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To the richest who can advertise longest, the spoils.  That should be Florida's official electoral motto.  After more than a year of saturation marketing, if Romney doesn't beat Gingrich by 20% or more, the momentum effect may be offsetting Romney's millions, even with the early voting lock that the Mittster had going into today's primary here.

The Republican Party was wise to fight back Florida as an early primary state. It is one of the most expensive states in the nation to campaign in, with ads statewide for short-run costing millions.  That leaves candidates building critical mass short of the money to make a successful run here.

The giant senior population has a cadre of Republican voters to go along with Billy Bob, the NRA, and the Teahadis.  Senior voters vote early which nullifies much of the momentum from the prior primaries.

The money does the talking. There are no yard signs here, at least not in the Blue counties of the state. No bumper stickers. No grass roots people yelling on street corners. There are more Allan West stickers from 2010 than Romney 2012 or Gingrich 2012.

The calculation is that it is too expensive to go toe-to-toe on the ground here in Florida. There was some sense in bringing the fights in the primary in states where the cost of doing business, and the distances involved in getting the reach to a wide variety of counties, makes sense.

The net effect is that, other than Miami, whose Cuban population the GOP courts, the heavy presence of Republicans is going to be loaded to the Reddest part of the state from the Panhandle down to Orlando.

The biggest VIP to hit Palm Beach County of late? Michelle Obama.

The Media was trumpeting "Double Digit" leads for Romney.  That should be expected here in a state where Romney has effectively been running since 2008, and has been hitting television, print and the web with saturation advertising for more than a year.

If Romney doesn't top Newt by the high double digits, consider his millions spent here a failure.  If Gingrich pulls to within 12%, the momentum from South Carolina, and Romney's continued vulnerability, will be the story spilling over into Nevada.

The biggest loser today won't be Ron Paul or Rick Santorum. It will be the Florida Republican Party.  It gambled half of its delegates for an early primary only to prove the GOP national folks right: Early voting and its size make Florida a bad choice for an early primary state.  

It will also be the national GOP that loses. Florida has been a big emergency brake on the Gingrich campaign. The whole process then spills into Nevada,  a GOP political desert, filled with the bones and wreckage of a party in disarray after John Ensign's scandals and the failed Teahadi bid of Sharron Angle to take out Harry Reid.

In days of old, after four or five primaries, most candidates moving on to the Presidential Round had the campaign in the bag.  This go-round, the weak Mr. Romney looks to be doing battle clear into the middle of the process.

While some GOP regulars worry about Gingrich's threat to take the fight to the nominating process, trying to garner the anti-Romney forces under one standard-bearer, the truth is that the GOP powers-that-be are praying for Newt to fail. At the Convention, which they control, he will fail.

Gingrich is the Republican Ralph Nader, a spoiler for Romney who will drive the cost of the primary to such levels that the GOP will wander into the general election drained and damaged.  Turnout numbers at all the primaries do not show the momentum wave that Republicans were hoping for.

Mr. Obama has been patiently amassing a campaign war chest that can fund an Armada worthy of Mr. Romney's personal millions and the Wall Street fleet behind Bendo the Waffle Man.

The winner of today's primary, and those of the foreseeable future?  Barack Obama.

My shiny two.

Brian Ross is the managing editor of truth-to-Power.com and a blogger for the Huffington Post. His latest piece is "Will Republicans Take This Pledge? Leave Racism Out of Campaign 2012" at t2P.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Stop totalitarianism in the United States before it's too late. Speak truth to power! - Join me at truth-2-power.com

    by Brian Ross on Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 05:08:31 AM PST

  •  Newt should say: Mitt's campaign = Sherman's march (0+ / 0-)

    Newt is an historian, after all.

    2010: An Unforced Error Odyssey

    by Minerva on Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 05:20:32 AM PST

  •  Nevada is full of Mormons, however, and they will (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP

    offset the Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle wing of the party.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 05:27:22 AM PST

    •  New England is Mitt country but the number (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      zenbassoon

      of delegates available before Super Tuesday are chicken feed.  Newt, the pocket Napoleon, appears to be shooting for some sort of palace coup on Super Tuesday, enough if not to make him competitive, enough to guarantee himself a cabinet post or at least his having input into who gets what in any mitt administration  

  •  No, that won't be the story. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Losty

    The Romney-ites own the media. He never really won Iowa, but the story was "3 for 3" for weeks. THey have created an aura of winner on Romney that is propelling him comletely apart from his positions or ability.

    Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur.

    by MrMichaelMT on Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 05:51:18 AM PST

    •  Too bad... (0+ / 0-)

      FantasyLand's makeover opens this Spring. Participating at it would have been the perfect opportunity for Mitt's people to make that announcement.

      Stop totalitarianism in the United States before it's too late. Speak truth to power! - Join me at truth-2-power.com

      by Brian Ross on Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 07:36:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Newt has kicked the media off the bus literally (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Losty, dougymi, leevank

    not only in FL but also in NV.  He may let them back on in New England but don't count on it.  Even if he let's them back on, his amateur hour (Ted Mack Gingrich? for an obscure reference) antics have pissed them off and they are remembering this is the guy who shut down the government because he was miffed over his seating on Air Force One.  The real Newt, petty, prickly, arrogant, and self important, has reemerged at the most difficult time for him.

    He will soldier on as FL is facing possible casino gambling and Newt's Vegas gambling moguls don't want additional competition so expect Newt to continue the rounds of fundamentalist churches for the moment on the horrors of gambling  

    •  Comment of the day! (0+ / 0-)

      Especially this part:

      He will soldier on as FL is facing possible casino gambling and Newt's Vegas gambling moguls don't want additional competition so expect Newt to continue the rounds of fundamentalist churches for the moment on the horrors of gambling  

      Don't you love the smell of hypocrisy in the morning?

      PROUD to be a Democrat!

      by leevank on Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 07:07:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The true test of FL to a candidate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    leevank

    isn't just money, although that's a big part of it. It's also organization and ground game.  That's why it's important to a candidate to experience a big state with expensive media markets early.  It shows little to win a small primary, a home town primary, or a base caucus state.  Should mitten win this, he'll have been vetted to a far greater extent than anywhere else so far.   I think having a big expensive state early is a necessary evil.  I do agree with the idea that mitten needs to win bigger here to show a true success though.  

    A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

    by dougymi on Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 07:04:31 AM PST

  •  Newt keeps blowing it (0+ / 0-)

    Which is a shame because I so want him to win.  I don't think it'll happen in Florida though I trust PPP and I don't think Romney will win in a blowout.  It'll be a strong single digit victory.  Florida might not be winner-take-all afterall so the full effect of this might not be known.  Momentum will help Romney as the media is ready to annoint him the GOP nominee.  

    Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

    by SoCalLiberal on Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 08:06:32 AM PST

  •  The "reddest" part of Florida (0+ / 0-)

    I believe is actually Clearwater - Naples (SW Gulf Coast).

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