I read a bright suggestion here recently that for the February 28 contests in Arizona and Michigan, Gingrich and Santorum should simply divide up the states in their run against Romney. For example, Gingrich runs in crazy Arizona, Santorum runs in blue-collar Michigan. In this post, I want to see how far they could take this idea. Would it work on Feb. 28? If so, how much would it help them beyond Feb. 28?
The idea of splitting up the states depends on the notion that both Gingrich and Santorum agree that the other of them would make a superior candidate and/or President than Romney. In this "find us a not-Romney" year, that doesn't seem hard to do.
They should let people know that they're doing it and why -- because of Romney's money advantage. He can beat either of them individually the way that he beat Gingrich in Iowa and Florida -- with sheer advertising money. He can also beat them if they both run everywhere, because they're dividing up the conservative vote. The only way they can beat him is to try the strategy of each competing in half of the races, pledging to support each other against Romney at the convention. (Both would endorse Paul in Virginia, where neither is on the ballot. It's safe; Paul's not going to win the nomination.)
Which of them then gets the nomination? They will agree to let the convention decide. If together they have over 50% of the delegates, then they agree to divide them equally (or key the proportion each will appoint to performance in the contests each is assigned), and they work it out themselves without the rest of the convention deciding.
This outcome would help the Republican Party this year by generating interest in their convention, so you may wonder: why am I giving them good advice for free? Simple: while this is their best chance for one of them to win the nomination (or even for both of them to run on the same ticket), I still think that (1) their odds are less than 50% of pulling it off and taking the nomination from Romney; (2) even if it works, neither of them (alone or together) is going to beat Obama; and (3) if it is at all possible to bankrupt the Romney campaign, this is how to do it.
What it will do, and deservedly so, is tear the GOP to shreds -- helping Democrats down the line and down the ballot. (The smart play for Republicans here is just to give up and cede the nomination to Romney and hope that he somehow wins -- but they're not going to go along with that and I can't say that I blame them.)
The best part of this, by the way, is that forcing Romney to compete simultaneously on a national stage with Gingrich in some states and Santorum in others is like tying his shoelaces together. (And he's sort of a klutz to begin with.) Everything he says anywhere will get covered nationally. Each of them can bait him into saying something in their region that will help the person in the other region; they have to get used to the idea that they are both part of one "party-within-a-party" and that they are, at least through the first ballot, sharing the delegates. In fact, I will begin referring to their de facto joint candidacy, where appropriate, by a single name: Newtorum. Baiting Romney into a gaffe that helps either either Gingrich or Santorum helps "Newtorum." (And will Romney stumble into one gaffe -- or many? Surely so. It is his destiny.)
So, Newt and Rick: pay attention, I'm offering you good advice here. If you can quell your individual egos a little, I'm going to show you how to beat Romney. In fact, this may be the only way either of you will beat Romney and his minions with the millions.
Here is a list of the remaining Republican and Democratic nomination contests, current as of today. (Hat tip to the redoubtable Josh Putnam at Frontloading HQ, which I've come to rely on for good information this year. He's doing it as a Visiting Assistant Professor, too, which is gutsy. For rules on GOP delegate allocation, you should bookmark this page of his directly. He also explains some of the terms in my complicated final table.)
Tuesday, February 28: Arizona Republican primary, Michigan Republican primary
Saturday, March 3: Washington Republican caucuses
Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday): Alaska Republican caucuses, Colorado Democratic caucuses, Georgia, Idaho Republican caucuses, Massachusetts, North Dakota Republican caucuses, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming Republican caucuses (through March 10)
Wednesday, March 7: Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Saturday, March 10: Kansas Republican caucuses, Northern Marianas Republican convention, Virgin Islands Republican caucuses
Sunday, March 11: Maine Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, March 13: Alabama, American Samoa Republican caucuses, Hawaii Republican caucuses, Mississippi, Utah Democratic caucuses
Saturday, March 17: Missouri Republican caucuses
Sunday, March 18: Puerto Rico Republican caucuses
Tuesday, March 20: Illinois
Saturday, March 24: Louisiana
Saturday, March 31: Arizona Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, April 3: Maryland, Texas, Washington DC, Wisconsin
Saturday, April 14: Idaho Democratic caucuses, Kansas Democratic caucuses, Nebraska Democratic caucuses, Wyoming Democratic caucuses
Sunday, April 15: Alaska Democratic caucuses, Washington Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, April 24: Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
Saturday, May 5: Florida Democratic caucuses, Michigan Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, May 8: Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
Tuesday, May 15: Nebraska, Oregon
Tuesday, May 22: Arkansas, Kentucky
Tuesday, June 5: California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota Democratic caucuses, South Dakota
Tuesday, June 26: Utah
The decisions regarding who competes where for everything after March 17 can be somewhat fluid for now; until Illinois on March 20, who runs where is either obvious or necessary. A couple of guiding rules: Gingrich runs in the South (and I'm going to throw in the Southwest); Santorum runs in the Midwest and Northeast. What about the west coast? Well, winner-take-all California -- where they finish Romney off -- is a long ways off.
While some think that Santorum could do better in Arizona and Gingrich in Michigan, I disagree. Santorum, as a earmark-gobbling Pittsburgher, will play well in Michigan, which like Minnesota has a very socially conservative Republican party. Even within the GOP, Michigan is class war; lots of "Reagan Democrats" live there who won't like Mitt and will like either Newt or Rick. Based on his performances in Iowa and Minnesota, Rick seems like the better choice.
Newt, as a blustering visionary crackpot, seems like the better fit for get-rich-quick Arizona. Yes, there are a lot of Mormons there -- but probably many more non-Mormons, many of whom resent Mormons. The double-Catholic ticket with prominent Protestant support could turn Arizona into the sort of religious war which much of the GOP richly desires. Now, which of them could pull off that sort of brutal suicide mission? The one with the thicker hide -- and that's Newt.
(Of course, they could also play a trick on Mitt and switch states after Romney's ads attacking one of them are already locked in. That would be clever, but hard to time -- unless they just told people in both states not to vote early and that final instructions on which of them to vote for in which state would come to them in church on the Sunday before the election. Heh-heh.)
What about Washington? My bet is that the Gingrich component of Newtorum would play better there, where the GOP is tax cut crazy, but I'm sure that they could work this out. Whoever doesn't take that state has more time for the others on Super Tuesday.
That brings us up to that day's contests: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming. Looks complicated, but isn't really that much. The trick will be getting Gingrich to commit himself firmly enough to Newtorum to give up on Ohio.
Again, neither of them will compete in Virginia -- but Romney will have to, because both of them will be supporting Ron Paul, and Paul is smart enough to concentrate his efforts in Virginia if it's his best chance to win a state, especially given that his exceeding 50% gives him all of the marbles.
One reason I suggest that Gingrich to be the guy for Washington state is that from there it's an easy trip to Alaska, where Sarah Palin has already decided that he is the anointed one. Romney won't go to Alaska at all -- and if he does, great! For similar reasons, such as the proximity of Spokane to the Idaho panhandle, I think that it would also make sense for Gingrich to take on Idaho.
Gingrich will then take on the South -- Georgia, Tennessee, and I'd say Oklahoma as well. (I'm presuming that Gingrich looks like he'll be the one to take on Texas, given that it's one-third Southern.) Oklahoma is a good place from which to take some trips there.
That would leave Santorum to take on Massachusetts and Vermont in the Northeast (hopeless efforts that they could decide simply to cede to Paul); North Dakota and Wyoming in the "we're sort of like smaller versions of Minnesota and Colorado" areas; and the big prize of Ohio. Santorum could practically camp in Ohio the way he did in Iowa -- and what's Romney going to do about it? Yes, he'll have gobs of ads there, but his command and control structure would be stretched thin. That's a recipe for disaster -- sweet, blessed disaster. Under this scenario -- and probably not if Gingrich runs in Ohio as well -- I think that Santorum beats Romney handily.
After Super Tuesday, the lay of the land from March 10 to 18 -- which I argue should be treated pretty much as a unit -- is Kansas, Alabama, Hawaii (caucuses), Mississippi, and Missouri, as well as the territorial contests: a convention in the Northern Marianas and caucuses in the Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and Puerto Rico.
I think that Gingrich (who will have been busier on Super Tuesday) takes on the territories -- including Guam, when and if they finally set their date -- partly because I have a hard time imagining Santorum talking to anyone from Puerto Rico or Guam and partly because I think that if you're wacky enough to be a Republican from a territory you're going to like Gingrich. Gingrich also takes Hawaii (might as well -- he can fly there once from Alaska) as well as, of course, Alabama and Mississippi.
This again leaves Santorum to concentrate his fire in a smaller number of areas where Romney could be vulnerable. He sort of has to be the one to take on Missouri after his performance in the beauty contest -- and if you're in Missouri, you might as well also be next door in Kansas.
Now we come to Illinois on March 20. Giving up Illinois in top of Ohio would be a hard pill for Gingrich to swallow, but as I'll show he'll be compensated for it down the line. Santorum will already be campaigning in Missouri, next door to most of downstate Illinois; freeing him to focus here while Gingrich clean up in the South and makes forays into later states like Texas and California just makes sense.
Illinois starts the next two-week segment ending on April 3: Louisiana, Maryland, Texas, Washington DC, and Wisconsin. If Santorum takes Illinois, I think he also takes Wisconsin, which in effect is part of the Chicago media market. Newt obviously takes Louisiana; less obviously, I think he also takes DC and Maryland while Santorum concentrates on the Midwest. If the Texas primary stays here -- which due to the redistricting flap I don't think it will -- Gingrich spends most of his time after Super Tuesday focusing there along with the rest of the south and -- here comes the payoff for giving up the Midwest -- California. Either way, he spends a lot of time in both states -- at times when Romney can't.
Then there's three weeks until a significant batch of primaries on April 24: Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Santorum continues dutifully taking on Connecticut and Rhode Island, where he'll get creamed, but also Pennsylvania and Delaware, where he won't. (By then, with Romney bloodied up, Pennsylvania Republicans will forget how much they hate him.)
The only real question here is who takes on New York. I think that Gingrich's style plays better here -- it's a brawler's state -- but Romney's going to have Manhattan sewn up. While Gingrich probably does better downstate, Santorum would do better upstate -- it adjoins Pennsylvania, after all -- so I could make a case for either of them. (Paul will also take his share here. Would it be brilliant to cede this battle also to Paul? Nah, too many delegates available upstate. And at any rate, in the Republican Party New York only has about as many total delegates as Pennsylvania and Delaware combined. The goal here is to make Romney spend his time and money there.)
There are fewer delegates available in New York, in fact, then two weeks later in Indiana and North Carolina, which share May 8 with West Virginia. North Carolina is, of course, Gingrich's state. Indiana ought to be Santorum's -- but he's not on the ballot there. So Gingrich takes them both -- another reason for Santorum to be the one to take New York. Santorum takes West Virginia, most of which is a lot more similar to Pennsylvania west of the Alleghenies and Appalachians than to Virginia. But he also spends his time on the May 15 contests in Nebraska and Oregon, which he takes in part because he's a decent fit for both and in part because Newt will take on the May 22 contests in Arkansas and Kentucky.
What's left? California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota on June 5, Utah on June 26 -- and probably Texas. Of these, Santorum takes Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota, and probably New Mexico -- not a natural fit for him, but less "get-rich-quicky" than Arizona (and anyway, Newt will be busy elsewhere.) Throw in Utah and these five states have roughly the same number of delegates as California. (No, Santorum won't have a prayer for Romney's 40 winner-take-all delegates in Utah and may not even bother to campaign there -- but he may be able to take the 50 "winner take all" delegates in New Jersey, which was yet another neighboring state. If they've been tearing down Romney effectively enough, Chris Christie may not be able to deliver for him.)
California is perceived as being a Romney state where Paul will get a lot of votes. [Note: these next few sentences edited thanks to a mistake found by wu ming.] It's at-large by congressional district, which probably helps Romney in Democratic areas like West LA and maybe Newtorum in Democratic areas like East LA and Oakland. In circumstances where Newtorum has been able to bleed Romney dry (and probably drive him mad), one of them would have a decent shot at most of its delegates. Given the winner-take-all by CD strategy (with so few at-large WTA delegates), this could also be the only remaining state where they both do campaign, with Santorum taking the rural and exurban areas and Gingrich perhaps concentrating on LA, Orange County, and San Diego. That should give Romney fits.
By both schedule and temperament, California ought to be largely a Gingrich assignment, but if Texas gets pushed back this far then maybe Santorum would be the one with the time to complete it. And, if it's the only way to keep Romney from winning on the first ballot, California is the state where both of them endorse Ron Paul, who will probably not have all that many delegates to this point, at least in some districts. (This would be a desperation play -- Paul might go for Romney if he gets to be Secretary of Defense or something -- but it would be better than than a certain loss.) Maybe this is the place to fake with Santorum and then switch to Gingrich.
Josh Putnam at Frontloading HQ, to whom again I want to say I am greatly indebted for doing the grunt work here, has repeatedly asked a question I will paraphrase as "yahbut can anyone tell me how anyone but Romney gets to 1144 delegates?" It's a good question -- and, even sweeter, we may see similar convention fights to the ones Democrats saw in 2008 over whether the states being penalized for early primaries and caucuses should really be penalized after all -- but I think that this is the answer. Newtorum comes in with over 1144 delegates overall, and then -- with the help of those delegates -- they negotiate a ticket.
To summarize, here's the remaining 2012 GOP schedule with Gingrich states in bold, Santorum states in italic, and unclear states in bold italic. Plainface means "concede to Ron Paul." I've added the number of delegates at stake and their rules for apportioning the lion's share of them -- something that would triple the size of this post if I took it seriously enough -- to each. All are primaries unless otherwise stated.
2/28: Arizona (29, WTA), Michigan (30, hybrid)
3/3: Washington caucuses (43)
3/6 Alaska caucuses (27, prop), Georgia (76, prop top 2/CD), Idaho caucuses (32, 80% prop), Massachusetts (41, prop), North Dakota caucuses (28), Ohio (66, CWTA), Oklahoma (43, CWTA), Tennessee (58, CWTA), Vermont (17, CWTA), Virginia (49, CWTA), Wyoming caucuses (29, hybrid)
3/10: Kansas caucuses (40, hybrid), Northern Marianas convention (9?), Virgin Islands caucuses (9)
3/13: Alabama (50, CWTA), American Samoa caucuses (9), Hawaii caucuses (20), Mississippi (40, prop)
3/17: Missouri caucuses (52)
3/18: Puerto Rico caucuses (23)
3/20: Illinois (69, loophole)
3/24: Louisiana (46, hybrid)
4/3: Maryland (37, WTA+CD), Texas (155, prop?), Washington DC (19, WTA), Wisconsin (42, WTA+CD)
4/24: Connecticut (28, hybrid), Delaware (17, WTA), New York (95, CWTA+CD top 2), Pennsylvania (72, loophole), Rhode Island (19, prop)
5/8: Indiana (46, WTA+CD), North Carolina (55, prop), West Virginia (31, loophole)
5/15: Nebraska (35, convention), Oregon (28, prop)
5/22: Arkansas (36, conditional prop), Kentucky (45, prop)
6/5: California (172, WTA+few CD), Montana (26, caucus), New Jersey (50, WTA), New Mexico (23, prop), South Dakota (28, prop)
6/26: Utah (40, WTA), [Texas?]
All in all, Gingrich is competing in states with 825 delegates at risk; Santorum is competing in states with 766; who seeks the 323 combined Maryland, DC, New York, and California delegates is left undetermined; and Virginia and Utah, with a combined 89 delegates, are ceded to Paul if he can get them. Romney, by contrast, has to be in the hunt for all 2012 (presuming that Guam gets 9) additional of the delegates remaining.
That money advantage seems a little less daunting under this scenario, doesn't it?
Note that if Newtorum exceeds 1144 (or whatever) delegates, we have a brokered convention, but not the fun kind where Jeb Bush or George H.W. Bush or Dan Quayle or Chuck Norris comes in at the last minute to save the day. We have a brokered convention between Gingrich and Santorum themselves: they decide, presuming faithful delegates, who the nominee will be.
And, as happened in 2008 once the full horror show of Obama's delegate strategy finally dawned on Hillary's supporters, once they get the momentum going there won't be a damn thing that anyone can do to stop them. Newtorum can control the convention.
If Romney promises to be well-behaved, of course, they might still let him speak.