Skip to main content

The court did not draw Massachusetts' new map, as Democrats have total control. This map is intended as a neutral “baseline” to measure how much of an edge the Democrats got from their eventual map. I tried to keep cities, counties, and metro areas together where possible. Apart from 1 and 2 in the west and 9 in the southeast, I picked the district numbers to provide the best color contrast. The map lists D/R “averages” for the district but these appear to be based mainly on Martha Coakley's virtuoso performance in the 2010 special election because 5 of the 9 districts are shown as having a sizable GOP edge and one of the others is about 50-50. PVIs are based on the 2008 presidential election.

State map: (the offscreen stuff is all in MA9)

mass

Boston closeup:

boston

MA1: Springfield-based district including Hampshire county just north of it and most of Berkshire county at the far west end of the state. D+14.1, 56.9 D average. Safe D.

MA2: Worcester-based district that had to pick up rural Franklin county and the northeast corner of Berkshire because they wouldn't fit anywhere else. D+5.9, 46.0 D average. Very likely D.

MA3: Mostly the west end of Middlesex county, but with much of the northeastern fringe of Worcester county. D+4.4, 43.9 D average. Likely D.

MA4: Boston, Brookline, Winthrop, and almost all of Chelsea. D+26.1, 71.8 D average. Safe D.

MA5: Southern Boston burbs plus Newton, Watertown, and the Framingham area further west. D+9.9, 51.0 D average. Safe D.

MA6: northern Boston burbs. D+15.5, 59.1 D average. Safe D.

MA7: Essex county, less Lynnfield and a small piece of Andover. D+7.1, 45.7 D average. Very likely D.

MA8: Bristol county plus southern Norfolk and a small piece of Plymouth. D+6.5, 45.5 D average. Very likely D.

MA9: Plymouth county less Lakeville and Mattapoisett, plus the cape, the islands, and Cohasset which for some bizarre reason declined to follow its neighbors Hull and Hingham into Plymouth county in 1803. D+2.3, 42.7 D average. Lean D.

Only a few towns ended up being split:
Gardner has 1 precinct in MA2, the other 10 in MA3.
Wayland has 1 precinct in MA3, the other 3 in MA5.
Andover has 1 precinct in MA3, the other 8 in MA7.
Waltham has 2 precincts in MA5, the other 16 in MA6.
Millis has 1 precinct in MA5, the other 2 in MA8.
Chelsea has 1 precinct in MA6, the other 15 in MA4.

The GOP would be able to compete in MA9 in most years, MA3 in some years, and MA2, 7, and 8 in red wave years. On average, I think they would win maybe 1 of the 9 districts. Thoughts?

Poll

How many of these seats would the GOP win in 2012?

68%15 votes
13%3 votes
18%4 votes

| 22 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site