Without his Super PAC, Mitt Romney would be toast
The good news for Mitt Romney from Michigan is that he won. The bad news is that even though
it cost him and his Super PAC $4.3 million in television and radio advertising, he'll end up splitting the state's delegates with Rick Santorum.
Michigan awards two delegates for each of its 14 congressional districts plus two delegates split proportionally based on statewide vote totals, and as of now, Romney and Santorum are splitting the districts evenly. The results could change, particularly in the current MI-01, but as of now, it's a 15-15 split. If you're doing the math, that works out to a little more than $285,000 per delegate. That's about twice as much as Rick Santorum and his Super PAC spent. (Santorum's campaign is saying it could still win more delegates.)
Arizona was a much better story for Romney: he took 29 delegates in Arizona's winner-take-all primary. His campaign spent nothing and his Super PAC spent a little over $650,000. That means altogether, Romney and his Super PAC spent about $5 million on advertising to win 44 delegates.
That works out to a bit more than $110,000 per delegate on the evening. With Romney about 1,000 delegates shy of the 1,144 it takes to capture the nomination, at that spending pace, Romney would need another $110 million for advertising alone to secure the nomination.
Keep in mind that last night should was a relatively easy night for Mitt Romney. Neither Rick Santorum nor Newt Gingrich contested Arizona, and entering February, Romney's average lead in Michigan—his home state—was 15 points. He led Santorum by an average of 27 points before Santorum's surge. He ended up winning by just 3 points.
But even though last night's win was tougher than it should have been for Romney, it was still easier than the battles he faced in January. Romney and his Super PAC spent $32.6 million in January, acquiring 71 delegates. That works out to about $460,000 per delegate—roughly four times as expensive as his Arizona and Michigan wins. At those prices, $110 million seems cheap.
Going forward, the calendar gets tougher for Romney. He's trailing in Ohio and Georgia, both of which will award more delegates next Tuesday than Arizona and Michigan combined, and with March featuring states like Washington, Alabama, and Mississippi, Romney won't face nearly as favorable ground in most contests as he did on Tuesday night.
And that raises the question: how many more victories can Mitt Romney afford?