Romney: 36These numbers show the potential for a considerably closer Arizona election than has been expected. Before this survey came out, Nate Silver's poll-based forecast projected Mitt Romney as the winner in Arizona by just over 8 points, so while Romney is certainly pleased to still be in the lead, he has reason to be concerned.
One thing that should trouble him: Santorum actually has a stronger net favorable rating (+34) in Arizona than Romney (+24). And if Newt Gingrich weren't a candidate, Santorum would actually enjoy a narrow lead over Romney, 43 percent to 41 percent. Even if Gingrich doesn't quit the race, Santorum should be able to chip away at some of his support, making the case that it is a waste to vote for Gingrich. Between that and Romney's narrow lead, these numbers suggest that Arizona could be ripe for an upset victory by Santorum.