You still have Newt to kick around. (Eric Thayer/Reuters)
Despite a dismal showing in yesterday's contests in the Republican presidential primary, Newt Gingrich seems
committed to staying in the race, focusing on Ohio with a two-day swing across the state. A decent showing in Ohio on Super Tuesday, along with his home state of Georgia, could help him last out the race to make it to the conservative southern states, where he should have an advantage.
But last night a new threat to that strategy emerged in the form of Rick Santorum, who won over the tea party and conservative voters, the same group Gingrich is vying for, in last night's contests. Public Policy Polling previews the potential match-up of Santorum and Gingrich with these voters in North Carolina, throwing Mitt Romney into the mix. As of now, Gingrich has the advantage with ultra-conservative tea party voters in the state.
Santorum fared poorly in both the South Carolina and Florida primaries, finishing a distant 3rd with 17% and 13% respectively. And our newest North Carolina poll finds him running behind there too. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are tied for the lead there at 30% with Santorum back at 20% and and Ron Paul in 4th at 11%. [...]
Gingrich is holding up better in North Carolina than he is elsewhere because he's still winning Tea Party voters and those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' two groups whose support he lost to Rick Santorum in the states that voted last night. He gets 35% of the Tea Party vote to 25% for Santorum and 21% for Romney in the Tar Heel state. Romney wins moderates (41-21 over Gingrich) and voters describing themselves as being only 'somewhat conservative' (36-30 over Gingrich.)
Santorum's momentum coming out of yesterday's contests, and his favorability, could cause Southern conservatives to give him a second look. Those decisive wins over Romney definitely change the "electability" lock Romney's had on this race. North Carolina is a long way off, not until May 8. If last night is any indication, plenty can happen between now and then.
With the kind of money Gingrich's sugar-daddy, Sheldon Adelson, has to throw around, it could be a very wild ride.