I drew this map over the break as a follow up to my wildly successful map of Pennsylvania. It was my intention to put off publishing it until New York finalized their own map, which at the time looked like it was going to be a compromise between Republicans and Democrats. That, though, doesn't seem likely anymore because - as we found out yesterday - the courts may be taking the issue up on their own as a result of the legislature's profound foot-dragging.
A note on the pacing of the diary: I'll be working my way backwards from upstate to downstate. There won't be references to which districts were dismantled apart from the obvious ninth. In addition to that, there are more minority districts now than there were prior. I let these emerge naturally, except for perhaps the new fifth which I forced into existence. By my count this map is approximately 2 Republican, 4 Swing (Hochul, King, Bishop, and Grimm), and 21 Democratic. And I think we'd be favored in all of those swing districts even in a neutral environment.
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District 27. Cyan.
57.3 Obama, 41.1 McCain.
52.1 Democratic, 47.9 Republican.
This district is based in Western New York's Buffalo. Don't let the weak Democratic performance of the district fool you as Paladino was uniquely strong here during the 2010 campaign: this district is safely Democratic in even the worst years so Brian Higgins will have this seat until he decides to retire.
District 26. Yellow.
52.4 Obama, 46.0 McCain.
50.1 Democratic, 49.9 Republican.
This district is where the action is. I toyed with the idea of completely dismantling the earmuffs, but that would ruin any chance of a Hochul election as it would push her and Tom Reed into the same district. This iteration of the earmuffs is vastly less Democratic as it loses all of the Rochester core. Obama still won the district though, and Democrats still outpoll Republicans even with Paladino's unique support in the area, so I'm ranking this one as likely Democratic with Hochul and tossup without.
District 25. Red.
42.7 Obama, 55.7 McCain.
43.3 Democratic, 56.7 Republican.
Tom Reed will be super safe in this super Republican vote sink whose only Democratic city, Elmira, is impossible to remove because it is too damn close to the Pennsylvanian border.
District 24. Purple.
58.7 Obama, 40.0 McCain.
58.9 Democratic, 41.1 Republican.
Louise Slaughter now gets a purely Rochester based House seat for her pleasure. Instead of having two large pockets of population, which creates a situation where being representative to your constituency is difficult, she only has one. No Republican, even in years like 2010 could come close to winning this safe Democratic district.
District 23. Green.
55.7 Obama, 42.5 McCain.
58.0 Democratic, 42.0 Republican.
Oh look at me! I tossed Ann Marie Buerkle and Richard Hanna into the same district and this district is as Democratic as Buerkle's current D+3 25th. A primary battle between the two would be guaranteed as Hanna's 24th is completely dismantled - both population bases from his old district have been placed in separate districts - and such a primary would ensure that a Democratic would emerge victorious in the general election in a district that, at minimum, leans Democratic.
District 22. Blue.
56.2 Obama, 42.1 McCain.
55.9 Democratic, 44.1 Republican.
I suppose that Hanna could run here as the district is now incumbentless (Maurice Hinchey recently decided to retire). This district, sucks for him, is also D+3. If Hinchey had decided to seek reelection I'd rank this as safely Democratic, but without a Democratic incumbent here I'm hesitant to place it above likely. I probably would have bumped up the Democratic percentage here slightly had I drawn the map without Hinchey in mind.
District 21. Black.
53.6 Obama, 44.8 McCain.
55.6 Democratic, 44.4 Republican.
Bill Owens gets some tremendous help here in his North Country district which moves from R+1 to D+2. It comes, however, at a cost: the fact that he adds an entirely new population base in the form of Saratoga Springs and its environs means that he could be vulnerable to a primary challenge. So, if no primary challenge materializes the district is likely Democratic. If a primary challenge does come out of the woodwork and Bill Owens survives, the district probably just leans his way. If he loses the primary? It probably falls back to a Republican and stays that way in perpetuity. These, interestingly, are conditional upon the ideology of the Republican where I assume someone in the mold of Dede Scozzafava, but we all know what happened to her! She got scozzafavad... by Doug Hoffman.
District 20. Cyan.
46.3 Obama, 52.1 McCain.
49.1 Democratic, 50.9 Republican.
This is the second Republican vote sink upstate and, oddly, I'd say that a Democratic still stands the off chance of being elected here despite the poor Obama performance. Even still, the district is clearly likely Republican. Interestingly, it would also be incumbentless from a functional point of view (there is no current district even remotely like it) and in actuality: noone lives here.
District 19. Yellow.
57.9 Obama, 40.2 McCain.
59.5 Democratic, 40.5 Republican.
Paul Tonko's Albany based district stays exactly where it is in terms of partisanship. Still safely Democratic and really not much to talk about here.
District 18. Red.
56.0 Obama, 42.7 McCain.
56.9 Democratic, 43.1 Republican.
Another instance of Republican on Republican cat fud! Nan Hayworth and Chris Gibson have been thrown in together here in a district that is much more Democratic than their R+3 and R+2 districts at D+3-4ish. I'm not sure it matters which one makes it out of the primary as the district is more likely to fall than not to the Democratic nominee. Likely Democratic.
District 17. Black.
66.2 Obama, 33.2 McCain.
68.2 Democratic, 31.8 Republican.
45.9 White, 29.8 Black, 17.2 Hispanic.
This district is practically identical to the current 17th. Same population base, same demographic profile, same incumbent, and even the same number. Safely Democratic.
District 15. Green.
61.1 Obama, 38.0 McCain.
60.1 Democratic, 39.9 Republican.
62.7 White, 21.3 Hispanic.
Same for all the above save for the number, which in this case is the 18th.
District 13. Cyan.
52.3 Obama, 46.9 McCain.
54.3 Democratic, 45.7 Republican.
58.0 White, 18.9 Hispanic, 14.2 Asian.
This district moves from one that is R+4 to one that is around D+0. Although still leans Republican, with the right Democrat we could easily take this district and hold it until the demographics make it much more favorable for us. In fact, it may not even take the best Democrat, as the Republicans who hold this district have histories of being absolutely fucking insane and the current one is no exception.
District 4. Cyan.
55.0 Obama, 44.2 McCain.
56.9 Democratic, 43.1 Republican.
65.4 White, 15.3 Hispanic, 13.5 Black.
Under normal circumstances I'd be very hesitant to call this district likely Democratic with the weak Obama numbers, but the minority percentages give us a reasonable floor here and we have an exceptional Democratic incumbent in the form of McCarthy. Likely Democratic.
District 3. Purple.
53.2 Obama, 46.0 McCain.
55.5 Democratic, 44.5 Republican.
69.6 White, 16.4 Asian, 9.4 Hispanic.
This is the Peter King v. Gary Ackerman district. Despite the Obama performance here, I'm going to call this one a tossup. I wasn't willing to put a total nail through King's coffin because it would have required weakening the 1st, 2nd, and 4th to levels that I wasn't comfortable with. As it is, this district is already something we can win and that was all I wanted to do. Making it more than that just isn't in the cards this time around, but demographic trends in the Ackerman portions of the district (Asian growth) really portend the end of King eventually anyway. I also wasn't willing to sacrifice more Asians from my wonderful new 5th district to boost the Democratic performance here.
District 2. Green.
54.9 Obama, 44.2 McCain.
57.3 Democratic, 42.7 Republican.
64.8 White, 19.8 Hispanic, 9.0 Black.
Steve Israel gets confined to the southern half of Long Island and takes a very slight hit in his PVI from D+4 to D+3ish. I wouldn't really be too worried about him though.
District 1. Blue.
51.9 Obama, 47.0 McCain.
54.7 Democratic, 45.3 Republican.
The Bishop district is just ever so slightly more Democratic. I wouldn't be worried too much about him either as he was able to survive the 2010 wave.
District 5. Blue.
70.4 Obama, 28.9 McCain.
74.0 Democratic, 26.0 Republican.
37.5 Asian, 26.0 White, 19.8 Hispanic, 10.9 Black.
Yay! An Asian district that should elect a Chinese American. This is long overdue in New York City.
District 6. Red.
74.1 Obama, 25.4 McCain.
74.2 Democratic, 25.8 Republican.
41.6 Black, 31.8 White, 15.2 Hispanic.
This district was nigh impossible to maintain as majority African American in my map. Oh well, Meeks should be safe here anyway.
District 7. Purple.
89.4 Obama, 10.2 McCain.
89.1 Democratic, 10.3 Republican.
57.1 Hispanic, 24.8 Black, 11.4 White.
Currently this area is cracked between multiple different district. Unfortunately for Joseph Crowley, it is now completely possible to draw another Hispanic majority district.
District 8. Yellow.
61.4 Obama, 37.7 McCain.
65.8 Democratic, 34.2 Republican.
63.8 White, 19.0 Asian, 12.7 Hispanic.
I used this district as one of three to crack the Orthodox Jewish areas of Bob Turner's district as Jerrold Nadler is Jewish and may be able to work these areas back into the Democratic fold (with some effort, but still probably not).
District 9. Cyan.
89.6 Obama, 9.6 McCain.
88.3 Democratic, 11.7 Republican.
42.9 White, 21.4 Hispanic, 18.9 Black, 14.7 Asian.
This is one of two districts that I use to destroy the absolutely awful Rangel's current 15th. It's actually an entirely new creation designed to elect a super liberal white congresscritter in the mold of, perhaps, Chelsea Clinton (who was rumored to want to run somewhere when I was drawing the map).
District 10. Purple.
88.5 Obama, 11.1 McCain.
88.9 Democratic, 11.1 Republican.
51.9 Black, 25.5 White, 15.2 Hispanic.
This district is also one of three used to decimate the Turner district, but Towns should still be safe here as the district is still majority black and it doesn't matter how far to the right the Orthodox vote goes and grows the district will still elect in a knee jerk manner the Democratic candidate.
District 11. Red.
87.6 Obama, 11.8 McCain.
88.1 Democratic, 11.9 Republican.
50.1 Black, 30.2 White, 12.3 Hispanic.
Rinse and repeat. Clarke is safe here.
District 12. Yellow.
79.0 Obama, 20.3 McCain.
80.9 Democratic, 19.1 Republican.
53.4 Hispanic, 22.0 White, 14.5 Asian.
Nydia Velazquez's district now gets confined to the eastern portions of her old 12th and it is now actually majority Hispanic as opposed to the ~44% from before.
District 14. Black.
78.0 Obama, 21.1 McCain.
75.5 Democratic, 24.5 Republican.
65.9 White, 15.7 Hispanic, 12.2 Asian.
Carolyn Maloney's district is almost exactly the same as her current district, except she now gets some of the white areas of Brooklyn.
District 16. Green.
91.8 Obama, 7.7 McCain.
92.1 Democratic, 7.9 Republican.
60.6 Hispanic, 23.0 Black, 12.7 White.
If I'm not mistaken, Jose Serrano's district is now the most Democratic in the nation. It is also now not the only majority Hispanic district in New York City! So, by my count, that makes 3 Hispanic districts, 2 Black majority district and 1 plurality district, and 1 Asian plurality district.