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George Washington Masonic National Memorial, Alexandria, VA
George Washington Masonic National Memorial, Alexandria, VA
Quinnipiac. 2/1-6. Registered voters. MoE ±2.5%; for GOP primary ±4.2%. (12/13-19 in parentheses):
Tim Kaine (D): 45 (42)
George Allen (R): 44 (44)
Undecided: 9 (12)
Almost all polling of the Virginia Senate race, between Democratic ex-Gov. Tim Kaine and Republican ex-Sen. George Allen, has shown a virtual tie. Today's release from Quinnipiac is, well, no exception. However, there's a positive trend at work here, with a net gain of three points for Kaine, turning a 1-point deficit into a 2-point lead. (I don't know if we can quite call that a trend yet; PPP had Kaine opening up a 47-42 lead in their last poll of the race, but that was back in December, around the same time as the previous Quinnipiac poll that gave Allen the small lead.)
Barack Obama (D-inc): 47 (42)
Mitt Romney (R): 43 (44)
Undecided: 5 (7)

Barack Obama (D-inc): 51 (46)
Newt Gingrich (R): 37 (41)
Undecided: 5 (6)

Barack Obama (D-inc): 49 (--)
Rick Santorum (R): 41 (--)
Undecided: 5 (--)

Barack Obama (D-inc): 47 (--)
Ron Paul (R): 40 (--)
Undecided: 6 (--)

I'm more inclined to think there's some slight but real movement in the Dems' direction in the Old Dominion because it's even more pronounced at the presidential level, with Barack Obama sporting a net gain of six points in the same sample, turning a 2-point deficit against Mitt Romney into a 4-point lead. (There's a clearer explanation for the Obama movement, between perceptible economic improvement over the last few months and Romney finally getting turned into a pinata, thanks to the GOP primary; Kaine might be riding those coattails for a smaller gain.) Qpac also polled the GOP primary, though remember Virginia only features Mitt Romney and Ron Paul on the ballot. Romney leads Paul 68-19 there, though a hypothetical version of the whole field went Romney 37, Gingrich 27, Santorum 18, Paul 12 (which seems consistent with Virginia, through the magic of demographics, increasingly turning into the southernmost northeastern state instead of the northermost southern state).

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 01:14 PM PST.

Also republished by Virginia Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Good news (9+ / 0-)

    I live in Northern Virginia and I do not feel southern at ALL.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 01:29:38 PM PST

  •  Their pres primary (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MKSinSA, pademocrat, TofG, stevenaxelrod

    I don't think Romney can win in a Mitt/non-Mitt binary choice envorinment. Between R's who loathe him and crossover chaos, Paul should get the statewide vote.

  •  Kaine making his first gaffe today... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kenneth Thomas, James Allen, Lujane, askew

    ...siding with the religious right over Obama on the birth control thing. I understand why he's caving on this, but it makes him look weak and hurts him in the general, just like it did Deeds.


    by LordMike on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 01:52:49 PM PST

  •  No regional breakdown for this poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod, ScottyUrb

    though given how closeness of both the Senate race and the Obama-Romney matchup, Kaine and Obama must be going gangbusters in Northern Virginia.

    To my mind, this proves that if we carry Northern Virginia, we win the election. If we run it up in Northern Virginia, the Repubs can run the table in the Richmond burbs and Shenandoah Valley and still won't have enough votes to win Virginia. And of course, without Virginia there are no politically realistic paths for the Repubs to get to 270.

    •  That's unusual (0+ / 0-)

      that they don't have geographic breakdown here, because Qpac always does for other states, like FL and PA. At any rate, given the income and type-of-work disparity between NoVa and the rest of the state, you might still crudely generalize that based on the education crosstab: Kaine is up 53-38 among those with a college degree (including 47-45 with whites with a college degree) but Allen is up 47-40 with those with no college degree.

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 05:19:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No we can't win that way (6+ / 0-)

      We can't win if the GOP runs the table in the Richmond burbs. Yes we can get killed in the rurals, Obama did last time except where there were lots of rural black voters and in rural college/university towns.

      But the urban crescent of NoVa/Richmond/Hampton Roads requires a good performance by us to win. "Good" varies in each region. But Obama last time won the major Richmond suburb, Henrico County, and he needed it even if he didn't need as big a margin as he got. Hampton Roads means we do well with white swing voters and gin up black turnout.

      In NoVA, we have to win big. We won Fairfax County, where I am, 60-39 last time, and I'm guessing we'll need that margin just to get over the hump this time because I'm anticipating we don't get the same margin as last time in Henrico and maybe a few other places. But I could be wrong, ultimately Obama is polling as well in Virginia now as he did vs. McCain through the early part of 2008.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 06:26:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA - Gov (7+ / 0-)

    I just finished reading an interesting blog over at Blue Virginia. A progressive posted a UTube of Larry Sabato opening discussing the possibility that Senator Mark Warner might run for Governor. According to Sabato should Mark Warner run and defeat (Ken Coocoonelli?) in 2014 he would then have the responsibility to appoint his own replacement to the US Senate seat he would vacate.

    Warner is said to prefer being Governor to being Senator. I certainly prefer a Gov. Warner to a Gov Ken Cucunelli.

    Thoughts anyone?


    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 05:29:40 PM PST

    •  I was talking about this YEARS ago!!! (7+ / 0-)

      I brought this up in 2008/09...even before Warner crushed Gilmore for the Senate seat, since Warner
      crushing Gilmore was always a foregone conclusion. And I brought it up on my own when there was zero chatter about it.

      Warner would be a shoo-in. Running against him is political suicide. He would crush Cuccinelli and perhaps have coattails to help us in the open A.G. and L.G. races.

      On the other hand, if Warner were to run, that might scare off Cuccinelli and/or Bolling and cause them to just run for reelection, so those seats wouldn't be open. But with Warner coattails and Cuccinelli's toxicity, there's a good chance we'd knock out Cooch and take the A.G. office anyway provided we have a decent nominee.

      Oh, and good chance we'd have House of Delegates coattails, too, although gerrymandering severely limits our potential gains.

      And yes, Warner would get to appoint his own replacement. And I have faith in his judgment that he won't put in someone who won't run or can't win the next time the seat is on the ballot. For the record, I don't know Virginia law on whether there would have to be a special election for the Senate seat after someone is appointed, but the seat is up in 2014 anyway, less than a year after Warner would appoint him/her.

      I would love it if Warner ran. It would be a huge sigh of relief for Virginia Democrats in 2013 and guarantee us a critical share of power in state government.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 06:33:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  And if we win LG position... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, walja, bumiputera

        then we get the working majority in the State Senate and stick it to the GOP like Bolling did to the Dems. And this time there's no Virgil Goode to threaten defection if we don't share power instead.

        Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend It Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

        by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 07:07:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I doubt we can beat Bolling if... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, walja, TofG, bumiputera

          ...Bolling decides to retreat to a reelection bid.

          My hope would be, of course, that both Cuccinelli and Bolling decide they're not patient enough to wait another 4 years and instead insist on giving it a go right away, even against Mark Warner. That's our best-case scenario, we get clean shots at both offices that way and with decent nominees will win them.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 07:35:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Who ought to run for LG for the Dems? (0+ / 0-)

        Terry McAuliffe {he has strong fundraising connections and is a generic Dem pretty much}?

        Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend It Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

        by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 07:11:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  McAuliffe isn't quite generic, he has... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, LordMike, bumiputera

          ...a quasi-Romney problem.

          McAuliffe is a longtime professional political hack, for the good guys yes party leadership as a resume item is viewed by voters derisively as hackery.

          More importantly, his quasi-Romney problem is that he boasts the same kind of "business" background as Romney, as an investor rather than entrepreneur, with failures as well as successes in his background. This stuff doesn't sell like Mark Warner's entrepreneurism in his cell phone start-up years ago. I don't know that McAuliffe ever profited off others' misery like Romney did, and McAuliffe wasn't a private equity manager, but still he was in the investing arena.

          On the other hand, yes McAuliffe will raise obscene money and run a textbook-perfect campaign. But I don't know that he can beat Bolling except with Warner coattails that might or might not be long enough.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 07:34:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Virginia as a northeastern state (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    maybe overall, but not in the Republican primary. Virginia's Republican primary voters must surely still be majority-Southern. 2010 showed us even Delaware is a southern state in the Republican primary.

  •  Lest we forget (0+ / 0-)

    George Allen is still an evil, racist motherfucker.

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