I am old enough to make predictions about the future and not loose much if I am a bit off the mark. In this case it seems too easy. I am inspired, in part, by glendenb's diary Swimming in Systems which did not get anywhere near the attention it deserves. He says this:
My point is that Gingrich is riding high right now is the most effective carrier of the Republican Id. Gingrich for all his flaws captures and communicates the frustration of the Republican base.
. This is very important and it may go a lot further than any of us are prepared to accept. In my years of writing and reading here I have come to the conclusion that we are a very arrogant bunch. Not that we don't deserve to be arrogant for we are usually, on the average, a very perceptive and creative bunch. If only the voting public agreed with me we would be home free. But the American political system is a
system. That means more than a single diary or even a book can spell out. I can give a synopsis of what it means and will do so below the break.
First of all the phrase about the "republican Id" may be to trite. It does capture the essence of what we are experiencing. The stability of our political system is very complex and, as far as I know, few who discuss and/or analyze it have any sense of its systematic character. Let me try a very crude example of what I mean. The temperature in my house is relatively constant. This is because it controls either a heating system or a cooling system so that when my internal environment is perturbed it kicks in heat or takes it away and things are stable.
In our country we live according to certain myths. The most powerful myth is that we have a system that allows us to express ourselves at the polls and this is "real" freedom. I like this myth because it is so wrong and yet so very effective. I have observed the system for well over a half century and am more impressed by its effectiveness now than ever before.
In my thermostat analogy things were accomplished mechanically. The real world is complex and mechanical analogies fail to capture its reality. Yet like all simple minded analogies it does capture an idea that we need to focus on. The right/left, republican/democrat conflict is a true source of stability for our system. Not because these ideas reflect reality in any way but because they allow change to be compensated for, usually even before it has a chance to happen!
Let's fast forward to a campaign between Obama and Gingrich. The republican framing machine that has been gaining strength steadily for at least thirty years will pose the election choice to the voters as a choice between "socialism" and American values. I am oversimplifying to save space. You know what I mean. We have been there and done that.
Now what will the "good guys" do to counter this? They will marshal facts and figures and show the voters that republicans are lying. Sound familiar? I am surrounded by people who will tell to how to fold your facts and figures and where to shove them!
Meanwhile Gingrich will lie through his teeth and energize the other side with no trouble as he already has begun to do very effectively. Pundits will tell us and polls will tell us that this is a terrible strategy. Have we not noticed that Gingrich is feeding them what they are so hungry for. This paragon of immorality is feeding them their version of morality and they are gobbling it up!
People sometimes watch four hours of TV in a day. These people are going to worry about reality? I have never had to argue a point as easy as this one for the evidence is just overwhelming. So try to shoot my prediction down if you will, but I don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing!