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Update #3 from CNN:

The Michigan Secretary of State's Office on Tuesday estimated turnout in the Republican primary will represent between 15% and 20% of registered voters.

If the prediction holds, the figure would represent a decrease from the 21% who participated in the 2008 contest. Michigan hosts an open GOP primary, which means any registered voter may participate.

Even with Democrats participating at some level, Republicans don't really care if it's Mitt or Rick or Newt or Ron.


1:53 PM PT: Turnout low in Grand Blanc

By 3 p.m., only 7.4 percent of registered voters had cast their ballots in today's election, which includes the Republican presidential primary and the special election to fill recalled state Rep. Paul Scott's seat in the state House.
Turn-out in today’s presidential primary election looks to be about the same or less than it was four years ago, according to a sampling of clerks in key precincts the Free Press is using to analyze the vote.

“The absentee voter ballot requests are pretty much the same as last time,” said Farmington Hills City Clerk Pam Smith. “We’re right on par with that and we’re planning for that kind of turnout.”

Detroit Free Press

The low absentee ballot requests may be a blow to team Romney, which has been relying on early voting to help tamp down the Santorum surge. And in general, low turnout means the more partisan voters are over represented. That too favors Rick.

Operation Hilarity may not be having much effect.

She [Port Huron Township Clerk Benita Davis] did say that she'd seen very little evidence of Democratic voters choosing to crossover into the Republican primary. Some of the Santorum-backed robocalls aimed at turning out Democrats for Santorum were reported in the area. Davis, a Democrat, said she received a couple herself.
In Grandville, Clerk Mary Meines said fewer than 5% of voters in the middle class neighborhoods that comprise Precinct 6 had shown up early. Meines said she hadn't seen many signs of intense interest in the primary, despite several local appearances by Romney, Santorum and Paul.
This election has a larger than normal importance in the grand scheme of things, and Michiganders can't be bothered. I hereby predict Santorum will win by about 3%.

11:29 AM PT: Turnout picking up in suburban Oakland township (NW of Detroit):

My guess would be this is Romney country.

11:37 AM PT: Turnout low in "key" counties of Kent, Macomb,  Marquette


Your prediction for the results in Michigan?

5%12 votes
14%33 votes
40%93 votes
20%47 votes
3%9 votes
2%5 votes
0%2 votes
1%4 votes
10%23 votes

| 228 votes | Vote | Results

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