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The Beltway conventional wisdom:

If Obama is on the rebound, someone forgot to tell swing voters in the most important up-for-grabs states in 2012.

The idea is that while Obama may be up nationally, he's lagging in the battleground states. But is that true? It's not. You'll see why below.


poll trendlines: Obama 45.3, Romney 45.1
It looks like the week of GOP primary campaigning in Florida didn't help their chances in the state.


Ohio poll trendlines: Obama 46.2, Romney 42
That's a solid, and consistent, Obama lead—surprising in a state that has already seen a great deal of activity from the conservative Super PACs.


Pennsylvania poll trendlines: Obama 42.5, Romney 35.1
It's not as if Obama is beloved in the Keystone State, but damn, look at Romney. He's got a long way to climb to get to 50+1 percent in this must-win state for Republicans.

More state results below the fold.


North Carolina trendlines, Obama 43.9, Romney 46.5
Finally! A Romney lead somewhere.


Wisconsin trendlines, Obama 47.6, Romney 39.3
Nothing there to get Team Red excited. In fact, if I were them, I'd be extra worried about the recalls coming up. Because whatever mojo they had in 2010 is long gone.


Virginia trendlines, Obama 44.8, Romney 43.5
The GOP can't win without Virginia. That this southern (but rapidly changing) state still sports a narrow Obama lead is terrible news for the GOP's fall chances.


Nevada trendlines, Obama 45.6, Romney 41.1
Give Obama the obvious edge, in a state that is getting bluer by the day.


Michigan trendlines, Obama 46.8, Romney 40.9
This one is already getting away from the GOP, and that's before Team Blue reminds Michigan voters how Mitt Romney wanted to destroy the state's now-resurgent auto industry.

Colorado doesn't have any data since early December, when Obama led narrowly. Nothing recent in Iowa, either, when the race edged in Obama's favor, or New Hampshire, where Obama was closing a wide deficit near the end of last year.

So look, if the argument is that it's going to be a close race and that the battleground states will be actual battlegrounds, then no argument. This election isn't in the bag. But the notion that Obama is lagging is patently absurd, and not backed up by the data.

As things currently stand, Obama has the narrow edge in most of these states, and within striking distance of the rest. Sure, it would be nice if he was over 50 percent in states adding up to 270 electoral votes, but that was never going to happen.

But now's the time to sit back and watch the Republicans annihilate each other, stockpile material for our own attacks, and get ready to hit them the second Romney emerges as the official nominee. And if a miracle happens and Romney's not the nominee? Even better.

Originally posted to kos on Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 12:57 PM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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