After South Carolina's strong win for Newt, we began to see what Mitt Romney's wealthy donors empowered him to do: by outspending Gingrich 4:1, Romney was able to launch an air war in Florida that decimated Gingrich. Romney's positive ads constituted a small fraction of the media buy, and by the end, Romney had himself a landslide... and sliding favorables that may come back to haunt him in November.
It's not just the partisan Democrats saying that, although we are certainly happy to do so. Check out some of today's commentary and headlines:
The Political Costs of a Nasty Fight (NY Times)
And the very trait that propelled him in Florida — a willingness to descend into the muck and run a relentlessly negative campaign — distracted from his economic-themed argument against Mr. Obama while deepening his rift with some populist conservatives. Should Mr. Gingrich remain a viable enough candidate to stay in the race through the summer, as he vowed on Tuesday, Mr. Romney could be forced to maintain an angry edge that could undermine his appeal among moderate and independent voters — groups whose views of him, polls suggest, appear to have been harmed by the Florida melee.
Florida fight rattles GOP leaders (Politico)
Mitt Romney decisively answered skeptics with a smashing Florida victory Tuesday, but Republican nervousness has already taken a new form: anxiety over the tone of a race that turned ugly here.
After a week in which a cocky Romney taunted Gingrich about his lackluster debate performances and the furious former House speaker suggested that his chief rival was insensitive to Jews and Catholics, veteran Republicans have become nervous that the primary is damaging the party.
S.E. Cupp (conservative columnist): The primary has, in fact, divided the Republican base, and it's shown conservative America to be (at best, mind you) an intellectually diverse group of voters. At worst, it appears confused about who it thinks can best lead the country or beat Obama later this year.
Well that's the best spin possible, but that's all it is. Rather than prepare him, Newt's Bain and tax practices attacks on Mitt, as well as the general nastiness of the campaign is a real risk for Romney, both by making the attack bipartisan and by driving up
Romney's unfavorables.
° Consider that Newt was anything but contrite in his non-concession speech and vow to fight all the way until the convention.
° Consider that Florida turnout was down compared to 2008, whatever that may mean in regard to GOP enthusiasm (as the "out" party, they'll still muster plenty of it in November).
° Consider the graphic (top) about how news coverage has been spiking negative for Romney. In fact, Romney's coverage has been so negative, it's approaching what Obama sees every day.
° Consider the exit polls, via Rachel Maddow, that suggest 4 in 10 GOP primary voters prefer someone else:
Florida exit polling, via MSNBC
In Romney's Big, Decisive Win, he only hits "51% are satisfied with the current candidates"? That can't be good for him.
You'll hear tons of happy talk from Republicans about how simply running against Obama will unite all Republicans in the fall. While superficially true, and with questions about enthusiasm, the real downside isn't with Republicans who, and let me bold this for the slow pundits out there, are never numerous enough to win elections.
Elections are won by moderates and leaners. This is where Romney will take his lumps, and that's where the Republicans are taking their hits as well.
It isn't the gloves that came off in Florida, it's the mask, and that's what's gotten Republicans really nervous.