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As some of you, I'm sure, already know, a federal court today ordered an interim Congressional district map for the 2012 elections.

Now, there's no guarantee that these districts will last through the end of the decade, or even through the 2014 election.  It's quite possible that these districts will be overturned by the DOJ or that Republicans will go in and try to do things all over again in a couple of years.

But, thanks to the wealth of information available at the Texas Legislative Council, we already have plenty of data.  You can see the map here.

So, for each of Texas's 36 Congressional districts, I've provided the following data.

Incumbent
Demographic breakdown
Breakdown of Voting Age Population (VAP)
Hispanic Citizen Voting Age Population (HCVAP): I'm guessing that the percentages of white and black people of voting age don't differ too much from the percentage who are citizens, but that's not the case for Hispanics.
2010 Governor's race results (statewide, Rick Perry beat Democrat Bill White 55-42)
2008 Presidential race results
2004 Presidential race results
2002 Governor's race results (statewide, Rick Perry beat Democrat Tony Sanchez 59-41)

The two gubernatorial races should give you a pretty good idea of the general trend of the voting in various districts.

Join me below the jump for the full breakdown.

1st District
Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)
Demographics: 64.4% white, 18.5% black, 15.5% Hispanic, 1.9% other
VAP Demographics: 68.2% white, 17.7% black, 12.3% Hispanic, 1.9% other
HCVAP: 5.8%
2010 Governor: Perry, 66-31
2008 President: McCain, 69-30
2004 President: Bush, 70-30
2002 Governor: Perry, 65-35

East Texas will continue to get quality representation from a certifiably sane person.

2nd District
Incumbent: Ted Poe (R-Humble)
Demographics: 50.8% white, 10.5% black, 30.8% Hispanic, 8.5% other
VAP Demographics: 55.0% white, 9.6% black, 27.3% Hispanic, 8.6% other
HCVAP: 17.6%
2010 Governor: Perry, 60-38
2008 President: McCain, 62-37
2004 President: Bush, 68-32
2002 Governor: Perry, 71-29

This snakelike district, which goes from the far northeast corner of Harris County to the west side of Houston, is certainly a Republican district, but also one that appears to be trending toward Team Blue.  The overall population is just barely majority white and figures not to be in the near future.  While it's not particularly interesting now, this district is one that, if current trends hold up (and the maps aren't changed), could be competitive by the end of the decade.

3rd District
Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R-Plano)
Demographics: 62.4% white, 9.3% black, 14.5% Hispanic, 14.2% other
VAP Demographics: 65.3% white, 8.6% black, 12.8% Hispanic, 13.5% other
HCVAP: 8.4%
2010 Governor: Perry, 64-34
2008 President: McCain, 61-37
2004 President: Bush, 71-29
2002 Governor: Perry, 75-25

The 3rd District is now entirely within Collin County, which is now big enough to have a Congressional district to itself.  It's also very Republican, and while it's less so than it was at the beginning of the decade, it's still got a ways to go before it could be considered competitive.  Note the high proportion of the "other" (mostly Asian) population here.

4th District
Incumbent: Ralph Hall (R-Rockwall)
Demographics: 73.8% white, 11.5% black, 12.2% Hispanic, 2.7% other
VAP Demographics: 77.1% white, 10.7% black, 9.7% Hispanic, 2.6% other
HCVAP: 5.1%
2010 Governor: Perry, 64-33
2008 President: McCain, 70-29
2004 President: Bush, 69-31
2002 Governor: Perry, 63-37

This district hasn't changed a whole lot, remaining a northeast Texas/exurban Dallas district.  It's also the whitest district in Texas.  Like the 1st District, despite doing worse statewide, Rick Perry actually did better here in 2010 than in 2002, so this district's clearly going the wrong way.

5th District
Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)
Demographics: 57.2% white, 14.9% black, 25.2% Hispanic, 3.1% other
VAP Demographics: 62.3% white, 13.9% black, 21.0% Hispanic, 3.0% other
HCVAP: 10.9%
2010 Governor: Perry, 59-38
2008 President: McCain, 62-37
2004 President: Bush, 66-34
2002 Governor: Perry, 64-36

The Dallas County section of this district actually looks fairly Democrat-friendly, as it's 19.5% black and 37.4% Hispanic.  But the exurban and rural territory in the rest of the district should keep it in Republican hands for the foreseeable future.  Hensarling should remain safe.

6th District
Incumbent: Joe Barton (R-Ennis)
Demographics: 54.3% white, 19.3% black, 20.8% Hispanic, 6.2% other
VAP Demographics: 58.9% white, 17.5% black, 17.7% Hispanic, 6.2% other
HCVAP: 12.1%
2010 Governor: Perry, 56-41
2008 President: McCain, 57-42
2004 President: Bush, 66-34
2002 Governor: Perry, 65-35

The new 6th is far more Metroplex-centric under the new maps, and the Tarrant County portion of this district (which includes most of Arlington) is actually pretty darn swingy (and getting moreso, as Arlington sees demographic change.)  So this could become more of a trouble spot for Republicans toward the end of the decade.  It doesn't hurt that Asshat Joe Barton is its representative.

7th District
Incumbent: John Culberson (R-Houston)
Demographics: 47.3% white, 12.4% black, 30.1% Hispanic, 10.9% other
VAP Demographics: 50.9% white, 11.6% black, 27.0% Hispanic, 11.0% other
HCVAP: 15.5%
2010 Governor: Perry, 57-42
2008 President: McCain, 59-40
2004 President: Bush, 66-34
2002 Governor: Perry, 72-28

Another potential trouble spot for Republicans down the road.  While it's not majority white any more, a significant portion of the Hispanic population are not citizens.  And given that this is a rather wealthy district, there may be something of a cap on how well Democrats can do here.  But it's worth watching.

8th District
Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)
Demographics: 68.4% white, 8.9% black, 19.7% Hispanic, 3.4% other
VAP Demographics: 71.6% white, 8.7% black, 16.7% Hispanic, 3.2% other
HCVAP: 9.9%
2010 Governor: Perry, 70-27
2008 President: McCain, 73-26
2004 President: Bush, 75-25
2002 Governor: Perry, 74-26.

Umm... ouch.

9th District
Incumbent: Al Green (D-Houston)
Demographics: 11.5% white, 40.3% black, 37.3% Hispanic, 12.0% other
VAP Demographics: 13.9% white, 39.6% black, 34.0% Hispanic, 13.4% other
HCVAP: 18.8%
2010 Governor: White, 76-22
2008 President: Obama, 76-23
2004 President: Kerry, 69-31
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 67-33

This is a Democratic vote sink where Green should continue to win as long as he wants.

10th District
Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R-Austin)
Demographics: 57.5% white, 11.2% black, 26.3% Hispanic, 5.6% other
VAP Demographics: 61.6% white, 10.5% black, 22.8% Hispanic, 5.5% other
HCVAP: 14.3%
2010 Governor: Perry, 56-41
2008 President: McCain, 56-43
2004 President: Bush, 62-38
2002 Governor: Perry, 66-34

This Austin-to-Houston district isn't a completely safe Republican district, but it's not a whole lot different from the one that Democrats failed to win in 2006 and 2008.  The Cypress area of Harris County does a lot to keep this seat in the Republican column.

11th District
Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R-Midland)
Demographics: 61.0% white, 4.3% black, 33.3% Hispanic, 1.9% other
VAP Demographics: 65.7% white, 3.8% black, 28.8% Hispanic, 1.9% other
HCVAP: 23.5%
2010 Governor: Perry, 73-24
2008 President: McCain, 76-23
2004 President: Bush, 78-22
2002 Governor: Perry, 72-28

This district, which stretches from the New Mexico border to the outskirts of DFW, is inhospitable territory for a Democrat.

12th District
Incumbent: Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)
Demographics: 66.4% white, 8.6% black, 20.6% Hispanic, 4.7% other
VAP Demographics: 70.6% white, 7.8% black, 17.2% Hispanic, 4.6% other
HCVAP: 11.8%
2010 Governor: Perry, 62-34
2008 President: McCain, 64-35
2004 President: Bush, 68-32
2002 Governor: Perry, 65-35

This district, consisting of Fort Worth and some of its western suburbs and exurbs, should elect a Republican for the foreseeable future.

13th District
Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)
Demographics: 67.0% white, 6.1% black, 24.1% Hispanic, 3.2% other
VAP Demographics: 71.4% white, 5.6% black, 20.2% Hispanic, 3.1% other
HCVAP: 14.5%
2010 Governor: Perry, 72-25
2008 President: McCain, 77-22
2004 President: Bush, 78-22
2002 Governor: Perry, 72-28

This district, running from the Panhandle all the way to some of the northwest DFW exurbs, is one of the most Republican in the country.

14th District
Incumbent: OPEN
Demographics: 53.3% white, 21.2% black, 22.1% Hispanic, 3.9% other
VAP Demographics: 56.9% white, 20.3% black, 19.2% Hispanic, 3.8% other
HCVAP: 13.7%
2010 Governor: Perry, 56-42
2008 President: McCain, 57-42
2004 President: Bush, 57-43
2002 Governor: Perry, 53-47

While this district leans Republican, it's worth a look.  The swap of some rural territory south and west of Houston, and addition of the Beaumont/Port Arthur area, makes this district considerably less Republican (though it's actually trending the wrong way.)  Nick Lampson is probably the best candidate Democrats could have gotten, and with Ron Paul retiring this could be a pickup opportunity.

15th District
Incumbent: Ruben Hinojosa (D-Mercedes)
Demographics: 16.3% white, 2.0% black, 80.6% Hispanic, 1.5% other
VAP Demographics: 19.4% white, 2.1% black, 77.2% Hispanic, 1.6% other
HCVAP: 71.1%
2010 Governor: White, 54-44
2008 President: Obama, 57-42
2004 President: Bush, 54-46
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 58-42

While this district, which stretches from McAllen to Guadalupe County near San Antonio, voted for George W. Bush, it should be a safe district for Democrats in Congressional elections.

16th District
Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)
Demographics: 14.7% white, 4.1% black, 80.1% Hispanic, 1.9% other
VAP Demographics: 17.0% white, 3.8% black, 77.6% Hispanic, 2.1% other
HCVAP: 73.1%
2010 Governor: White, 60-38
2008 President: Obama, 64-35
2004 President: Kerry, 55-45
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 63-37

Containing most of El Paso County, this district is heavily Hispanic and solidly Democratic.

17th District
Incumbent: Bill Flores (R-College Station)
Demographics: 57.7% white, 14.5% black, 23.3% Hispanic, 5.2% other
VAP Demographics: 62.2% white, 13.0% black, 19.8% Hispanic, 5.3% other
HCVAP: 14.4%
2010 Governor: Perry, 56-41
2008 President: McCain, 58-41
2004 President: Bush, 63-37
2002 Governor: Perry, 63-37

It's really a shame that Chet Edwards lost in 2010, as he could have won in this district, which loses some right-wing DFW exurbs and picks up a portion of Travis County.  Of course, if Edwards had won in 2010, surely the Republicans wouldn't have given him this district...

18th District
Incumbent: Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston)
Demographics: 16.7% white, 41.4% black, 38.7% Hispanic, 4.1% other
VAP Demographics: 20.2% white, 41.4% black, 34.5% Hispanic, 4.5% other
HCVAP: 20.3%
2010 Governor: White, 76-23
2008 President: Obama, 77-23
2004 President: Kerry, 70-30
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 71-29

Nothing to see here, folks.  (Although notably a large number of the Hispanics in this district aren't citizens, which insulates Jackson Lee from a Hispanic primary challenge.)

19th District
Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock)
Demographics: 57.4% white, 6.9% black, 33.9% Hispanic, 2.4% other
VAP Demographics: 62.1% white, 6.2% black, 29.5% Hispanic, 2.5% other
HCVAP: 25.3%
2010 Governor: Perry, 68-28
2008 President: McCain, 71-28
2004 President: Bush, 77-23
2002 Governor: Perry, 70-30

This Lubbock/Abilene district is very tough sledding for a Democrat.

20th District
Incumbent: OPEN
Demographics: 23.0% white, 5.8% black, 68.6% Hispanic, 3.6% other
VAP Demographics: 26.3% white, 5.5% black, 64.9% Hispanic, 3.8% other
HCVAP: 62.3%
2010 Governor: White, 56-41
2008 President: Obama, 58-41
2004 President: Kerry, 50.23-49.77
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 56-44

This district shifts westward in San Antonio and gets a bit redder, going from a 63% Obama district to a 58% one, though it's still not likely to elect a Republican.  Charlie Gonzalez is retiring, and in the game of musical chairs, I'm not sure whether Ciro Rodriguez or Joaquin Castro is going to run here to replace him.

21st District
Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)
Demographics: 64.8% white, 4.1% black, 27.0% Hispanic, 4.5% other
VAP Demographics: 68.3% white, 3.6% black, 23.9% Hispanic, 4.5% other
HCVAP: 20.5%
2010 Governor: Perry, 58-39
2008 President: McCain, 56-42
2004 President: Bush, 63-37
2002 Governor: Perry, 68-32

I really hate Lamar Smith for being the author of SOPA.  The changes to his district are subtle, but it's actually going from a 59% McCain district to a 56% one, and as such might be a slight pickup opportunity for a Dem, particularly since it looks like a heavily Democratic area of central Austin is now in the district.

22nd District
Incumbent: Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)
Demographics: 45.0% white, 13.4% black, 24.6% Hispanic, 17.5% other
VAP Demographics: 48.0% white, 12.7% black, 22.3% Hispanic, 17.4% other
HCVAP: 18.2%
2010 Governor: Perry, 60-38
2008 President: McCain, 60-39
2004 President: Bush, 67-33
2002 Governor: Perry, 69-31

This district wasn't changed a great deal, still remaining centered on Fort Bend County.  In spite of its diversity, it's a fairly strong Republican district, though a Democrat won a similar district in 2006.

23rd District
Incumbent: Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio)
Demographics: 25.5% white, 3.6% black, 69.3% Hispanic, 2.1% other
VAP Demographics: 28.9% white, 3.6% black, 65.8% Hispanic, 2.1% other
HCVAP: 60.6%
2010 Governor: Perry, 52-46
2008 President: Obama, 50-49
2004 President: Bush, 58-42
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 51-49

Honestly... what the hell kind of person votes for President Obama AND Rick Perry?  Anyway, this is a very swingy district that neither party will have an easy time holding on to.  The two main population centers are in Bexar County (San Antonio) and El Paso; the Bexar County portion of this district includes some upscale areas.  The border counties in between are a diverse lot, but most of them don't cast many votes.

24th District
Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)
Demographics: 53.4% white, 11.0% black, 23.4% Hispanic, 12.6% other
VAP Demographics: 57.5% white, 10.3% black, 20.3% Hispanic, 12.2% other
HCVAP: 12.6%
2010 Governor: Perry, 61-36
2008 President: McCain, 58-41
2004 President: Bush, 67-33
2002 Governor: Perry, 71-29

One side effect of creating a new Democratic district in the Metroplex was that the 24th -- which was quickly becoming a danger spot for Republicans -- was made a bit safer.  In all likelihood, this district should become bluer as the Carrollton area continues to diversify, but there's now enough of a cushion that Marchant should make it through the end of the decade.

25th District
Incumbent: OPEN
Demographics: 70.3% white, 8.3% black, 17.3% Hispanic, 4.6% other
VAP Demographics: 73.5% white, 7.5% black, 14.8% Hispanic, 4.5% other
HCVAP: 10.7%
2010 Governor: Perry, 55-41
2008 President: McCain, 56-43
2004 President: Bush, 62-38
2002 Governor: Perry, 63-37

While technically Lloyd Doggett lives in this district, he's already announced that he won't run here, and it's easy to see why.  While this district, which extends from San Marcos up to Fort Worth, is at least realistically winnable for a Democrat, it's not really a good shot.

26th District
Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)
Demographics: 68.4% white, 7.8% black, 17.3% Hispanic, 6.9% other
VAP Demographics: 71.4% white, 7.2% black, 15.0% Hispanic, 6.6% other
HCVAP: 9.7%
2010 Governor: Perry, 66-31
2008 President: McCain, 64-35
2004 President: Bush, 72-28
2002 Governor: Perry, 74-26

The redness of this district might actually be understated.  A large portion of the Democratic vote here comes from college students, many of whom won't be voting here thanks to Texas's new voter registration laws.  In any case, this district loses a large chunk of Fort Worth and now consists of Denton County and the Keller area of Tarrant County and is very inhospitable for Team Blue.

27th District
Incumbent: Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi)
Demographics: 42.8% white, 6.0% black, 49.5% Hispanic, 2.3% other
VAP Demographics: 47.2% white, 5.6% black, 45.1% Hispanic, 2.4% other
HCVAP: 41.7%
2010 Governor: Perry, 57-40
2008 President: McCain, 59-40
2004 President: Bush, 63-37
2002 Governor: Perry, 57-43

While still numbered the 27th, this district, which extends from Corpus Christi to Austin, looks absolutely nothing like the old 27th; the only commonality is Corpus Christi, home of Blake Farenthold.  This district should elect a Republican, but given all the new territory, that Republican may not necessarily be Farenthold.

28th District
Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)
Demographics: 17.8% white, 5.0% black, 76.3% Hispanic, 1.5% other
VAP Demographics: 21.1% white, 4.8% black, 72.7% Hispanic, 1.7% other
HCVAP: 66.1%
2010 Governor: White, 57-40
2008 President: Obama, 58-41
2004 President: Bush, 53-47
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 66-34

This district didn't change a whole lot, remaining a heavily Hispanic and Democratic district.

29th District
Incumbent: Gene Green (D-Houston)
Demographics: 11.8% white, 10.7% black, 76.3% Hispanic, 2.0% other
VAP Demographics: 14.8% white, 10.7% black, 72.7% Hispanic, 2.3% other
HCVAP: 58.4%
2010 Governor: White, 67-32
2008 President: Obama, 62-37
2004 President: Kerry, 56-44
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 65-35

Although Texas Republicans would be much happier if white Democrats did not exist (since it's harmful to their whole idea that Republicans are the Party of White People), they apparently can't do anything to make a 76% Hispanic district not vote for Gene Green.  Yeesh... that's a LOT of non-citizens, though.

30th District
Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)
Demographics: 17.3% white, 46.3% black, 34.7% Hispanic, 2.5% other
VAP Demographics: 21.4% white, 46.4% black, 30.1% Hispanic, 2.7% other
HCVAP: 17.2%
2010 Governor: White, 77-21
2008 President: Obama, 78-21
2004 President: Kerry, 70-30
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 72-28

Another side effect of the new Democratic district in DFW: Eddie Bernice Johnson is now insulated from a Hispanic primary challenge, thanks to the removal of some Hispanic areas of Dallas and the addition of some of the black flight suburbs (DeSoto, Cedar Hill) in southwest Dallas County.  This is a bit less of a vote sink than before (it was 82% Obama under the old map) but is still very inhospitable territory for a Republican.

31st District
Incumbent: John Carter (R-Round Rock)
Demographics: 59.5% white, 12.9% black, 22.5% Hispanic, 6.0% other
VAP Demographics: 63.6% white, 11.6% black, 19.5% Hispanic, 5.8% other
HCVAP: 16.0%
2010 Governor: Perry, 58-37
2008 President: McCain, 56-43
2004 President: Bush, 66-34
2002 Governor: Perry, 69-31

This district in Williamson and Bell counties has moved quite rapidly toward the Democrats.  The large military population in Bell County could have something to do with that, as could the northward extension of Austin values into Williamson County.  And I will never, ever forget the fact that John Carter thinks that you get seven cycles in the Kevin Bacon game.

32nd District
Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)
Demographics: 53.3% white, 13.0% black, 25.6% Hispanic, 8.6% other
VAP Demographics: 58.0% white, 11.8% black, 21.9% Hispanic, 8.7% other
HCVAP: 11.9%
2010 Governor: Perry, 55-42
2008 President: McCain, 55-44
2004 President: Bush, 62-38
2002 Governor: Perry, 66-34

While this district, which now consists of north Dallas, Richardson, the far northeast corner of Dallas County, and part of Plano, is still Republican-leaning, it's pretty quickly turning blue.  It's slightly better than Sessions' old district (53% McCain) but he might not be able to hang on to it through the end of the decade if current trends continue.  It does help him, though, that apparently a large portion of the Hispanics here are not citizens.

33rd District
Incumbent: OPEN
Demographics: 14.5% white, 17.2% black, 66.3% Hispanic, 2.7% other
VAP Demographics: 18.4% white, 17.8% black, 61.3% Hispanic, 3.0% other
HCVAP: 39.6%
2010 Governor: White, 68-30
2008 President: Obama, 69-31
2004 President: Kerry, 62-38
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 68-32

Ummmm... wow.  In spite of the fact that 66 percent of the population -- and 61 percent of the voting age population -- is Hispanic, Hispanics are actually a minority of the citizen voting age population.  That's an unusual fact about this district.  This district includes a good chunk of Fort Worth and goes over I-30 to the west side of Dallas, taking in some Hispanic areas of the mid-cities, but it's not entirely clear this district will actually elect a Hispanic.  But you can rest assured that it WILL elect a Democrat.

34th District
Incumbent: OPEN
Demographics: 15.2% white, 1.6% black, 82.7% Hispanic, 1.0% other
VAP Demographics: 18.6% white, 1.7% black, 79.0% Hispanic, 1.1% other
HCVAP: 73.1%
2010 Governor: White, 56-42
2008 President: Obama, 60-39
2004 President: Bush, 51-49
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 60-40

Although this district goes north almost all the way to San Antonio, three quarters of its population resides in the Rio Grande Valley and, as such, its representative will more than likely be a Hispanic Democrat from the Valley.  Note that although a lot of this district was in the old 27th, Blake Farenthold didn't carry much of what's now in the 34th.

35th District
Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)
Demographics: 25.2% white, 10.8% black, 62.8% Hispanic, 2.4% other
VAP Demographics: 29.4% white, 10.4% black, 58.3% Hispanic, 2.6% other
HCVAP: 52.4%
2010 Governor: White, 60-37
2008 President: Obama, 63-35
2004 President: Kerry, 57-43
2002 Governor: Sanchez, 60-40

While not exactly a good district for Doggett, it's the least-bad option, as it's the only Democratic district including a portion of Travis County.  But more of this district is in the San Antonio area than the Austin area, and the primary is likely to be Hispanic-dominated.  So Doggett could very well lose to a primary challenger (either Ciro Rodriguez or Joaquin Castro), but in any case, this district can be counted on to elect a Democrat.

36th District
Incumbent: OPEN
Demographics: 65.8% white, 9.9% black, 21.2% Hispanic, 3.4% other
VAP Demographics: 69.5% white, 9.4% black, 18.0% Hispanic, 3.4% other
HCVAP: 11.8%
2010 Governor: Perry, 65-33
2008 President: McCain, 69-30
2004 President: Bush, 68-32
2002 Governor: Perry, 64-36

The final new district, taking in some suburban and exurban territory east of Houston and some rural territory in southeast Texas, is, shall we say, a Republican district.  This is a rare Texas district in which John McCain actually outperformed George W. Bush.

So from the looks of things, there are 24 Republican districts, 11 Democratic districts, and the uber-swing 23rd District.  There are a few districts in there that are at least winnable for Democrats or could be by the end of the decade, but overall, the courts didn't do Democrats a whole lot of favors in Texas.

Originally posted to Houston Progressive on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 08:45 PM PST.

Also republished by TexKos-Messing with Texas with Nothing but Love for Texans.

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