and that the matter will have to be resolved in court."
• NY Redistricting: FYI, new legislative maps are supposedly coming out Wednesday morning. They will go up on LATFOR's website. While you wait, you can check out this teaser of what the brand-new, GOP-created 63rd state Senate district will supposedly look like.