Southern Arizona Democrats have an excellent opportunity to ensure the seat of former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords remains safely in competent Democratic hands - by uniting behind the candidacies of Ron Barber for CD8 in the April primary and June special election, and then for Matt Heinz for the August primary and November general election. Both are fantastic candidates and will be excellent representatives for southern Arizona in Congress. But the race is also about carefully strategy, something which has been sorely lacking in the Arizona Democratic party, in my humble opinion. This is a unique opportunity to divide and conquer the Republican opposition.
First, and introduction to the Democratic candidates:
Ron Barber in hospital after the Jan. 8 2011 shooting, visited by Giffords intern Daniel Hernandez. Barber was shot in the cheek and leg in the shooting. A nerve in his leg was damaged and he needs a leg brace and cane to walk. Barber said he consulted with his family and seriously considered his health and consulted with his doctors before committing to a campaign, and feels confident he is up to the challenge.
Barber has lived in Tucson since 1959. His wife is a native Tucsonan, and their two adult daughters and their four grandchildren all live here. Barber worked for the Arizona Division of Developmental Disabilities for 32 years before accepting the position of District Manager for Gabby after her first election in 2006.
Gabby & Ron touring the Gabrielle Giffords Family Assistance Center at the Southern Arizona Food Bank on the last day in Tucson before resigning. The center was built and named in Giffords' honor after her husband, Mark Kelly, suggested donations to the food bank in lieu of flowers after the Jan. 8 shooting, resulting in $215,000 in donations:
Ron Barber knows southern Arizona, and knows the issues and challenges we face. He is the person best suited to fulfill the remainder of the term to which Gabby was elected and continue her work. In announcing his candidacy Barber did not rule out running for a new term in the redistricted CD8, reconfigured as CD2, saying "I think it's kind of presumptuous to get out ahead of myself," Barber said. "I've really got to be smart and focus on what's immediately in front of me and that's what I'm going to do. The decision on whether to run for CD2 will come in time, but not now." He would have time to file for the new CD2 should he win the CD8 special election - the special election is June 12 and the last day to file for the Aug. 28 primary for the new CD2 is July 30. But I feel confident this is just strategy, to preempt criticism from Republicans that he is running only as a "caretaker" for the remaining 7 months of CD8, while they are running for the remainder of the CD8 term and a full term in the new district. In any event, I will be supporting Ron Barber and voting for him for the remainder of the CD8 term, but I will be supporting Matt Heinz for the new CD2 primary Aug. 28, and in the November general election.
Meet Dr. Matt Heinz:
Matt is a practicing physician at the Tucson Medical Center hospital, while at the same time representing Tucson LD29 as State Representative. During his professional training at (Michigan) Wayne State University School of Medicine he was granted a fellowship in Vascular Surgery at Harvard Medical School and spent the summer of 2000 conducting stem cell research. Matt has been a progressive voice in the Republican dominated state legislature, and will be a progressive voice in the United States Congress. Matt also happens to be openly gay, which will not be factor in this moderate district. Former Congressman Jim Kolbe held the district for many years as the only openly gay Republican member of Congress. Evangelical Christians are not a force in general elections in southern Arizona, although they, combined with Mormons, do play a larger part in Republican primaries, supporting a candidate too conservative for the general electorate.
Matt and Congressman Raul Grijalva: (Credit: Matt's Facebook page)
As he indicated when he announced his candidacy, Matt dropped out of the CD8 special election yesterday and endorsed Barber, while re-affirming his candidacy for CD2. Other candidates for the Democratic nomination for CD2 may enter, and several names have been mentioned. And when Matt first announced I intended to wait, but have now come to the conclusion he is the best candidate, and support him fully. He's bright and he's young (34) and could have a long, successful career in Arizona politics - possibly in a position to make a run for John McCain's Senate seat in 2016. As McCain will be 113 years old then*, he is likely to retire then.
(* - "113 years old" was not intended as a factual statement)
Divide and Conquer:
There are now 5 announced Republican candidates for the CD8 special election and CD2 general election. Two are "some dudes", and a third is popular political neophyte Univ. of Arizona sportscaster Dave Sitton. His political views are largely unknown and while "moderate Republican" seems to be a discontinued model in Arizona, he is likely to be more moderate than the two strongest candidates - firebrand conservative State Senator Frank Anterior, and Teabagger Jesse Kelly, who lost to Giffords by only a few thousand votes in the 2010 election. The Republicans know that winning the special election will give them a big boost as an incumbent and in name recognition for the CD2 primary and general election. And an important fact is that while CD8 has a +5 R registration advantage, the new CD2 is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, with Independents holding the balance of power. But what will it cost them to win the special primary? The winning Republican will have spent heavily to win the primary, and with 5 candidates will likely win with only 30-35% of the vote, and head into the special election with two-thirds of Republicans having voted for someone else, to face a well rested and well funded Ron Barber, with Gabby Gifford's goodwill behind him. And one other factor is that the supporters of the Republican candidates will be passionate about their candidate - will the supporters of losing candidates vote for the winner of the special primary and give him or her the edge over their favorite in the primary for the new CD2 only 2 1/2 months later? Or will they stay home or even vote for Barber, giving up on the remaining 7 months of CD8, in hope their candidate will win a new full term in CD2? Ron Barber in for the win.
And then we head into the general election for CD2, with a battle scarred Republican having spent heavily already on 3 contests, having mud and negative ads slung at him or her by Republican opponents during those 3 contest, facing popular State Rep. Matt Heinz for an open seat, in a new district that is now evenly split between Rep & Dem. Matt Heinz in for the win.
Team Blue 2, Axis of Evil, 0.
Ron Barber's campaign website: http://www.ronbarberforcongress.com/
Ron Barber's ActBlue Donation page: https://secure.actblue.com/...
Matt Heinz's campaign website: http://www.heinzforcongress.com/
Matt Heinz for Congress on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/...
Matt Heinz's ActBlue Contribution page: https://secure.actblue.com/...