If I had enough of an ego that I felt I had to be right all the time, I would leave Daily Kos Elections until the GOP got around to settling their damned nomination, and then return.
For those scoring at home, as we awoke Sunday morning, there were two things that had become abundantly clear: 1) the Nevada GOP can't count for shit (seriously, get the dudes at the craps tables to do the math, kids); and 2) Mitt Romney had taken control of the Republican primary. After all, Newt Gingrich's post-South Carolina boomlet was officially dead, and Rick Santorum had just faded to a distant fourth in Nevada.
Then three races that were hardly on anyone's radar (Missouri's "beauty contest", coupled with the caucus events in Minnesota and Colorado) conspired to flip the script. Again.
Perhaps, in retrospect, we shouldn't have been surprised. After all, if there has been one consistent facet of the Republican presidential sweepstakes, it was the fact that Mitt Romney has been greeted by the Republican electorate with a startling level of ambivalence. It's not a love/hate relationship, per se. But what it clearly has become is a relationship where the GOP voters vacillate between resigning themselves to a Romney nomination, and becoming greatly enthused by someone ... anyone ... who may present a coherent alternative from the right.
Hell, even the coherent part hasn't been a deal breaker, at times.
The 10th or 11th incarnation of the anti-Mitt belongs to Rick Santorum, who is taking his second turn in the role. Last time around, his boomlet literally lasted less than a week, as the triumph of Iowa failed to translate into anything of note in either New Hampshire or South Carolina. This time around? Too soon to tell, though he is already in a higher stratosphere in national polling than he has ever enjoyed.
That's not all the news this week. Two states that had long been in a stall in the redistricting process essentially closed the books on the process, and redistricting has led to some elephant-on-elephant violence in what promise to be a series of really interesting primaries.
All that (and more!) in this "second wave of Santorum" edition of the Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: Looking at the entirety of the week in GOP presidential polling, you can almost see the progress of the week through the data. The ABC national poll came on Monday, with Romney in a decisive lead, and Santorum still a relatively distant third. The PPP national poll came out this morning. The difference, as you can see, is striking.
There is also some eye-popping data looking ahead to the contests due up in a few weeks. PPP is teasing that their numbers in Michigan, albeit early, look pretty good for Rick Santorum. He even threatens Newt Gingrich in his home state of Georgia in one poll (though not in another). Judging from the raw numbers in this week's post-trifecta polling, this bounce has the makings of being pretty legitimate.
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney 38, Gingrich 24, Santorum 18, Paul 14
NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney 33, Santorum 23, Gingrich 22, Paul 15
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 34, Santorum 24, Gingrich 17, Paul 8
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters): Romney 29, Paul 21, Gingrich 19, Santorum 18
NATIONAL (PPP): Santorum 38, Romney 23, Gingrich 17, Paul 13
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Romney 34, Gingrich 27, Santorum 18, Paul 11
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 32, Gingrich 23, Paul 16, Santorum 16
CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA): Romney 33, Santorum 31, Gingrich 17, Paul 9
GEORGIA (Landmark/Rosetta Stone--R): Gingrich 35, Santorum 26, Romney 16, Paul 5
GEORGIA (Mason Dixon): Gingrich 43, Romney 29, Santorum 12, Paul 6
MICHIGAN (Mitchell Research): Romney 31, Gingrich 16, Paul 15, Santorum 15
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Gingrich 30, Romney 30, Santorum 20, Paul 11
OKLAHOMA (American Research Group): Gingrich 34, Romney 31, Santorum 16, Paul 10
PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research): Santorum 30, Romney 29, Gingrich 13, Paul 9
TENNESSEE (American Research Group): Santorum 34, Romney 27, Gingrich 16, Paul 13
VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac): Romney 68, Paul 19 (Gingrich and Santorum not on ballot)
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: If "big picture" theme number one from this week was the political resurrection of Rick Santorum, theme one-A has been the continued strengthening of Barack Obama's position as he seeks re-election.
Not only has the president's standing in national trial heats continued to improve (what were 1-3 point leads are now 5-10 point leads), but even GOP-friendly outfits like Rasmussen concede that Obama leads Mitt Romney in key battleground states like Florida and Ohio. Perhaps most striking: what was once a modest Mitt Romney lead in his semi-home state of New Hampshire is now a double-digit Obama lead, if you buy stock in this week's poll from the University of New Hampshire.
He's not out of the woods yet, but Barack Obama has to feel exponentially better about his re-election prospects than he did three months ago.
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Obama d. Romney (51-45); Obama d. Gingrich (54-43)
NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (47-42); Obama d. Paul (48-38); Obama d. Santorum (50-38); Obama d. Gingrich (51-38)
NATIONAL (Ipsos): Obama d. Romney (48-42); Obama d. Gingrich (50-38)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Gingrich (46-43); Obama d. Santorum (46-42); Obama d. Romney (49-42)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (51-39); Obama d. Paul (51-39); Obama d. Santorum (52-37); Obama d. Gingrich (54-36)
CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (60-31); Obama d. Paul (60-29); Obama d. Santorum (61-29); Obama d. Gingrich (63-27)
CONNECTICUT (Yankee Institute--R): Obama d. Romney (50-37); Obama d. Gingrich (56-35)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (47-46); Obama d. Romney (47-44)
ILLINOIS (Chicago Tribune/WGN): Obama d. Romney (56-35); Obama d. Gingrich (58-30)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (WMUR/UNH): Obama d. Paul (50-42); Obama d. Romney (50-40); Obama d. Santorum (56-35); Obama d. Gingrich (60-35)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (47-46); Obama d. Santorum (48-46); Obama d. Gingrich (50-45); Obama d. Paul (47-41)
OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama tied with Santorum (44-44); Obama d. Romney (45-41)
PENNSYLVANIA (Franklin & Marshall): Obama d. Romney (41-30); Obama d. Santorum (43-30)
PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research): Romney d. Obama (45-43); Obama d. Santorum (47-43)
VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (47-43); Obama d. Paul (47-40); Obama d. Santorum (49-41); Obama d. Gingrich (51-37)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: If a poll defies every other poll in a race, and shows a surprisingly weak performance for a Democrat, you know it's gotta be Ras. And sure enough, the House of Ras is back for the 2012 cycle. This time, they are in Ohio, where the Ras-sies staked Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown to a mere 44-40 lead over Republican contender Josh Mandel. For a bit of perspective, remember that PPP had Brown leading by eleven points. Quinnipiac also gave Brown a double-digit edge, as well.
Meanwhile, in Virginia, a new Quinnipiac poll looks an awful lot like, well, every other poll taken of this high-profile showdown. In short, this one is a coin flip. Former Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine holds a nominal lead of a single point (45-44) over former Republican Sen. George Allen. This is a slight movement in Kaine's direction from the December Q poll, when Allen led by two percent.
In another Democratic-held (at least nominally) open seat, things look pretty good for the blue team. According to a poll conducted for conservative think tank the Yankee Institute (and conducted by Ras-subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research), Connecticut still leans to the Democrats. Rep. Chris Murphy, generally considered to be the Democratic frontrunner, held leads over either of the first-tier GOP candidates. Murphy led former Rep. Chris Shays by six (45-39) and 2010 GOP challenger Linda McMahon by nine (49-40). The other leading Democrat in the field, former Sec. of State Susan Bysiewicz, was in a toss-up against either of the Republicans (leading McMahon and trailing Shays within the margin of error).
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Democratic prospects in one of the open seats they must defend got a bit more complicated this week. In Nebraska, Democrats learned this week that their most bankable potential candidate, former Senator Bob Kerrey, would not seek the Senate seat being vacated by veteran conservative Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson. It took only a couple of days before Democrats did land a replacement candidate, as university regent Chuck Hassebrook elected to make a bid.
- Meanwhile, one Republican Senate challenger now looks to get a free ride out of the primary season: in New Mexico, Lt. Gov John Sanchez dropped out of the race this week. Trailing badly in early polling, the decision by Sanchez to drop the race is not a giant surprise. But it will allow former Rep. Heather Wilson to save some resources as she awaits the victor of the Democratic primary. There, Rep. Martin Heinrich and state auditor Hector Balderas are squaring off.
- Just out of the medal round of the air ball award, Republican senate hopeful John Brunner in Missouri had a pretty lousy week. Brunner, who has moved into co-leader status in the GOP race with former state treasurer Sarah Steelman and veteran Rep. Todd Akin, played a real-life Mitt Romney caricature, it was revealed this week. While laying off workers in his family-run cosmetics firm, Brunner managed to scrape together enough petty cash to pay himself a salary of over $370,000 per year. Not likely to burnish any "man of the people" credentials for a guy who had been making a big move in that particular Senate race.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: When Barney Frank in December up in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, that led to two fairly absurd pieces of pundit wisdom. One, from pain-in-the-arse former Democratic Rep. Artur Davis, was that this was the first of a tidal wave of Democratic retirements. Two, from a number of pundits, was that this district was a very real pickup opportunity for the Republicans. A new poll of MA-04 by U. of Mass-Lowell this week drove a stake through that particular theory. That poll showed likely Democratic nominee Joseph Kennedy III with a 60-28 lead over Republican frontrunner Sean Bielat. Bielat, you'll recall, came within about a dozen points of knocking off Frank in 2010. Clearly, as this poll attests, this is not 2010.
In other polling news, there might be something useful to be gleaned from an internal poll for the DCCC pitting freshman Rep. Kristi Noem against former Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in SD-AL. The actual trial heat numbers aren't that helpful, of course, given that Herseth-Sandlin elected not to run against Noem (for those who care, Noem actually trailed the Democrat by a 53-43 margin). One has to wonder if the poll will inspire the DCCC to make a play in South Dakota, where the Democrats have a decently funded Democratic challenger in former Tim Johnson staffer Matt Varilek.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Three states put checks by their name this week on the redistricting chalkboard, including one of the biggest remaining players in the game. Florida all but finalized their map late in the week. Our own David Jarman put in serious work placing the entire map into an easy-to-digest format with our very own "cheat sheet" of the new Florida map (complete with new district numbers). The net result? While Florida Republicans tried to cement their new gains, Democrats look to, at worst, claim some territory here. One new Orlando-based district leans heavily Dem, while the nominally GOP new district was claimed by a moving incumbent (Rooney), setting off a game of musical chairs that left a Dem-leaning open seat in south Florida. What was a 19-6 GOP edge after the 2010 debacle looks likely to become a 19-8 GOP edge, and that's the best case scenario for the GOP. With a few key pickups, the Dems could conceivably pull as close as 16-11. Meanwhile, another state quickly wrapped up its process on Friday, as Kentucky broke its logjam and approved a plan. The plan finally agreed upon by a split legislature created what amounted to an incumbent protection plan. This was actually decent news for Democrats, as veteran Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler was the only incumbent remotely threatened in the 2010 elections. Finally, Rhode Island polished off their plan, as well. Little Rhody only has two districts, but there was a fairly significant shift, as potentially vulnerable freshman Democrat David Cicilline got a better district in the bargain. There was also some talk of a "deal" on the disputed redistricting in Texas, but it seems that many of the potential players there were not on board with the Republican Attorney General on that particular map.
- Redistricting played a role this week in making for some very interesting primaries during this election cycle. The first map-based "OMG" moment came on Monday, when freshman Rep.
Brock Landers Ben Quayle decided to challenge fellow Republican Rep. David Schweikert in the newly-drawn AZ-06. Quayle's alternative was to run in the swing 9th district, but instead he bailed for the exponentially more Republican confines of the 6th district, where Schweikert had already staked his claim. That leaves the 9th district as a prime pickoff opportunity for the Democrats. The new map in Florida created some R-on-R fisticuffs, as well, as veteran Republican John Mica will go heads-up with freshman Rep. Sandy Adams in the newly-created FL-07. This is a classic redistricting SNAFU: most of Mica's district was placed into the GOP-friendly turf of FL-06, but his home was drawn into the 7th district. Adams reps more of the 7th district, but Mica has decades worth of chits to cash in, plus a pretty substantial fundraising edge.
- Republicans lost another incumbent this week, with the somewhat surprising news that veteran Rep. Sue Myrick was retiring from her perch in NC-09. This actually might be a second-tier pickup shot for the Democrats--it is actually an inch or two more favorable to the Democrats than the Democratic seats in NC-07, NC-08, and NC-11. McCain carried the district, but by a somewhat modest 54-45 margin.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Over last weekend, PPP took a fresh look at the fortunes of incumbent Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon in Missouri, the first look since the implosion of the campaign of one-time GOP frontrunner Peter Kinder. Nixon has a solid lead over any of his potential Republican challengers, with state auditor Tom Schweich coming the closest at a 48-30 deficit. Republicans will note than Nixon is still not over 50 percent against any of the potential GOP hopefuls. But ... heck ... he's up 18-20 points, and he sits either at 47 or 48 percent. In other words, Nixon is in very solid shape for re-election.
Meanwhile, in the open Democratic seat in New Hampshire, the GOP enjoys an early edge, but with a ton of undecideds that make drawing distinct conclusions a bit tricky. In a new poll conducted by the U. of New Hampshire, GOP candidate Ovide Lamontagne held a six-point lead over Democrat Maggie Hassan. The catch? Lamontagne's lead was a 32-26 lead. Which means that, actually, "undecided" (with 42 percent of the vote) was the actual leader in the poll.
On the primary front, home staters PPP took a look at the potential Democratic state of play in North Carolina, where Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue elected to retire in January. Among the trio of declared candidates, former Rep. Bob Etheridge led the field with 34 percent, with a decent edge over Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton (24 percent) and state legislator Bill Faison (6 percent). Even if other names (like Rep. Brad Miller, a netroots fave) are added to the mix, Etheridge remained in the lead.
Finally, here is a polling data point that is utterly irrelevant to 2012, but enjoyable just the same. If the voters were allowed a "do over" election for governor of Ohio, they'd prefer former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland over current GOP Gov. John Kasich. By twenty points. Strickland would notch 56 percent of the vote, versus 36 percent of the vote for Kasich. Unreal.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- A big surprise out of Pennsylvania on the redistricting front this week. A federal judge ruled midweek that the 2012 legislative elections would be conducted under the old lines, after the state Supreme Court ruled that the state's legislative maps were invalid. This decision will almost certainly be appealed, since there are huge population variances now in those old districts. However, if the decision is upheld, that would be a huge boon for Democrats, who were pretty well hosed in the Keystone State remapping process.
- Also on the subject of redistricting, all you say about this story is: holy crap. If you ever wondered about how dirty the Republicans were willing to play on the legislative redistricting front, read this article about Wisconsin. An eye-opening account, to be sure.
- Speaking of "holy crap", you gotta smirk when we get a real-life criminal conviction for voter fraud, and the politico snagged in the dragnet is, indeed, a Republican. Last weekend brought the conviction of Indiana Sec. of State Charlie White, who was convicted on six separate counts of vote fraud.
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
Were it not for the most outrageously racist television ad in recent campaign history, it would have been an all-presidential week at Air Ball central, where the two leading GOP candidates (and one state party) compete for the honor of making the biggest campaign misstep of the week. Most of the time, I must confess to a favored candidate. This time around? There's enough forehead-slapping insanity to go around.
The Nevada GOP: Remember that episode of the great television drama "The West Wing" where the president asks if anyone knows what "acalculia" means? For those whose geekdom doesn't extend to encyclopedia memories of the greatest political drama of our generation, it means a failure to perform basic arithmetic functions. Taking two full days to count 33,000 votes would ... ahem ... fall into that category.
Former Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI): Hoekstra is the former western Michigan Congressman who is now the nominal frontrunner to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. The race is actually reasonably close in recent polling. Which makes it all the more perplexing why Hoekstra would run such a desperate hail mary of a television spot. If you haven't seen it yet, go check it out. It's that bad.
Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA): Aw, Mittens. What a week you've had, dude. You basically run unopposed in Nevada (I was there for caucus weekend--the only ads on TV I saw were Romney SuperPAC ads), and still did worse than you did in 2008. But the triple loss on Tuesday was something else entirely. But what gets you the nomination for the air ball was the lame-ass explanation for the Santorum trifecta: Santorum didn't play Nevada or Florida like you did, so he could focus on those states? First of all, you have more cash than God. How're you gonna win a national general election if you can't walk and run a campaign in Minnesota and Colorado at the same time? Furthermore, you did campaign in Colorado. Heavily. And you lost anyway. Put simply--your week sucked. Which means now you are back in a familiar position--fighting like Hell to stay the frontrunner. For one of the richest candidates for president in US History, this dude sure can't stand prosperity.
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA): I don't know if the president's decision to offer "an accommodation" on the birth control kerfluffle was meant to trap Republicans into saying absolutely stupid shit about contraception. But if it was, it took about three hours to trap Santorum, who quickly opined that contraception shouldn't be covered by insurance because, after all, it's so darned affordable, anyway. Which allowed smart folks (like our own David Waldman--trust me, click that link) to note that Santorum himself has had other folks pay for stuff that was pretty darned affordable, too. Plus, it gave him an opportunity to shout from the rooftops how much he loathes contraception, which puts him in a position counter to the majority of Americans. In tennis, we call that an "unforced error."