I'm feeling a bit prolific, of late (perhaps a desire to procrastinate on my Master's thesis for a couple more days), and so thought that I'd share my perspective on the 2012 Senate elections with the rest of the DKos community, as well as any Democratic Party strategists reading. Republican strategists, needless to say, need read no further.
Here's the situation in a nutshell: 2012 is a year where the Dems will have to clear a high bar just to stay in the same place. The fact that there are so many first-term incumbents (a legacy of the 2006 Democratic wave election, when Team Blue picked up 6 fresh Senate seats), as well as the pernicious effects of Citizens United, mean that Senate Democrats seeking re-election are going to feel pressure to abandon progressive principles in order to pick up re-election funds.
I, for one, urge them to ignore these pressures, as betraying their core constituency will only end in tears, as learned by individuals such as former Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR):
Given a choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican every time.
(President Harry Truman).
(details below the fold)
Oh, before you continue: this diary will be one part political analysis, one part showing why some of the more endangered Democrats deserve the help of the Democratic base.
In order to run something like a sane analysis, here's how it's going to be. I'm going to put the Senate races into tiers ranked by the severity of the Republican challenge. Once I've examined these, I will also note a few Democratic pickup opportunities. Here are what the tiers will be:
Tier 1: Almost certain to flip red. These are seats such as Nebraska, where only the presence of a popular Democratic incumbent kept the seat blue, and either the incumbent or the popularity has gone.
Tier 2: Favouring a flip, but uncertain. These seats will have some distinguishing features which will lend themselves to a conclusion that these seats aren't unsaveable for Team Blue.
Tier 3: Coin-flips. Seats in this category don't favour one side or the other this election cycle, at this time - but anything can change this.
Tier 4: Likely retentions. Here, Team Blue can perhaps feel a bit safe. Whether it's due to a generally blue tinge of the State, or the popularity of the incumbent, or for some other reason, so far it looks like this seat will still have a Democrat sitting in it come 01/13.
Tier 5: Safe retention. Here is where Senators like Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will go. They're popular, sit in blue states or are long-term incumbents - at least two of these three.
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TIER 1: Near-certain losses. (Total: 1)
Nebraska: The retirement of two-term Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) has all but sealed the loss of this seat to the Republicans - not that Sen. Nelson was exactly a shoo-in for a third term in any case. While University of Nebraska regent Chuck Hassebrook was quick to step into the race to replace Senator Nelson on the Democratic side, the heavy red tinge of Nebraska (McCain 57% in 2008) and the presence in the race of popular Attorney-General Jon Bruning on the Republican side has made this race a steep uphill fight for Mr. Hassebrook, at best.
TIER 2: Tough fights. (Total: 3)
Missouri: First-term Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) only narrowly beat Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Talent in 2006, and has maintained a fairly low profile on most issues since being elected. One notable issue of hers is the minimum wage - one of Sen. McCaskill's first actions in Washington was to support an attempt to raise the national minimum wage for the first time in 10 years. Senator McCaskill also raised a record of grilling Pentagon officials in particular about the efficiency of military spending structures, and supported governmental ethics reform with Sen. Landrieu (D-LA) and Rep. Cao (R-LA) after an audit revealed severe mismanagement in FEMA's New Orleans office's accounts.
While Sen. McCaskill was wrong-footed by the airplane property tax scandal of 2011, she quickly owned up to an oversight in the management of the aircraft, and pledged to make up the delinquent amounts immediately - however, the Missouri GOP has used it to make her life tougher, and recent polls from PPP place her in a tie with any one of her three prospective Republican opponents in November.
Montana: First-term Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) was elected in 2006 with a strong Democratic tailwind, and has surprised many political observers by taking a quite liberal attitude toward most issues. One area that Sen. Tester has refused to compromise on in particular is the need to reform governmental ethics, specifically the ethics of elected officials. Montana being a red-leaning State, he's going to have a fight on his hands in 2012 (and the Republicans, who have steadfastly resisted ethics reform, can be expected to spend heavily in Montana to put him out of their misery), but the DSCC is hopefully smart enough to see what they'd lose in his defeat and offer plenty of help.
North Dakota: The retirement of four-term Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) has placed this seat high on the GOP's target list - and they can only have been emboldened by the hard lurch to the right North Dakota took in 2010, when Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND) took 78% of the vote to replace retiring Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and the GOP made a clean sweep of North Dakota's statewide offices.
The ND Democrats have, however, fielded a strong candidate in Heidi Heitkamp, who during her tenure as ND Attorney General (1993-2001) notched up big wins against tobacco companies, and strongly supports biofuels, which will almost certainly help in an agricultural State like North Dakota. Hopefully, Team Blue will be able to retain this seat come November - but it won't be easy.
TIER 3: Coin-flips (aka too early to tell): (Total: 2)
Virginia: So far, former Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) and former Senator George Allen (R-VA) have been swapping one and two point leads in the polling for this Senate race. Virginia today is a very purple State, with the liberal north almost evenly matching the conservative south in political strength.
While Gov. Kaine's tenure as head of the DNC was marked by a certain lack of enthusiasm (especially after Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT) brought a lot of oomph to the job), his opposition to the death penalty, support of land conservation and opposition to then-President Bush's budget priorities (Gov. Kaine delivered the Democratic response to Pres. Bush's 2006 SOTU address) augur well for the policies Senator Kaine will support in Washington if elected.
Wisconsin: With Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) is such deep trouble as he is in now, one might be excused for thinking that Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) would be a shoo-in to succeed retiring Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI). Sadly, not: the presence of former Governor Tommy Thompson (R-WI) has dragged this race right into the "too soon to tell" column, although Gov. Thompson's early leads in polling suggest that many Wisconsinites remember his days as Governor fondly.
Rep. Tammy Baldwin is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and votes like it, too. Her election to the Senate would be a huge boost to progressive causes generally, and particularly in the areas of health care and womens' rights.
TIER 4: Lean Democratic - but don't relax just yet: (Total: 6)
Connecticut: The Nutmeg State is, in theory, a Democratic stronghold. But the recent governorship of moderate M. Jodi Rell (R-CT), the re-election of independent Sen. Joe Lieberman (retiring in 2012) and the extremely-narrow victory of Gov. Dan Malloy (D-CT) to succeed Gov. Rell in 2010 all mean that the Democratic edge is less-pronounced that in nearby New York, Vermont or Rhode Island.
The two leading Democratic candidates (Rep. Chris Murphy leading former Sect'y of State Susan Bysiewicz in the primary polls) each lead Republican Linda McMahon; however, Republican former Rep. Chris Shays leads Ms. Bysiewicz in polls to date.
Rep. Chris Murphy is a three-term Congressman who has voted as a progressive Democrat, opposing FISA and offshore drilling, while supporting a public option in healthcare reform, environmental protection and subsidised low-income housing.
Ms. Susan Byciewicz is the former Secretary of State for Connecticut. During her tenure, she focussed heavily on the adoption of technology to reduce the administrative costs of her department and of government generally, and successfully pushed for expanded voting rights for youth. Both Ms. Bysiewicz and Rep. Shays support Wall Street reforms.
Florida: Two-term Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), no relation to Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), is generally described as a "moderate Democrat" - which is to say that he only supports progressive causes 75-80% of the time. Sen. Nelson supported the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell, believes that the future of American strength is in high technology (and hence is a strong NASA supporter) and is generally rated as more liberal on economic matters than social ones.
Thus far, polling in the Sunshine State gives him a lead over near-certain Republican nominee Rep. Connie Mack IV ranging between 1 and 10 points. The fact that the Florida GOP's brand appears to be on the nose here (and Mitt Romney's attack ads can't have helped) may boost Sen. Nelson - but he'll still have to keep a close eye on matters.
Michigan: I love the smell of Republican desperation on the morning air. And former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's (R-MI) amazingly-racist ad attacking Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) simply reeks of it. Perhaps because Sen. Stabenow is between 6 and 11 points ahead of Rep. Hoekstra in every poll in the last year. Either way, count on the Republicans to play every filthy card they can get their hands on here - Rep. Hoekstra's early efforts have set the tone for his campaign - and unemployed, starving people generally want someone to blame for their circumstances. Sen. Stabenow needs to push back, and fairly hard, or else she's going to have a nasty fight on her hands.
Senator Stabenow's time in office has been marked by attention to both idealistic (healthcare reform) and bread-and-butter (aid to US citizens trapped in Lebanon during the Israeli attacks in 2006) issues. She's a well-balanced, progressive Senator, and deserves support - especially after the filth Hoekstra is flinging at her. His campaign reminds me of Sen. Chambliss (R-GA)' attacks on Sen. Max Cleland (D-GA) in 2002, when Sen. Chambliss (a draft-dodger) accused Sen. Cleland (a Vietnam veteran and triple-amputee) of cowardice. Such attacks deserve to live in infamy.
New Jersey: Under most circumstances, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) should be fairly safe, and he does- thus far, at least - lead Republican Some Guy Joseph Kyrillos by healthy margins. However, the Republican race is still wide open, with Republican State Senator Tom Kean well aware that the GOP nomination is basically his for the asking. If Sen. Kean enters the race, then things change. While Sen. Menendez still leads Sen. Kean, it's by much smaller margins of between 2 and 5 points.
To be perfectly honest, it's hard to find particularly nice - or particularly nasty - things to say about Sen. Menendez. He seems to be a middle-of-the-road Democrat, and his most memorable positions are his hardline anti-Castro stance on Cuba, and the fact that he has evolved from voting for DOMA in 1996 in the House to actively supporting its repeal in 2009 in the Senate.
New Mexico: Five-term Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) declined to run for a sixth term, and Rep. Martin Heinrich and state auditor Hector Balderas immediately put up their hands to replace him on the Democratic ticket. Thus far, Rep. Heinrich leads Mr. Balderas in the polling for the Democratic primary, which is probably a good thing for Team Blue, as he is also the only Democrat to consistently lead former Rep. Heather Wilson, who is a heavy favourite to win the GOP nomination (Mr. Balderas either leads or ties with Rep. Wilson). Overall, due to the blue tinge New Mexico is taking on in recent years, the smart money is probably on Team Blue to keep this seat.
Rep. Martin Heinrich is strongly pro-choice, pro-environment and pro-LGBT equality. Additionally, Rep. Heinrich supports veterans' healthcare and strongly opposes Republican efforts to secure additional tax breaks for the wealthy.
Mr. Hector Balderas has amassed a track record of cracking down on abuse of governmental grant monies by private-sector companies and has establisheda pro-environment and pro-rural education voting record during his time as a State Senator in New Mexico. Mr. Balderas is paying particular attention to economic issues, promising to strongly support investment in schools, infrastructure and clean energy in order to create more jobs.
Ohio: First-term Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has been a champion of progressive issues since he entered the Senate in 2007. While his support of PIPA has disappointed progressives, his strong opposition to the Iraq War, support of LGBT rights and left his mother's funeral early to become the 60th vote on the ARRA- breaking the Republican filibuster.
Thus far, all but a few polls put him leading likely Republican candidate Josh Mandel (state Treasurer) by double digits, with the lone outliers being from - where else? - Rasmussen. However, two factors make this race tougher than it may look. First, there is the fact that Ohio is a purplish-red State, leaning slightly Republican in the past decades. Second, the Chamber of Commerce has vowed to do what it takes to bring Sen. Brown down - and they're already launching hit-piece ads against him.
TIER 5: Safe seats. Here, the Democrats can bank on victory. (Total: 11)
California: Three-term incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) is basically a shoo-in for a fourth full term. And a fifth term. And so on, until she dies or retires. California is blue enough that even 2010 couldn't turn it red, and Sen. Feinstein is well-resourced, fairly popular and an experienced campaigner. It shouldn't even be close. (My bet: Di-Fi by 20 points in November.)
Delaware: Popular two-term Senator Tom Carper is a shoo-in for a third term. Delaware is a strongly-blue State, and Sen. Carper has a long track record of pleasing his fellow Diamond Staters.
Hawaii: I've seen plenty of noise about Governor Linda Lingle (R-HI), thank you. However, any poll that isn't from Team Case shows Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-HI) crushing all opposition in both the primary and the general election. Not to mention President Obama's extreme popularity in Hawaii, and the generally deep-blue hue of the Aloha State.
Maryland: Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) is a likeable, popular Senator. Even his opponents acknowledge this, which says a lot about their opinion of their chances to unseat him. Basically, the only reason anyone's running against him at all is to get name recognition and a statewide campaign apparatus set up to make a run for another Maryland office later.
Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is polling well over 50% in every poll put out - it seems that Minnesotans like the job their senior Senator is doing, and who am I to argue? Odd, that a State can send both people like Sen. Klobuchar (A quietly-effective liberal) and Rep. Michele Bachmann to Washington. Go figure.
New York: Centrist Representative turned liberal Senator Kirsten Gellibrand has already proven she can win, and win easily, in New York. 2012 shouldn't even be close.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey should easily cruise to re-election. He's a moderately liberal Catholic Democrat, from a moderately liberal, Democratic-leaning and heavily-Catholic State. If a Republican with name recognition (such as former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) - oh, wait) should jump into the race, and if the GOP spends a ton of money attacking Sen. Casey, things might change - but that's two "if"s in a row before he even has to sweat. As it is, he should win comfortably unless something really changes here.
Rhode Island: If former Governor Don Carcieri (R-RI) had put his hat into the ring to challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), there might be something in this race. But Gov. Carcieri has emphatically declined to do so (citing correctly that a Governor's job and a Senator's job require different skill-sets and attitudes), and as a result, Sen. Whitehouse - an outspoken liberal representing an outspokenly-liberal State - is leading in every poll by at least 10 points.
Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I-VT) isn't technically a Democrat - they're too conservative for him. But he's well-known, he's extremely popular in Vermont, the Democrats have declined to split his vote, and he's polling 60% or better against all comers. I just wish the man were 30 years younger, the better to stay in the Senate longer.
Washington: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) is in an excellent position to win a third term in the Senate this year, leading all comers by healthy margins and polling at or over 50% in most polls. Given the blue nature of Washington, that's unlikely to chance between now and Election Day.
West Virginia: A conservative Democrat, former Governor (and current Senator) Joe Manchin was sweating bullets in 2010, once it became clear how big the Republican wave would be. In the end, he pulled a 10-point win over businessman John Raese, and looks set to double that - at least - this year. If Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) had entered, he might have had to fight. As it is, Joe Manchin will still be in the Senate in 2013, and apparently drifting ever so slowly to the left over time.
Part 2: Pickup opportunities and strategy will be found here.